(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]
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“On its own, a Ukrainian battlefield victory won’t be sufficient if Russia’s wrongs are left intact and its crimes unpunished.” “… [N]either Ukraine nor … international law and justice would be fully served if Russia’s wrongs were left intact and its crimes unpunished. … [L]arge-scale displacement and deportation of Ukrainian children is one of Russia’s most abhorrent offences … a […]
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“The German tabloid ‘Bild’ said …. President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz … plan to force Ukraine into peace talks next year by denying it the weapons needed to win. … Team Biden is more interested in avoiding confrontation with Russia than in defeating it. To oppose aid to Ukraine is to ensure a Russian victory, but funding [] […]
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“Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality … and prepare for a multiyear war and … the long-term containment of Russia…. Russia is not becoming … more amenable to compromise. … [T]he Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the … international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now …. Western and Ukrainian leaders need to […]
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“… Every once in a while, a leader comes along and single-handedly changes the course of history … through the power of their words. … Zelenskyy is such a leader. From his defiant ‘We are here’ video … in the first days of the war outside his presidential office … and his iconic ‘I need ammunition, not a ride’ quip […]
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“… The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy …. center[ing] on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling … a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads. Some believe … only two routes [lie] ahead: … the perpetuation of war — with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor — or negotiations that lead […]
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“Congress holds up military aid as unsupportive populists make gains in Europe.” “For more than 600 days of full-scale war, America has been Ukraine’s greatest saviour as it marshalled arms, money and more to help repel Russia’s invasion. Now … [i]ts aid for Ukraine is fast running out, and dysfunction in Congress is blocking new assistance. Nobody is sure when […]
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“EU proposals include ban on re-export to Russia of key goods Proposals include penalties for breaches and fund for Ukraine” “… [EU’s] executive arm has proposed banning importers from reselling so-called high-priority items — like semiconductors used in weapons or needed to make them — to Russia or for use in Russia, and requiring a sum to be deposited in […]
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“Kremlin leader seeks to turn advantage in manpower and munitions into battlefield progress, while Western will and assistance for Kyiv waver “… [P]olitical paralysis in the U.S. and Europe … threaten[] … [Ukrainian] … [access to[] arms and money … [T]he Russian army’s limitations … suggest it is more likely to grind out [just] small gains …. The Ukrainian army […]
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New book: Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace: How The West Failed to Prevent a Second Cold War (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 2023). Professor Emeritus of Politics School of Politics and International Relations Keynes College, Division of Human and Social Sciences University of Kent Introduction PART I: FROM COLD WAR TO COLD WAR The promise of peace The […]
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“As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on.” “… [O]nly around 400 square km (154 square miles) of territory had been liberated [in the Ukrainian counteroffensive] …. Russia still occupies about 18% of Ukraine[.] [A]round half … it took in 2014 … annex[ing] Crimea and grabb[ing] the eastern Donbas[.] [T]he rest is … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]
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“Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.” “… Washington and its allies have been remarkably effective at tackling the most urgent aspects of this problem: staving off Ukraine’s collapse, keeping it well-supplied with advanced weapons and real-time […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]
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(Moscow Times – Nov. 14, 2023) Russia has managed to almost entirely circumvent a G7 price cap on its oil exports, with Moscow claiming average sales at more than $20 per barrel above the imposed limit, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Western officials and Russian export data. [ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad] According to an unnamed senior European official who spoke to FT, […]
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“… Ukraine, the United States, and the [EU] … [w]orking together … have not only preserved the Ukrainian state, but stood up to a bully whose nihilism harms the entire world. Putin backs far-right and extremist movements in Europe, provides thugs to support African dictatorships, and colludes with China, Iran, Venezuela, and other autocracies. … Putin hoped the war would […]
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“Roman Chervinsky, a colonel in Ukraine’s special operations forces, was integral to the brazen sabotage operation, say people familiar with planning.” “… Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s special operations forces, [reportedly] was the ‘coordinator’ of … Nord Stream [sabotage] operation … logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities […]
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“Brussels recommends membership talks start soon, but many European leaders share U.S. concerns over rule of law.” “… At the heart of European concerns … — echoed by Washington — is whether [Ukraine] can overhaul its governance and political culture to rein in … big tycoons and eradicate endemic corruption that has impeded economic growth and social cohesion. … [T]he […]
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“Foreign firms have sold assets worth over $21 billion Third wave of business elite swoops in to grab bargains” “A new cohort of Russian business elite has emerged to benefit from the void left when international firms suddenly exited following … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. … snapp[ing] up assets at discounted prices after … multinationals … [left due to] pressure […]
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“… On November 8th the European Commission in Brussels unveiled its annual assessment of how countries who aspire to become EU members are getting on with the reforms needed to do so. Eight are actively vying to join as well as Ukraine, including Georgia, Moldova and six countries in the western Balkans …. (Turkey is nominally still a candidate … […]
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“Even Republicans who support arming Ukraine are skeptical of providing more cash to the country’s government.” “… [Some] top Biden administration officials [have] urged [Congress] to provide $11.8 billion in direct budget support to Kyiv to help pay … day-to-day bills. … part of a roughly $106 billion emergency funding request covering Ukraine, Israel and other issues. … Ukraine’s economy […]
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“NATO member[s] … that signed a key Cold War-era security treaty froze their participation in the pact on Tuesday just hours after Russia pulled out, raising fresh questions about the future of [European] arms control agreements …. Many of NATO’s 31 allies are parties to the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe … aimed at preventing Cold War rivals […]
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“Kyiv wants Marine Corps training, more air defense and longer-range missiles.” “Ukrainian officials and allies in Europe are ramping up their lobbying campaign in the U.S. for new weapons and training …. [A] delegation of Ukrainian officials, troops and advisers visited America’s capital … to share Kyiv’s latest wish list: U.S. Marine Corps training on conducting ship-to-shore operations; new air […]
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“Putin’s war in Ukraine is leaving billionaires who sought to integrate with the West to face the reality of international isolation.” “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed everything for [certain Russian oligarchs] … who prospered under Putin until the U.S. and Europe imposed sweeping sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin leader and bringing his economy to its knees. The penalties […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]
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(Moscow Times – Vitaly Egorov – Oct. 25, 2023) Russia’s attack on Ukraine is fueled by a decidedly anti-Western ideology. But in contrast, Russia’s space scientists had been building international ties, entering into partnership projects, and seeking to expand collaboration with Western countries over the previous three decades. For many scientists, Feb. 24, 2022, came as a shock and caused […]
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“Andrii Kostyn told POLITICO Kyiv will soon deliver on Brussels’ demands for fighting corruption, despite Russian attempts to sabotage the work.” “Ukraine is accelerating its drive to clean up its politics and will meet all … EU[] anti-corruption requirements within months … a major boost to its bid to join the 27-member bloc, the country’s top prosecutor [said] …. ‘I […]
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“Slow military progress and cracks in the backing of key allies could also drain vital attention from Ukraine’s battle with Russia, some fear.” “Ukraine, still locked in fierce combat with Russia along hundreds of miles of front line, also finds itself grappling with … [geopolitical] shifts …. The attention of key allies is pivoting to … Gaza, military aid from […]
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“European officials and experts are concerned that Russia could exploit the chaos surrounding the Hamas attack on Israel, pushing the Kremlin even closer to Iran, …. allied with [Hamas]. There is no sign that Russia provided material support — or even had advance notice — prior to the surprise attack … [that] left at least 900 Israelis dead and scores […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Putin has shot down proposals to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in Russia’s doctrinal documents, but called for Russia to de-ratify the CTBT. When asked by Sergei Karaganov at the Valdai Club meeting on Oct. 5 whether Russia should “modify the doctrine on using nuclear weapons, lowering the nuclear threshold,” Putin said: “[T]here […]
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“… To track the war’s course, the Brookings Institution is compiling security, economic, and political data presented in graphic form …. [with] updated information on key metrics including civilian casualties, Western aid, and Ukraine’s economic challenges … track[ing] the trajectory of the conflict and its broader consequences …. The data … is … from a variety of sources (government, international […]
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(Moscow Times – Oct. 2, 2023) U.S., French and German corporations continued to dominate the Russian market in 2023 despite the Western business exodus sparked by the war in Ukraine, according to Forbes Russia’s list of the 50 largest foreign companies in the country. [forbes.ru/biznes/497010-50-krupnejsih-inostrannyh-kompanij-v-rossii-2023-rejting-forbes] The latest ranking, which also saw Chinese companies gain ground, reflects the major geopolitical shifts […]
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“It could join the EU’s awkward squad if Robert Fico forms a government.” “Robert Fico … fell from power in 2018 after the murder of a journalist investigating high-level corruption, which led to mass protests. Now he looks set to lead [Slovakia] … again. … A [] Fico-led government can be expected to ally itself in the [EU]and NATO with […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Ekaterina Kotrikadze, News Director and Anchor, TV Rain (Dozhd TV) – Sept. 27, 2023) Russian citizens are facing new restrictions. European Union authorities have just prohibited them from crossing the union’s border in cars bearing Russian license plates and from carrying certain items with them. As these restrictions were being introduced, European sanctions were being […]
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“… Westerners’ inability to travel to Russia and conduct new research means that they are unlikely to arrive at a better understanding of the cost-benefit analysis guiding Kremlin decision-making. … Western countries’ attempts to achieve their policy aims by modulating — or even responding to — events in Russia and the decisions of the Russian leadership are doomed to be […]
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“… Ukraine consistently ranks in the bottom half of Transparency International’s annual global Corruption Perceptions Index … [I]n the latest survey, for 2022, only Russia was rated more corrupt in Europe. … In a [June] report … the [IMF] said donors and foreign investors need to see reforms to improve governance, transparency and tackle corruption ‘without delay.’ In a[] [June […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 22, 2023) 7 Things to Know Ukraine intends to continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, according to remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley this week. “The fight right now still has plenty of fighting weather left,” according to Gen. Milley. At the […]
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“… [W]hen climate change, famine, health crises and so much more are stressing Planet Earth, the last thing humanity needed was to divert so much attention, collaborative energy, money and lives to respond to Putin’s war to make Ukraine a Russian colony again. Putin lately has stopped even bothering to justify the war …. [I]f Ukraine can escape this war […]
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“There is no alternative to slowly and methodically reducing Russian forces in Ukraine.” “… The idea that there is a shortcut to victory raises expectations for a quick end to the carnage that Ukraine is unlikely to fulfill. After more than 18 months of grinding, attritional war, it should be obvious that there are no miracle weapons and that there […]
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“… Last year, the 27-nation [EU] … declared Ukraine an official candidate for admission. [European] [p]olicymakers … are now butting heads over whether to set a [membership] timetable …. Some are pushing for 2030 … others suggest an association short of full membership. An array of complex problems would need to be ironed out …. [Ukraine] would be by far […]
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“The war in Ukraine is being waged on the battlefield but also globally … [T]he latter theater might be the more decisive … the financial and commercial terrain where the West’s sanctions have been deployed … [T]he effort to subvert Russia’s economy might eventually do more to end the war than any new weapons system or fresh breakthrough along the […]
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“A coalition of the world’s wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries gives Ukraine a major structural advantage. Russia, by contrast, has only two countries—Iran and North Korea — openly assisting it … although China has been … an important economic backstop … and a provider of nonlethal military aid. … Western military support comes with its own risks and challenges[] […]
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“But Ukraine’s president fears that some of his country’s Western backers are losing faith.” “… Having failed to overwhelm Ukraine quickly, [] Putin seems determined to exhaust the country and to wear out its partners’ resolve to keep funding and supplying it with arms. … But [] Zelensky says Russia itself is fragile. … [suggesting that Russia itself will suffer […]
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“Ukraine’s new defense minister, Rustem Umerov, has called on foreign allies to provide ‘heavy weaponry, heavy weaponry and, again, heavy weaponry’ …. On Friday, Umerov told the Yalta European Strategy summit in Kyiv that Ukraine is ‘grateful’ for … Western support … but warned that Kyiv’s forces will need more to overcome … ‘big challenges’ … driving Russian troops out […]
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“A Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary in Luxembourg could immediately apply to SWIFT to ‘effectively enable access’ for the bank to the international payments system within 30 days, the United Nations told Russia in a letter …. ‘SWIFT has confirmed that RSHB Capital S.A. would be eligible to apply for membership and access to SWIFT for food and fertilizer transactions, based […]
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7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]
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“Weapons shortages, domestic political pressures hamper Western efforts.” “The [U.S.] and … European allies are laying plans for long-term military assistance to Ukraine to ensure Russia won’t be able to win on the battlefield and persuade the Kremlin that Western support … won’t waver. The effort, building on [G7] commitments … on the sidelines of … [July’s NATO] summit … […]
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“Norway is rebuilding a dilapidated reindeer fence along its border with Russia in the Arctic to stop the animals from wandering into the neighboring country.” “[The wandering reindeer go on] costly strolls for which Oslo has to compensate Moscow over loss of grassland. Norwegian officials said … so far this year, 42 reindeer have crossed into Russia seeking better pastures […]
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