(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]
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“The world is entering a dangerous nuclear arms race … but it does not have to end in catastrophe. Treaties controlling nuclear arms — verifiable and binding, to limit or reduce stockpiles and prevent miscalculation or error — can lead to more stability. They require political will … that does not exist today. The new factor is China … aspir[ing] […]
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“… Nov. 7 in Moscow, the Kremlin defiantly renounced its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), once thought of as a pillar of European stability. … NATO countries quickly followed suit, suspending … treaty obligations. The CFE is not the only arms control agreement … thrown onto the garbage heap of history in recent years. […]
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6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]
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“… [F]ew have paid attention in recent years as the entire framework of strategic arms control, assembled over decades by Moscow and Washington, has been dismantled piece by piece by American and Russian politicians, leaving a dangerous vacuum where mutual responsibility, verification, and dialogue used to be. The last important agreement, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, effectively lapsed when … Putin […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 860 – Polina Sinovets – Oct. 23, 2023 – PDF: click here) Dr. Polina Sinovets is a Founder and a Head of the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP) at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University (Ukraine). This memo is based on a forthcoming NATO Defense College policy brief, “Fifty Shades of Red: Where Does Russia Draw […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]
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“Russia will move to revoke the ratification of a global nuclear test ban to put itself on par with the United States but will only resume nuclear tests if Washington does it first …. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov [said Tuesday] …. He added that if the U.S. conducts a nuclear test, ‘we will be forced to mirror that as […]
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(RAND – rand.org – Bryan Frederick, Mark Cozad, Alexandra Stark – Sept. 21, 2023) [Report home page (HTML) – PDF of full report (108 pages)] “… Further Russian escalation has likely been restrained by three main factors … (1) … NATO military capabilities and reactions, (2) concern for broader international reactions, particularly … China’s … (3) … Russian perception that […]
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“.. .[R]isk of … major disaster at the … Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of … radioactive fallout. The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire … but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the [June 6] […]
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“Officials have discussed possible negative outcomes from Wagner insurrection destabilising Kremlin” “Western nations have explored contingencies in the aftermath of … Prigozhin’s attempted insurrection … including the threat to nuclear stockpiles from an unstable [Russian] regime …. Talks led by G7 members [reportedly] have included [discussions of] how a weakening of … Putin’s control over security and military forces could […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]
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“Sources close to the Kremlin say stress of Ukraine war is turning some to drink State banquets serve luxury cognac costing more than £6,000 a bottle Some Russian admin staff are said to be starting the day with a bottle of vodka” Click here for: “Putin’s administration staff ‘are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council’s […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
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“The War in Ukraine Hinges on One Man’s Thoughts and Feelings.” “Shortly after the West rebuked Russia for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and imposed financial sanctions … Putin … put[] … nuclear forces on high alert. The Kremlin has issued many more nuclear threats, some oblique … some explicit …. Even before the war … Russia … reversed its […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]
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( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]
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“The Kremlin said Tuesday … it’s ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense standoff over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Commenting on … Biden’s statement that Washington is open for talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires […]
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“Beijing has greater economic clout and more aggressive foreign policy than during original talks for 2015 deal.” “… Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia … and … China … Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy […]
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“… Russia counted 527 deployed … ICBMs[] … SLBMs[] and heavy bombers, 1,458 warheads on deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and … heavy bombers as well as 742 deployed and non-deployed launchers of ICBMs, deployed and non-deployed launchers of SLBMs and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers. … with U.S. figures at 665 deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and heavy bombers; 1,389 warheads […]
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The month marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of Academician Andrey Sakharov who developed the hydrogen bomb … then became the leading spokesman for humanism and democracy against the Soviet regime […]
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The U.S. ambassador for disarmament says preparations for a possible meeting between … Putin and … Biden are under way […]
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“… the White House said … it wanted a straight extension of [New START for five years,] a nuclear arms control agreement … fac[ing] imminent expiry …. even as incoming officials have condemned … the Kremlin’s [reputedly] most aggressive anti-western actions in years. … U.S. security services [recently] uncovered a massive cyber-espionage attack on U.S. government computers … blamed on […]
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“… Lavrov said … Moscow is ready to move quickly to keep the pact alive. … New START envisages the possibility of its extension for another five years … [The Russian government] has said … Moscow is ready to do so without … conditions. … [or] to prolong the pact for a shorter term …. [T]alks … have been clouded […]
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Chances still remain for Russia and the United States to reach an understanding before the New START expires in early February, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said […]
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“The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution … urging Russia to immediately withdraw all its military forces from Crimea ‘and end its temporary occupation of the territory of Ukraine without delay.’ The vote in the 193-member world body was 63-17 with 62 abstentions …. Russia sent troops into Crimea and annexed the peninsula in 2014. It has supported separatist rebels […]
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“… [With the agreement] due to expire in February … START treaty [renewal] is a golden opportunity for the West to squeeze … real concessions out of Russia… [T]he Kremlin badly wants to renew the deal. … [I]ts economy suffering from the double whammy of an oil price collapse and … the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the last thing [Russia] wants […]
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MOSCOW. Oct 27 (Interfax) – Russia has not yet received any response from the United States to its proposals on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Washington is setting additional conditions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Tuesday. “We’ve met the U.S. halfway twice over the past few weeks. We haven’t received a proper response. Strictly […]
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“… Putin said … there is no need for a Russia-China military alliance now, but noted it could be forged in the future. … signal[ing] deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing amid growing tensions … with the United States. … [Putin] also made a strong call for extending … [the New START Treaty]. … The U.S. recently … proposed a […]
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“At the very least, analysts expect that a victory for Biden would increase tensions between Washington and Moscow, and would raise the probability of new sanctions on Russia. The country is already operating under international sanctions on some key sectors and Russian officials close to Putin, for actions including its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, interference in the […]
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“Russia dashed hopes of a [nuclear weapons] deal … before next month’s [U.S.] presidential election …. The U.S. proposal for a nuclear freeze … also cover[ing] tactical weapons ‘has long been known to us’ and is rejected by Russia because ‘we need to deal with their new strategic-range’ conventional arms too, including in space and missile defense, said [Russian Deputy […]
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“… A speedy conclusion could be possible on extending New START, which would be in the U.S. interest. Putin has said Moscow would extend without conditions. … [C]hief [U.S.] arms control envoy[] Marshall Billingslea[] has called New START ‘deeply flawed.’ … Billingslea backed away from the demand that China [get involved] … [yet] continued to insist … Russia agree to […]
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“The blast was over 3,000 times bigger than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.” “… [D]eclassified Russian footage [features] the 1961 Tsar Bomba hydrogen bomb test … [of] the largest bomb … detonated on Earth …. a 50-million-ton hydrogen bomb, officially named RDS-220[,] … [set off] late October 1961 … during the height of the Cold War[,] …. 26 feet long […]
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“… U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea met with [Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov] … in Vienna to discuss extending the … New START agreement … [currently limiting] long-range weapons …. [with the U.S. seeking to make New START extension] a first step toward limiting … entire nuclear arsenals … backed by rare bipartisan consensus on […]
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(Interfax – Aug. 18, 2020 – interfax.com/newsroom/exclusive-interviews/69585/) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has given an interview to Interfax correspondent Ksenia Baygarova, in which he speaks about the results of the second round of strategic stability consultations in Vienna, chances to extend the New START Treaty and comments on calls by the United States not to interfere in the situation […]
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“New strategy aims at a framework agreement with Russia, possible pre-election meeting with Putin.” “… the Trump administration signaled … that it will seek to negotiate a separate framework agreement with Moscow and move to bring Beijing on board later. … [which] could open the door for an election-year arms control understanding with Moscow — and possibly a meeting between […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Commentary – Polina Sinovets, Associate Professor, Mechnikov National University, Odessa – Aug. 7, 2020) In a surprise move this past June, Moscow published its first-ever “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence.” The content core of these fundamental principles looks like excerpts from other Russian documents pertaining to the conditions and “red lines” […]
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“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation, the military warned …. in … official military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) … [a warning] directed at the United States, which has worked to develop long-range non-nuclear weapons. [I]n June [Russia published its] … nuclear deterrent policy … envisag[ing] … […]
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MOSCOW. Aug 7 (Interfax) – The U.S. policy aimed at withdrawing from the agreements limiting nuclear weapons may have negative implications for the entire world, representatives of the Russian General Staff said in an article published by the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper on Friday. “The future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a big […]
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MOSCOW. July 10 (Interfax – Primakov Readings) – Russia will promote the idea of the inadmissibility of a nuclear war at the P5 summit of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. “We’re particularly concerned by the fact that the Americans have been refusing for the past two years to […]
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“President’s decision about pact with Russia will be influenced by whether China joins arms-control negotiations and progress toward tougher agreement.” “… A day after a round of Russia-U.S. arms control talks in Vienna, [a U.S.] official said … Trump could agree to extend the [New START Treaty], … due to expire in February, if the parties make progress toward a […]
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“… Why did Russia decide to publish its deterrence policy now? In part, it could be to dispel alleged Western misperceptions about when Russia might use nuclear weapons, specifically the Pentagon’s assessment that Moscow would threaten to use nuclear weapons – or actually do so – to intimidate an adversary into yielding in a major crisis. Previously referred to […]
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The United States and Russia have opened two days of talks on June 22 on their last major nuclear agreement, the New START treaty, which caps the number of deployed long-range nuclear warheads each can have […]
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“… American and Russian diplomats will converge in Vienna … June 22 for arms control negotiations [] possibly … even laying the groundwork to extend the New START deal set to expire in February. … Even if a trilateral deal involving China were possible, experts generally agree it is not achievable before the February deadline. The Trump administration doesn’t ‘have […]
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“Kremlin won’t press Beijing to join talks despite U.S. plea, says diplomat” “Moscow won’t pressure China to join … coming arms-control talks with U.S. and Russian negotiators, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said …. [T]he New START treaty … cutting] long-range U.S. and Russian nuclear arms[] [is] due to expire in February …. Trump … seek[s] a broader agreement […]
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… the U.S. and Russia have traditionally been able to work together to mitigate mutual threats even when their bilateral relationship is in crisis […]
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“The U.S. and Russia have agreed to start arms control talks this month as the only remaining treaty between the two largest nuclear powers is poised to expire in less than a year … Russia has offered to extend the New [START] Treaty … expir[ing] in February, but Trump wants to see a three-way nuclear arms treaty that includes China. […]
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… A country with such a strategy would consider using nuclear weapons – likely tactical ones – at the beginning of a conflict, aiming to press its adversary into quick negotiations. […]
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On June 2, the Russian Federation published … “Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence.” … [a] six-page document … la[ying] out its official position on nuclear deterrence. […]
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