JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Six-Year Manifesto Sets Sights Beyond Ukraine” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Putin’s state of the nation address should have been a mere pre-election formality, but it left an extremely chilling impression of an unraveling spiral of escalation.” “… The horizons of this ‘holy war’ have now expanded. If a year ago, Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and relied on defensive and even sacrificial rhetoric, this year he sounded victorious, speaking […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A new nuclear arms race is here: How to slow it down” – Washington Post

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“The world is entering a dangerous nuclear arms race … but it does not have to end in catastrophe. Treaties controlling nuclear arms — verifiable and binding, to limit or reduce stockpiles and prevent miscalculation or error — can lead to more stability. They require political will … that does not exist today. The new factor is China … aspir[ing] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Collapse of Global Arms Control” – Time

U.S. Tanks in Field Amidst Military Exercises in Europe, adapted from eucom.mil image

“… Nov. 7 in Moscow, the Kremlin defiantly renounced its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), once thought of as a pillar of European stability. … NATO countries quickly followed suit, suspending … treaty obligations. The CFE is not the only arms control agreement … thrown onto the garbage heap of history in recent years. […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s nuclear saber rattling: A threat or wake-up call for the West?” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“… [F]ew have paid attention in recent years as the entire framework of strategic arms control, assembled over decades by Moscow and Washington, has been dismantled piece by piece by American and Russian politicians, leaving a dangerous vacuum where mutual responsibility, verification, and dialogue used to be. The last important agreement, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, effectively lapsed when … Putin […]

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All Blushes of Autumn: Russia’s Evolving “Red Lines” in the War on Ukraine

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 860 – Polina Sinovets – Oct. 23, 2023 – PDF: click here) Dr. Polina Sinovets is a Founder and a Head of the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP) at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University (Ukraine). This memo is based on a forthcoming NATO Defense College policy brief, “Fifty Shades of Red: Where Does Russia Draw […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia will only resume nuclear tests if the U.S. does it first, a top Russian diplomat says” – AP

File Photo of Tsar Bomba Nuclear Detonation, adapted from image at osd.mil

“Russia will move to revoke the ratification of a global nuclear test ban to put itself on par with the United States but will only resume nuclear tests if Washington does it first …. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov [said Tuesday] …. He added that if the U.S. conducts a nuclear test, ‘we will be forced to mirror that as […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future” – RAND

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(RAND – rand.org – Bryan Frederick, Mark Cozad, Alexandra Stark – Sept. 21, 2023) [Report home page (HTML) – PDF of full report (108 pages)] “… Further Russian escalation has likely been restrained by three main factors … (1) … NATO military capabilities and reactions, (2) concern for broader international reactions, particularly … China’s … (3) … Russian perception that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine says Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby” – Washington Post

Radioactivity Symbol Against Mottled Metallic Background, adapted from image at ready.gov

“.. .[R]isk of … major disaster at the … Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of … radioactive fallout. The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire … but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the [June 6] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “West explores nuclear risks from unstable Putin regime” – Financial Times

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“Officials have discussed possible negative outcomes from Wagner insurrection destabilising Kremlin” “Western nations have explored contingencies in the aftermath of … Prigozhin’s attempted insurrection … including the threat to nuclear stockpiles from an unstable [Russian] regime …. Talks led by G7 members [reportedly] have included [discussions of] how a weakening of … Putin’s control over security and military forces could […]

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Russia in Review, June 9-16, 2023 – 7 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s administration staff ‘are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council’s Dmitry Medvedev is often drunk when he writes his apocalyptic threats of nuclear war'” – Daily Mail (UK)

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

“Sources close to the Kremlin say stress of Ukraine war is turning some to drink State banquets serve luxury cognac costing more than £6,000 a bottle Some Russian admin staff are said to be starting the day with a bottle of vodka” Click here for: “Putin’s administration staff ‘are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council’s […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin and the Psychology of Nuclear Brinksmanship” – Foreign Affairs

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“The War in Ukraine Hinges on One Man’s Thoughts and Feelings.” “Shortly after the West rebuked Russia for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and imposed financial sanctions … Putin … put[] … nuclear forces on high alert. The Kremlin has issued many more nuclear threats, some oblique … some explicit …. Even before the war … Russia … reversed its […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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Russia in Review, May 19-26, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin says nuclear arms control talks hinge on U.S. goodwill” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“The Kremlin said Tuesday … it’s ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense standoff over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Commenting on … Biden’s statement that Washington is open for talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Hope for Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests on China, Russia” – WSJ

Iran Map and Flag

“Beijing has greater economic clout and more aggressive foreign policy than during original talks for 2015 deal.” “… Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia … and … China … Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, U.S. Release Latest Nuclear Weapons Counts as Moscow-NATO Ties Collapse” – Newsweek

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… Russia counted 527 deployed … ICBMs[] … SLBMs[] and heavy bombers, 1,458 warheads on deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and … heavy bombers as well as 742 deployed and non-deployed launchers of ICBMs, deployed and non-deployed launchers of SLBMs and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers. … with U.S. figures at 665 deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and heavy bombers; 1,389 warheads […]

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Image of Sakharov, Once the Conscience of the Nation, an Increasingly Blurred Figure for Russians, Lev Gudkov Says

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

The month marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of Academician Andrey Sakharov who developed the hydrogen bomb … then became the leading spokesman for humanism and democracy against the Soviet regime […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden faces first foreign policy test with Russian balancing act; White House seeks arms control pact even as it warns of consequences for Navalny arrest” – Financial Times/ Katrina Manson, Henry Foy, Lauren Fedor

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… the White House said … it wanted a straight extension of [New START for five years,] a nuclear arms control agreement … fac[ing] imminent expiry …. even as incoming officials have condemned … the Kremlin’s [reputedly] most aggressive anti-western actions in years. … U.S. security services [recently] uncovered a massive cyber-espionage attack on U.S. government computers … blamed on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia ready for quick extension of last arms pact with U.S.” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“… Lavrov said … Moscow is ready to move quickly to keep the pact alive. … New START envisages the possibility of its extension for another five years … [The Russian government] has said … Moscow is ready to do so without … conditions. … [or] to prolong the pact for a shorter term …. [T]alks … have been clouded […]

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RUSSIALINK: “There are still chances of reaching agreement before New START expires – Russian ambassador to U.S.” – Interfax

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

Chances still remain for Russia and the United States to reach an understanding before the New START expires in early February, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “UN urges Russia to immediately withdraw forces from Crimea” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution … urging Russia to immediately withdraw all its military forces from Crimea ‘and end its temporary occupation of the territory of Ukraine without delay.’ The vote in the 193-member world body was 63-17 with 62 abstentions …. Russia sent troops into Crimea and annexed the peninsula in 2014. It has supported separatist rebels […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “START II is a chance to renew relations between Russia and the West” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… [With the agreement] due to expire in February … START treaty [renewal] is a golden opportunity for the West to squeeze … real concessions out of Russia… [T]he Kremlin badly wants to renew the deal. … [I]ts economy suffering from the double whammy of an oil price collapse and … the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the last thing [Russia] wants […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Moscow, Washington not close to any agreement on New START – Russian deputy FM” – Interfax

Sergei Ryabkov file photo

MOSCOW. Oct 27 (Interfax) – Russia has not yet received any response from the United States to its proposals on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Washington is setting additional conditions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Tuesday. “We’ve met the U.S. halfway twice over the past few weeks. We haven’t received a proper response. Strictly […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin: Russia-China military alliance can’t be ruled out” – AP

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… Putin said … there is no need for a Russia-China military alliance now, but noted it could be forged in the future. … signal[ing] deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing amid growing tensions … with the United States. … [Putin] also made a strong call for extending … [the New START Treaty]. … The U.S. recently … proposed a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russia – and Putin – might be worried about a Biden presidency” – CNBC/ Holly Ellyatt

File Photo of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in front of U.S. Flag and Russian Flag, adapted from image from RIA Novosti

“At the very least, analysts expect that a victory for Biden would increase tensions between Washington and Moscow, and would raise the probability of new sanctions on Russia. The country is already operating under international sanctions on some key sectors and Russian officials close to Putin, for actions including its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, interference in the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Dismisses Trump Hope of Nuclear Deal Before U.S. Vote” – Bloomberg/ Ilya Arkhipov, Henry Meyer, Vladimir Kuznetsov

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Russia dashed hopes of a [nuclear weapons] deal … before next month’s [U.S.] presidential election …. The U.S. proposal for a nuclear freeze … also cover[ing] tactical weapons ‘has long been known to us’ and is rejected by Russia because ‘we need to deal with their new strategic-range’ conventional arms too, including in space and missile defense, said [Russian Deputy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Spinning good news on arms control” – The Hill/ Steven Pifer

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… A speedy conclusion could be possible on extending New START, which would be in the U.S. interest. Putin has said Moscow would extend without conditions. … [C]hief [U.S.] arms control envoy[] Marshall Billingslea[] has called New START ‘deeply flawed.’ … Billingslea backed away from the demand that China [get involved] … [yet] continued to insist … Russia agree to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH VIDEO: “Russia Declassifies Video From 1961 of Largest Hydrogen Bomb Ever Detonated” – Smithsonian Magazine/ Theresa Machemer

File Photo of Tsar Bomba Nuclear Detonation, adapted from image at osd.mil

“The blast was over 3,000 times bigger than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.” “… [D]eclassified Russian footage [features] the 1961 Tsar Bomba hydrogen bomb test …  [of] the largest bomb … detonated on Earth …. a 50-million-ton hydrogen bomb, officially named RDS-220[,] … [set off] late October 1961 … during the height of the Cold War[,] …. 26 feet long […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Administration Seeks Pre-Election Win on Nuclear Arms Deal with Russia” – Time/ John Walcott

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea met with [Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov] … in Vienna to discuss extending the … New START agreement … [currently limiting] long-range weapons ….  [with the U.S. seeking to make New START extension] a first step toward limiting … entire nuclear arsenals … backed by rare bipartisan consensus on […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: Chances to extend New START Treaty aren’t great, but they haven’t dried up yet” – Interfax

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

(Interfax – Aug. 18, 2020 – interfax.com/newsroom/exclusive-interviews/69585/) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has given an interview to Interfax correspondent Ksenia Baygarova, in which he speaks about the results of the second round of strategic stability consultations in Vienna, chances to extend the New START Treaty and comments on calls by the United States not to interfere in the situation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Administration Shifts Course on Russian Arms Talks, Easing Insistence China Join Now” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“New strategy aims at a framework agreement with Russia, possible pre-election meeting with Putin.” “… the Trump administration signaled … that it will seek to negotiate a separate framework agreement with Moscow and move to bring Beijing on board later. … [which] could open the door for an election-year arms control understanding with Moscow — and possibly a meeting between […]

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Hot of [off?] the Press, Colder in Scope: Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Fundamentals 2020

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(PONARS Eurasia Commentary – Polina Sinovets, Associate Professor, Mechnikov National University, Odessa – Aug. 7, 2020) In a surprise move this past June, Moscow published its first-ever “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence.” The content core of these fundamental principles looks like excerpts from other Russian documents pertaining to the conditions and “red lines” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Warns It Will See Any Incoming Missile as Nuclear” – AP

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation, the military warned …. in … official military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) … [a warning] directed at the United States, which has worked to develop long-range non-nuclear weapons. [I]n June [Russia published its] … nuclear deterrent policy … envisag[ing] … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “NPT dismantlement to increase number of nuclear threshold states – Russian General Staff” – Interfax

File Photo of U.S.-Russian Senior Military Meeting, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to Dominique A. Pineiro

MOSCOW. Aug 7 (Interfax) – The U.S. policy aimed at withdrawing from the agreements limiting nuclear weapons may have negative implications for the entire world, representatives of the Russian General Staff said in an article published by the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper on Friday. “The future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a big […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia able to ensure its security if New START Treaty isn’t extended – Lavrov” – Interfax

Sergei Lavrov file photo

MOSCOW. July 10 (Interfax – Primakov Readings) – Russia will promote the idea of the inadmissibility of a nuclear war at the P5 summit of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. “We’re particularly concerned by the fact that the Americans have been refusing for the past two years to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Administration Weighs Extending New START Nuclear Treaty” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“President’s decision about pact with Russia will be influenced by whether China joins arms-control negotiations and progress toward tougher agreement.” “… A day after a round of Russia-U.S. arms control talks in Vienna, [a U.S.] official said … Trump could agree to extend the [New START Treaty], … due to expire in February, if the parties make progress toward a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine: Don’t Mess With Us – But Let’s Talk” – World Politics Review/ Richard Weitz

Iskander Missile with Launch file photo

  “… Why did Russia decide to publish its deterrence policy now? In part, it could be to dispel alleged Western misperceptions about when Russia might use nuclear weapons, specifically the Pentagon’s assessment that Moscow would threaten to use nuclear weapons – or actually do so – to intimidate an adversary into yielding in a major crisis. Previously referred to […]

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Talks To Salvage Last Major Nuclear Treaty Between U.S., Russia Begin In Vienna

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

The United States and Russia have opened two days of talks on June 22 on their last major nuclear agreement, the New START treaty, which caps the number of deployed long-range nuclear warheads each can have […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Upcoming nuclear arms talks with Russia a chance to save this key treaty” – The Hill/ Bonnie Kristian

Russia ICBM on Mobile Launcher

“… American and Russian diplomats will converge in Vienna … June 22 for arms control negotiations [] possibly … even laying the groundwork to extend the New START deal set to expire in February. … Even if a trilateral deal involving China were possible, experts generally agree it is not achievable before the February deadline. The Trump administration doesn’t ‘have […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Negotiator Doubts China Will Join 3-Way Arms Accord Sought by Trump” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Kremlin won’t press Beijing to join talks despite U.S. plea, says diplomat” “Moscow won’t pressure China to join … coming arms-control talks with U.S. and Russian negotiators, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said …. [T]he New START treaty … cutting] long-range U.S. and Russian nuclear arms[] [is] due to expire in February …. Trump … seek[s] a broader agreement […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s new nuclear policy could be a path to arms control treaties” – Defense News/ Sarah Bidgood

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

… the U.S. and Russia have traditionally been able to work together to mitigate mutual threats even when their bilateral relationship is in crisis […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia to Start Nuclear Arms Control Talks This Month” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“The U.S. and Russia have agreed to start arms control talks this month as the only remaining treaty between the two largest nuclear powers is poised to expire in less than a year … Russia has offered to extend the New [START] Treaty … expir[ing] in February, but Trump wants to see a three-way nuclear arms treaty that includes China. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Puts Defensive Face on Its Nuclear Doctrine Ahead of Arms-Control Negotiations” – Defense One/ Patrick Tucker

Russian Nuclear Submarine

… A country with such a strategy would consider using nuclear weapons – likely tactical ones – at the beginning of a conflict, aiming to press its adversary into quick negotiations. […]

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