“Ohio Senator J.D. Vance said it was preposterous to think … the Ukrainian military was going to force Russian troops back to the border crossed during the invasion in February 2022. Vance told CNN … ‘What’s in America’s best interest is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory … and we need to bring this war […]
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“Shortfall in external aid would push a recovering economy back into survival mode, says deputy prime minister.” “Ukraine may have to postpone pay for public servants and pension payments to millions of its citizens if the EU and U.S. fail to deliver promised financial aid early next year … warn[s] [Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister] Yulia Svyrydenko …. [T]he […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 28, 2023) As the year draws to a close, Russia’s motley landscape of civil rights defenders, election monitors, environmental campaigners, anti-war activists and others is more beleaguered than ever before. Confronted with the increasingly oppressive machinery of the Russian state, scores of activists and the organizations to which they belong have gone into survival mode, with […]
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“… 5. A stalemate in Ukraine. Thanks in part to sluggish support and political impasse from the United States and … Western allies, Ukraine didn’t have enough guns, equipment, or ammo to punch a hole in Russia’s well-fortified defensive lines in eastern Ukraine …. [N]either do Russian forces have the capability, morale, training, or effective fighting prowess to make significant […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 29, 2023) One out of every two Russians wish for the war in Ukraine to end in 2024, according to survey results from the Russian Field polling agency published Friday. When asked what they wish for Russians in the New Year, 50% of Russian Field’s respondents named “peace, a peaceful sky, and the end of” what […]
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“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]
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“At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive would change the dial in the war …. It didn’t … 2024 could be even harder. Ukraine’s alliances with the U.S. and Europe could be destabilized further in 2024, putting the future of military aid packages in doubt. The amount of support and military hardware Ukraine receives […]
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“… Ukraine, … expected to fold in a few weeks [after the wholesale invasion], is not only alive … [I]t’s also managed to push Russia from half the territory … seized [early on]. While these gains may fall short of our hopes and expectations, they are not sufficient to produce the palpable despondence spreading throughout the West. … [T]he Ukrainians’ […]
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“… To understand Ukraine’s likely fate if Russia turns the tide, the best place to start is what the Russians actually say. … [Russian] regime propagandists assert that the Ukrainian state is a disease that must be treated and Ukrainians a society that must be ‘de-wormed.’ … Russia’s highly censored state television has … consistently promoted the rape of Ukrainians, […]
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“The Ukrainian Orthodox Church formally changed the main date for the festivities, departing from the Russian tradition of celebrating on Jan. 7, according to the Julian calendar.” “… After centuries of marking [Christmas] on Jan. 7 under the Julian church calendar, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church this year formally switched to celebrating on Dec. 25 with most of the rest of […]
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“Time for reassessment and a change of course.” “Ukraine’s startling early success … repelling the Russian attempt to take Kiev produced widespread euphoria. Russia’s military was exposed as incompetent and bumbling. The U.S. mobilized … allies to provide arms and support and impose harsh sanctions …. NATO was galvanized and expanded. …. Now as another harsh winter descends, the much-ballyhooed […]
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“… The advent of the war triggered fears of outright nuclear conflict between the West and Russia. That period of somewhat frenzied speculation has passed. The war has since settled into a grinding—but conventional—stalemate. To be sure, U.S. officials are still concerned that Russia may use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. … The unfortunate truth is that Washington cannot […]
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“Russia and the U.S. could be headed for a major escalation, according to [Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister responsible for ties with the U.S., arms control and non-proliferation.] … [Ryakkov] said … confiscation of frozen Russian assets could lead to diplomatic relations … being severed. … [R]eports emerged that the Biden administration could be close to seizing more than […]
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“… [W]hile outright criticism of Kyiv’s military strategy remains taboo, we are beginning to see frank debate on Ukrainian social media about the country’s postwar future and who will be left to build it. … The debate over Ukraine’s freedom of religion, freedom of the press, and minority rights … reveals that even if Ukraine manages to win the war, […]
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“… If [U.S.] aid is cut off and Ukraine is forced to accept a Russian victory, the result won’t be peace but Russian preparation for a new war. The war in Ukraine activated the Soviet totalitarian psychological inheritance in Russia … [that] never disappeared. … Russia is more dangerous than … since the height of the Cold War [with] [m]ilitarization […]
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“Russia’s ruling mechanism — bureaucratic institutions — may outlast the current personalism. This vast network of civil servants, technocrats, and administrators forms a modestly resilient framework that endures beyond individual political decisions, providing continuity and ensuring the steady day-to-day functioning of the government.” “A persistent question … has been whether Russia has transitioned from … authoritarian … to … totalitarian […]
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“…. A strong and free Ukraine, one that is capable of standing up to Russian aggression, is essential to peace and stability in Europe. If … Putin’s strategy of waiting for American resolve to falter is successful, he would then be in position to attack NATO allies and potentially draw American troops into a war ….” Click here for: “An […]
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“… Ukraine is fighting Russia alone. American aid — never timely or sufficient, but enough to help keep Ukraine alive and Russian invaders at bay — is about to run out. … Without American artillery, ammunition, missile systems, tanks, armored vehicles, humanitarian aid, or funds for reconstruction, Ukraine will be left to face the Russian onslaught with diminishing odds of […]
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“… Ukrainian and U.S. commanders are making cold and unsentimental assessments of the lessons of the summer’s failed counteroffensive …. a signal that the war in Ukraine is deadlocked. Drones and other high-tech weapons have made Ukrainian and Russian tanks largely obsolete. … As always after military setbacks, the failed counteroffensive has brought some recriminations. The Post series included a […]
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“The West needs to keep its nerve, recognize the stakes, and support Kyiv’s clearest path to victory.” “… The truth is that there is no easy way out. Moscow has repeatedly made it clear that it will only accept Kyiv’s surrender, and the latter’s underwhelming ground offensive will only have emboldened the Kremlin. The only way to force … Putin […]
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“[From October:] … Russia’s war against Ukraine began in 2014 with its militarized annexation of Crimea, and moved into its current phase … in February, 2022, …[with] Putin[‘s] … full-scale invasion. In the initial months [after], Ukraine, under … Zelensky … with support from NATO, scored some astonishing victories, including the defense of Kyiv. But, although the people of […]
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“Kyiv’s counter-offensive has ended in failure. This could be NATO’s Suez moment.” “… Any deal that rewards Russian aggression will signal to the rest of the world that NATO, with all its collective wealth and weaponry, could not succeed in the minimal goal of rescuing a country that its two most powerful members, the US and the UK, had undertaken […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Anatol Lieven – Nov. 30, 2023) Anatol Lieven is director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. With the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, the Biden administration now seems to realize that Ukrainian victory is highly unlikely, and that at some point there will need to be negotiations. However, it hopes […]
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“A decision by the International Olympic Committee paves the way for individuals from the two countries to take part over the objections of Ukraine and others.” “Individual athletes from Russia and Belarus who successfully qualify for next summer’s Paris Olympics will be allowed to compete in the Games, the International Olympic Committee announced on Friday, ending talk of a blanket […]
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“… Putin on Friday moved to prolong his repressive and unyielding grip on Russia for at least another six years, announcing his candidacy in the presidential election next March that he is all but certain to win … despite starting an immensely costly war in Ukraine that has taken thousands of his countrymen’s lives, provoked repeated attacks inside Russia — […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv – Dec. 7, 2023) Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration In August 2023, the U.S. State Department published an integrated strategy for Ukraine. This highly structured, systematic document defines the key goals and objectives of the U.S. government and its diplomats. Apart from objectives aimed at securing Ukraine’s […]
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“Outnumbered and outgunned, one front-line soldier has given a sobering account of Ukraine’s struggle to cling on to its foothold on the east bank of the vast Dnipro river. Several hundred Ukrainian soldiers have made it there as part of a counter-offensive launched six months ago. Under relentless Russian fire, the soldier spent several weeks on the Russian-occupied side of […]
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“… While the public is tired of the ‘special military operation,’ there are different views on how the fighting should end. … [T]he average Russian believes it is their duty to endorse what the state deems to be moral and right. … Some data … [reveals] doubts …. If they could go back in time, 48 percent of them would […]
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(The White House – whitehouse.gov – Dec. 4, 2023) “… MR. SULLIVAN: On Ukraine, as you’ve all seen, earlier today, OMB Director Shalanda Young sent a letter to congressional leaders — which Karine was just referencing — explaining that without congressional action, the administration will run out of resources by the end of the year to procure more weapons and […]
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“… [Ukrainian] [o]fficials say almost all agreements … Kyiv entered into since the [Soviet] collapse … were scrapped by Moscow … that sitting down with Russia is pointless at best … dangerous at worst. ‘Putin is a habitual liar who promised international leaders that he would not attack Ukraine days before his invasion in February 2022,’ Ukraine’s foreign minister [Dmytro […]
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“President has been stalling on conscript rules since June Ukraine is grappling with dwindling number of volunteers” “A plan to draft more Ukrainian men into the army has been sitting on … Zelenskiy’s desk since June. … [He] so far has defied pressure from the military to sign it. Instead, Zelenskiy … asked his government and top brass for a […]
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(The White House – whitehouse.gov – Dec. 6 2023) THE PRESIDENT: Good afternoon, everyone. I’d like to speak to you today about an urgent responsibility that Congress has to uphold the national security needs of the United States and, quite frankly, of our partners as well. This cannot wait. Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break […]
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“Ukrainian and eastern European officials are … trying to unstick Senate talks stalled over GOP demands to link Ukraine aid with U.S. policy changes on the southern border. … Zelensky dispatched his closest political allies — … president of the Ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, and the head of his office, Andriy Yermak — to lobby lawmakers …. Politicians and officials […]
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“Ukraine signaled Monday that it is shifting its military tactics toward a more defensive footing after an analysis of Russia’s resource capabilities and as winter approaches. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak noted … ‘on the front line and in the cities, we are already moving to a different tactic of warfare — effective defense in certain areas, continuation of offensive […]
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“… [A] number of Ukrainians straddl[e] two increasingly distinct worlds: the grim reality of a trench war; and an ever more waspish political battleground in Kyiv. … [C]ompetitive politics went into hibernation [after Russia’s wholesale invasion, yet] …. returned as the existential threat to Ukraine decreased later [last] year. … Cracks have emerged not only on political lines but, most […]
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“President Volodymyr Zelensky’s briefing, via a video call, will come a day after the White House warned that aid to his country would soon run out.” “… [A]n emergency funding package is stalled in Congress. The … Senate will vote … Wednesday … [on] more than $61 billion in Ukraine-focused assistance as part of a $106 billion national security package. […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]
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“… Crimea … became crucial to Moscow’s strategy to dominate Ukraine and the Black Sea region. Critical to that domination is the bridge spanning the Kerch Strait … [between] Crimea [and] … mainland Russia. Built by Moscow at enormous cost, this bridge opened in 2018 … [and] has been a major conduit for … Russian soldiers and arms …. currently […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 5, 2023) Two in five Russians who fled the country in the months following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine have since returned home, the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia reported Tuesday, citing data from an immigration support company and job recruitment website. According to official statistics, 668,400 Russians left the country last year as war broke out in neighboring […]
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” … Zelensky will have to consider a call for … politicians and civil servants to be drafted to fight in the war … after a petition … reached the required number of signatures. After the start of … Putin’s full-scale invasion, Zelensky announced a general mobilization in which military reservists between … 18 and 60 were eligible for conscription. […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 4, 2023) Moscow broke a daily snowfall record on Sunday when nearly 11 millimeters of precipitation fell over just 12 hours, meteorologists in the Russian capital said. Sunday’s snowfall, powered by a strong cyclone that formed over southern Europe last week, marked the absolute daily record in Moscow since observations began in 1878, according to meteorologist […]
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“The United States seeks to cut Russia’s oil and gas revenue by 50 percent by 2030 as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine …. according to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt[,] [who said that] … Washington hopes [oil and gas] sanctions … will hinder … Putin from … future military aggression …. Kremlin has managed […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]
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“Russian forces are intensifying attacks on … Avdiivka, seeking to encircle Kyiv’s troops …. Kyiv and Western capitals … acknowledge[] that Russia’s full-scale invasion … could drag on into a much longer war. … Avdiivka … had a pre-war population of around 32,000[] [and] has been a frontline city since 2014, when it was briefly occupied by Moscow-backed separatists …. […]
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“New favorites have appeared in … Putin’s inner circle in recent years. Using their access … they come up with new projects to manage, promote themselves in the media, and try to impress everyone with their professionalism … distinguish[ing] them[selves] from veteran members of Putin’s entourage … [and] help[ing] shore up the system. … [T]hey are … starting to overshadow […]
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“Call to bolster fortifications is the Ukrainian leadership’s clearest public acknowledgment of a defensive turn” “… Zelensky ordered the construction of an extensive network of fortifications aimed at holding back Russian forces, signaling a switch to the defensive posture after a monthslong Ukrainian counteroffensive yielded only small gains. … [N]early 20% of [Ukraine’s] land [is] occupied by Russia. … Ukraine […]
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“Russia’s industrial output growth slowed in October as the unemployment rate dropped to a record low 2.9%, [according to] federal statistics … [D]eepening labour shortages show[] signs of cooling Moscow’s military production capacity. Kremlin aide Maxim Oreshkin … sought to portray low unemployment as evidence of … economic prosperity, but … Putin and his economy ministry have acknowledged Russia … […]
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“In an exclusive interview … Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is entering a new stage, with winter expected to complicate … fighting and the Middle East capturing global attention.” “… ‘Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting with the second (best) army in the world, I am satisfied,’ he said, referring to the Russian […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]
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