Expert Survey: Does Russia’s Presidential Election Matter to U.S. and Its Allies?

Kremlin and River

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – March 15, 2024) Russia’s presidential election, whose outcome is near certain to grant Vladimir Putin a fifth term, got underway on March 15. Given the inevitability of Putin’s victory in what one Kremlin-connected insider has described as a “well-designed simulation,” one might wonder what impact the Russian election has on the U.S. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Rattled Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections” – WSJ

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“Raising specter of nuclear confrontation allows Russian leader to keep his population on edge and convinced of need for militarism, analysts say.” “… Putin warned publicly … of the possibility of nuclear confrontation with the West, a saber … [Putin was] rattling with increasing frequency ahead of presidential elections this weekend. The comments — part of an interview with a […]

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West Mistakenly Thinks Russia in Terminal Decline While Moscow Elites Even More Wrongly Believe They can Restore Russia’s Superpower Status, Pastukhov Says

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Mar. 11, 2024) Many of the mistakes Western elites have made about Russia and that Moscow elites have made about their own county arise from misconceptions each has about Russia’s future, Vladimir Pastukhov says. The West has mistakenly assumed Russia is in terminal decline while Moscow elites think they can restore the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Claims That Sanctions Hurt Europe More Than Russia Are Wrong” – Foreign Policy

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“A false narrative is being peddled by the Kremlin and its Western friends.” “… Russia has never been a major market for EU firms, with Russian businesses buying just 4 percent of EU exports in 2021. [A]bout half of EU exports to Russia fall under sanctions … [so] only 2 percent of EU exports are affected …. [S]anctions do not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe is at last adjusting to the new reality in Ukraine” – Financial Times

Europe Map

“… This was going to be a long war that Russia would do everything to win, and the west was not ready. This reality has now been sinking in, exposing new tensions among western leaders about how to confront it. … Hampered by an excruciating shortage of ammunition and artillery that its allies were too slow to provide, Ukraine’s troops […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Don’t seize: capitalise; How to put Russia’s frozen assets to work for Ukraine; Exploit them to the full, but legally” – The Economist

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“… About €190bn of [Russian] assets are controlled in Belgium by Euroclear, a custodian. … [I]nvestment returns and principal repayments it would pass on to Russia are instead piling up as a cash balance … currently … around €132bn … which Euroclear’s bank can profitably invest. The argument that Russia has no right to these returns is relatively uncontroversial, not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s losses on the battlefield could make the war more dangerous for Russia” – CNBC

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Russia’s advantage on the battlefield could prompt Ukraine’s backers to give it more of what it wants, and needs, to win the war. Defense analysts call this irony of conflict the ‘escalation paradox.’ French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial comments on the possibility of NATO ground troops in Ukraine demonstrated this paradox.” “… With Ukraine now on the back foot, analysts […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The West Can No Longer Hesitate on Ukraine” – Foreign Policy: Alexander Vershbow

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Allies must provide Kyiv with what it needs to win the war and secure the peace: arms supplies and a path to NATO membership.” “… [T]he West … need[s] … a clearer strategy for achieving victory and stopping … Putin from overturning the rules-based international order. … [H]esitation and incrementalism in providing Ukraine with the military capabilities … it needs […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Six-Year Manifesto Sets Sights Beyond Ukraine” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Putin’s state of the nation address should have been a mere pre-election formality, but it left an extremely chilling impression of an unraveling spiral of escalation.” “… The horizons of this ‘holy war’ have now expanded. If a year ago, Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and relied on defensive and even sacrificial rhetoric, this year he sounded victorious, speaking […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s resilience to sanctions shows it is ‘costly and unattainable’ to isolate a large and globally integrated economy, economist says” – Business Insider

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russia’s economy remains resilient against Western sanctions. Economist Elina Ribakova wrote about the limitations of trying to isolate a globally integrated economy like Russia. The West’s experience sanctioning Russia could help in crafting potential future trade restrictions against China.” “Despite sweeping … sanctions over … Ukraine, Russia posted … GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. […]

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The War in Ukraine in a Transitional World Order

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Robert Legvold – Feb. 23, 2024) Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus in the department of political science at Columbia University. The fundamental questions raised by the war in Ukraine are like the two sides of a coin: on one side, there is the overarching but largely ignored question of how the war […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Two years on, is Ukraine’s military faltering?” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… My sense, based on recent conversations with Western military, defence and intelligence officials, is that a collapse of Ukrainian lines is unlikely. … Many of the sharpest observers of the war are concerned. … It would be unfair, however, to focus on Russian advances without mentioning a spectacular Ukrainian success. On February 23rd Ukraine said it had downed a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Will the U.S. Abandon Ukraine?” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Two years after Russia’s invasion, America’s waning commitment is raising fears that Putin could win the war — and that Europe may be on its own in future conflicts.” “… Ukraine has proved a formidable foe, regaining half of the land initially occupied by Russia and inflicting staggering casualties on Russia’s much more powerful military. Europe, too, has absorbed the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A War Putin Still Can’t Win” – Foreign Affairs

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“To Thwart Russia, America Needs a Long-Term Strategy — and Ukraine Needs Long-Range Weapons” “… [T]he brutal war has often defied expectations. … [W]hen Russian forces poured over the … border, Ukraine … mounted an effective resistance and quickly ended the siege on Kyiv. … [A]fter the war moved south and east, Ukraine again caught observers off guard with its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Has Already Lost” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… If the fundamental purpose of [] Putin’s war was to keep Ukraine within Russia’s orbit — politically, culturally and economically — it has had the opposite effect. Ukraine’s leaders and citizens, particularly those from younger generations, have decided that their future lies with the West, not Russia [including in eastern Ukraine]. … [A]ny visitor to Ukraine’s eastern and southern […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Unveils Biggest Sanctions Package on Russia Since War Began” – Bloomberg

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“Drone maker, payment system are among targets of penalties Yellen says Russia’s economy showing ‘signs of weakness’” “U.S. holds off metals sanctions amid fears of economic chaos Russia’s economy still forecast to grow up to 1.5% in 2024″ “The U.S. unveiled its biggest one-day sanctions package against Russia since the [full-scale] invasion of Ukraine … targeting more than 500 people […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Leadership Change in Russia: Contingency Planning Memorandum” – Council on Foreign Relations: Liana Fix, Maria Snegovaya

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.” “… Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 … Putin looked set to stay in power […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Frozen Russian Assets Over Ukraine War Wins Endorsement of Legal Experts” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

Letter from scholars backing seizure is circulating in G-7 ‘It would be lawful, under international law,’ 10 experts say “A group of legal experts sought to bolster the case for seizing frozen Russian central bank assets, arguing that such actions are allowed under international law given the scale of Russia’s continuing attacks in Ukraine. … The letter … is co-signed […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine” – Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world. No settlement will endure unless Ukraine, Russia, and the West all see it as sufficiently serving their interests and … preferable to continued war. … [W]e need not and should […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check?” – Brookings

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he outlook appears bleak: both sides have sustained horrific losses, millions of Ukrainians remain displaced or in exile, and there is no plausible sign of an end to the violence. Western capitals are struggling to supply funds and ammunition to Kyiv … [T]he Kremlin seemingly draws on limitless supplies and political support from authoritarian allies and continues to pound […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despair in Russia as Putin Spirals Out of Control” – Daily Beast

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Just this [past] week the Kremlin claimed it was at war with the United States and Putin’s No.1 enemy was found dead in prison. Russians are terrified about what’s next.” “…. Putin’s spokesman informed Russians this [past] week that … [Russia’s] ‘special military operation’ … was set to go on much longer because it is now ‘a war against the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden, lawmakers hammer Ukraine aid holdouts after Navalny death” – Politico

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“At the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill, Ukraine backers amp up the pressure on Republican holdouts.” “… [T]he Pentagon … touted the impacts of U.S. and European aid to Kyiv on the battlefield and in the economic costs to Moscow, but also underscored worries that Ukrainian forces won’t have the weapons needed to fend off Russian forces […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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UKRAINELINK: “A Long War Made Longer by the West’s Unaddressed Mistakes” – Kennan Institute: Victor Andrusiv

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv, Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration – Feb. 14, 2024) Two years of war in Ukraine is already a long time, but recent events suggest that all forecasts regarding the end of hostilities no longer apply. For the first time, in speaking of a “long war” we’re referring […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why NATO Needs Ukraine: Kyiv’s Survival and Europe’s Security Depend on a More Unified Front” – Foreign Affairs: Alina Polyakova, James Goldgeier

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… The July 2023 NATO summit … settl[ed] on an ambiguously worded communiqué declaring … NATO could invite Ukraine to join ‘when Allies agree and conditions are met.’ … The absence of a clear plan … has given Putin more confidence that he can wait out the West … in a war of attrition. … [T]he lack of resolve … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Seeks Revenge on a World Order He Once Wanted to Join” – Bloomberg

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“The KGB agent turned warlord president has shaped Russia with resentment and force. As Donald Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies if he returns to the White House, Putin’s poised to take advantage.” “… Putin is attempting to strike his own decisive blow against the U.S. and Europe to reshape [the] global order to Russia’s advantage … backed by military […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “IMF warns that any action on Russian assets needs ‘sufficient legal support'” – Reuters

International Monetary Fund Logo Over Ukraine Flag

“… IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath … said decisions about what to do with [Russian] assets rested solely with countries holding them. She declined to offer an opinion on how they should be used. Gopinath said the IMF would evaluate the impact of any decisions … but the IMF would not be involved in the decisions. … [S]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End” – Bloomberg

Map of Germany adapted from cia.gov image

“As political paralysis grips Berlin, the energy crisis was the final blow for a growing number of manufacturers” “… Manufacturing output in Europe’s biggest economy has been trending downward since 2017 … accelerating as competitiveness erodes. … The U.S. is drifting away from Europe and is seeking to compete … for climate investment. China is becoming a bigger rival and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Germany Braces for Decades of Confrontation With Russia” – New York Times

Brandeburg Gate in Berlin, Germany, file photo adapted from image at state.gov

“Leaders are sounding alarms about growing threats, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is wary of pushing the Kremlin, and his own ambivalent public, too far.” “Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia … that they must speedily rebuild the country’s military in case … Putin does not plan to stop […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Washington Must Do for Kyiv Between Now and November” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [A]fter weeks of negotiation, the EU approved a 50 billion euro funding package for Ukraine … a much needed economic boost[] while the U.S. bill remains held up in Congress. On a recent episode of Carnegie Connects, host Aaron David Miller discussed … Russia’s war against Ukraine with Carnegie senior fellows Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella. … * * […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. and Germany Push to Delay Ukraine NATO Membership Invite; Ukraine and its Eastern European allies want the invite to come soon, but Washington and Berlin are wary.” – Foreign Policy

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Ukraine and some of its strongest supporters are pushing NATO to formally invite Kyiv to become a member … during a major upcoming summit, but … [reportedly] are facing significant behind-the-scenes pushback from the United States and Germany …. Kyiv has backing from Eastern European [NATO members] … including Poland and the Baltic states … [think Ukrainian] NATO membership [would […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Leaders Agree to $54 Billion Ukraine Aid Package as Hungary’s Orban Backs Down” – WSJ

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Ukraine aid decision comes against the backdrop of growing fears about Russia’s threat to Europe’s security” “[EU] leaders agreed to a $54 billion budget aid package for Ukraine … Thursday, locking in financing … for the next four years … [a mix of long-term loans and grants,] a major boost for Ukraine, which could have started to run short of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine says it uncovers mass fraud in weapons procurement” – Reuters

File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Ukraine’s SBU security service said on Saturday it had uncovered a corruption scheme in the purchase of arms … totalling the equivalent of about $40 million. … The fight to root out endemic corruption remains a major issue as Ukraine presses its bid to secure [EU] membership …. The SBU said an investigation … ‘exposed officials of the Ministry of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets – officials” – Reuters

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“The [EU] [reportedly] is unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe, despite G7 plans to discuss the legality of such a move at a meeting in February …. The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine … [including roughly] $200 billion … held […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s $30 Billion Problem: How to Keep Fighting Without Foreign Aid” – WSJ

File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Kyiv could delay salaries, return to printing money if funding from U.S. and EU falls through” “Ukraine [reportedly] will run out of money within months and be forced to take painful economic measures to keep the government running if aid from the U.S. or Europe doesn’t come through …. The U.S. and [EU] … have promised Kyiv billions of dollars […]

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Ukraine and West Can’t Count on Collapse of Russia’s Military-Industrial Sector as a Result of Sanctions, Inozemtsev Says

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel” – Financial Times

“Demand for atomic energy is surging but Moscow dominates the world’s supplies of enriched uranium.” “… Utilities companies have spent two years stockpiling nuclear fuel in case Russian supplies are disrupted. … Washington is undertaking a multibillion-dollar push to rebuild its nuclear supply chain …. More than a fifth of the fuel used by the 93 nuclear reactors in the […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Desperate Hour: The World Needs a Russian Defeat” – Bloomberg

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Grabbing $300 billion of Russian assets is no panacea, West cautions in Davos” – Reuters

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Rules Out Nuclear Arms Talks With US Over Ukraine Support” – Bloomberg

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“No grounds for arms-control talks with U.S., Lavrov says Russia accuses U.S. of escalating confrontation over Ukraine” “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed the U.S. over … Ukraine and warned on the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers … [while] rul[ing] out … discussions on strategic security …. He accused the U.S. and … European allies of escalating … confrontation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The War in Ukraine Has Become a Peripheral Concern for the West” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“What seemed at first to be the start of a Third World War has turned out to be more akin to a Second Yugoslav War: a local conflict on the edge of Europe triggered by a slow-motion imperial collapse.” “Throughout 2022, Europe was in shock. … Russia, owner of the continent’s most powerful armed forces, really was capable of sending […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Can Europe arm Ukraine — or even itself?” – The Economist

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Wars of attrition, … what large-scale conflicts between militarily sophisticated adversaries such as Russia and Ukraine tend to become, are usually decided by … the better arms industry. Russia’s economy is nearly 14 times the size of Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are so much greater that it should be able to win. … Both America and […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 5-12, 2024

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT  reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s War Effort Is Stuck. This Heroic Battlefield Failure Shows Why.” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 2-8, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nord Stream Probe Hampered by Resistance From Poland” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Investigators hope Warsaw’s new government will shed light on gas-pipeline attack after previous administration’s reluctance to disclose potentially crucial evidence.” “Polish officials have resisted cooperating with an international probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines and failed to disclose potentially crucial evidence, according to European investigators …. [They reportedly] have been slow to provide information and withheld […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]

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