JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin and the Psychology of Nuclear Brinksmanship” – Foreign Affairs

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“The War in Ukraine Hinges on One Man’s Thoughts and Feelings.” “Shortly after the West rebuked Russia for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and imposed financial sanctions … Putin … put[] … nuclear forces on high alert. The Kremlin has issued many more nuclear threats, some oblique … some explicit …. Even before the war … Russia … reversed its […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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Russia in Review, May 19-26, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin says nuclear arms control talks hinge on U.S. goodwill” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“The Kremlin said Tuesday … it’s ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense standoff over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Commenting on … Biden’s statement that Washington is open for talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Hope for Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests on China, Russia” – WSJ

Iran Map and Flag

“Beijing has greater economic clout and more aggressive foreign policy than during original talks for 2015 deal.” “… Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia … and … China … Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, U.S. Release Latest Nuclear Weapons Counts as Moscow-NATO Ties Collapse” – Newsweek

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… Russia counted 527 deployed … ICBMs[] … SLBMs[] and heavy bombers, 1,458 warheads on deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and … heavy bombers as well as 742 deployed and non-deployed launchers of ICBMs, deployed and non-deployed launchers of SLBMs and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers. … with U.S. figures at 665 deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and heavy bombers; 1,389 warheads […]

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Image of Sakharov, Once the Conscience of the Nation, an Increasingly Blurred Figure for Russians, Lev Gudkov Says

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

The month marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of Academician Andrey Sakharov who developed the hydrogen bomb … then became the leading spokesman for humanism and democracy against the Soviet regime […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden faces first foreign policy test with Russian balancing act; White House seeks arms control pact even as it warns of consequences for Navalny arrest” – Financial Times/ Katrina Manson, Henry Foy, Lauren Fedor

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… the White House said … it wanted a straight extension of [New START for five years,] a nuclear arms control agreement … fac[ing] imminent expiry …. even as incoming officials have condemned … the Kremlin’s [reputedly] most aggressive anti-western actions in years. … U.S. security services [recently] uncovered a massive cyber-espionage attack on U.S. government computers … blamed on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia ready for quick extension of last arms pact with U.S.” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“… Lavrov said … Moscow is ready to move quickly to keep the pact alive. … New START envisages the possibility of its extension for another five years … [The Russian government] has said … Moscow is ready to do so without … conditions. … [or] to prolong the pact for a shorter term …. [T]alks … have been clouded […]

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RUSSIALINK: “There are still chances of reaching agreement before New START expires – Russian ambassador to U.S.” – Interfax

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

Chances still remain for Russia and the United States to reach an understanding before the New START expires in early February, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “UN urges Russia to immediately withdraw forces from Crimea” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution … urging Russia to immediately withdraw all its military forces from Crimea ‘and end its temporary occupation of the territory of Ukraine without delay.’ The vote in the 193-member world body was 63-17 with 62 abstentions …. Russia sent troops into Crimea and annexed the peninsula in 2014. It has supported separatist rebels […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “START II is a chance to renew relations between Russia and the West” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… [With the agreement] due to expire in February … START treaty [renewal] is a golden opportunity for the West to squeeze … real concessions out of Russia… [T]he Kremlin badly wants to renew the deal. … [I]ts economy suffering from the double whammy of an oil price collapse and … the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the last thing [Russia] wants […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Moscow, Washington not close to any agreement on New START – Russian deputy FM” – Interfax

Sergei Ryabkov file photo

MOSCOW. Oct 27 (Interfax) – Russia has not yet received any response from the United States to its proposals on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Washington is setting additional conditions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Tuesday. “We’ve met the U.S. halfway twice over the past few weeks. We haven’t received a proper response. Strictly […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin: Russia-China military alliance can’t be ruled out” – AP

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… Putin said … there is no need for a Russia-China military alliance now, but noted it could be forged in the future. … signal[ing] deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing amid growing tensions … with the United States. … [Putin] also made a strong call for extending … [the New START Treaty]. … The U.S. recently … proposed a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russia – and Putin – might be worried about a Biden presidency” – CNBC/ Holly Ellyatt

File Photo of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in front of U.S. Flag and Russian Flag, adapted from image from RIA Novosti

“At the very least, analysts expect that a victory for Biden would increase tensions between Washington and Moscow, and would raise the probability of new sanctions on Russia. The country is already operating under international sanctions on some key sectors and Russian officials close to Putin, for actions including its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, interference in the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Dismisses Trump Hope of Nuclear Deal Before U.S. Vote” – Bloomberg/ Ilya Arkhipov, Henry Meyer, Vladimir Kuznetsov

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Russia dashed hopes of a [nuclear weapons] deal … before next month’s [U.S.] presidential election …. The U.S. proposal for a nuclear freeze … also cover[ing] tactical weapons ‘has long been known to us’ and is rejected by Russia because ‘we need to deal with their new strategic-range’ conventional arms too, including in space and missile defense, said [Russian Deputy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Spinning good news on arms control” – The Hill/ Steven Pifer

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… A speedy conclusion could be possible on extending New START, which would be in the U.S. interest. Putin has said Moscow would extend without conditions. … [C]hief [U.S.] arms control envoy[] Marshall Billingslea[] has called New START ‘deeply flawed.’ … Billingslea backed away from the demand that China [get involved] … [yet] continued to insist … Russia agree to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH VIDEO: “Russia Declassifies Video From 1961 of Largest Hydrogen Bomb Ever Detonated” – Smithsonian Magazine/ Theresa Machemer

File Photo of Tsar Bomba Nuclear Detonation, adapted from image at osd.mil

“The blast was over 3,000 times bigger than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.” “… [D]eclassified Russian footage [features] the 1961 Tsar Bomba hydrogen bomb test …  [of] the largest bomb … detonated on Earth …. a 50-million-ton hydrogen bomb, officially named RDS-220[,] … [set off] late October 1961 … during the height of the Cold War[,] …. 26 feet long […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Administration Seeks Pre-Election Win on Nuclear Arms Deal with Russia” – Time/ John Walcott

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea met with [Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov] … in Vienna to discuss extending the … New START agreement … [currently limiting] long-range weapons ….  [with the U.S. seeking to make New START extension] a first step toward limiting … entire nuclear arsenals … backed by rare bipartisan consensus on […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: Chances to extend New START Treaty aren’t great, but they haven’t dried up yet” – Interfax

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

(Interfax – Aug. 18, 2020 – interfax.com/newsroom/exclusive-interviews/69585/) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has given an interview to Interfax correspondent Ksenia Baygarova, in which he speaks about the results of the second round of strategic stability consultations in Vienna, chances to extend the New START Treaty and comments on calls by the United States not to interfere in the situation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Administration Shifts Course on Russian Arms Talks, Easing Insistence China Join Now” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“New strategy aims at a framework agreement with Russia, possible pre-election meeting with Putin.” “… the Trump administration signaled … that it will seek to negotiate a separate framework agreement with Moscow and move to bring Beijing on board later. … [which] could open the door for an election-year arms control understanding with Moscow — and possibly a meeting between […]

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Hot of [off?] the Press, Colder in Scope: Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Fundamentals 2020

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(PONARS Eurasia Commentary – Polina Sinovets, Associate Professor, Mechnikov National University, Odessa – Aug. 7, 2020) In a surprise move this past June, Moscow published its first-ever “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence.” The content core of these fundamental principles looks like excerpts from other Russian documents pertaining to the conditions and “red lines” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Warns It Will See Any Incoming Missile as Nuclear” – AP

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Russia will perceive any ballistic missile launched at its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants a nuclear retaliation, the military warned …. in … official military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) … [a warning] directed at the United States, which has worked to develop long-range non-nuclear weapons. [I]n June [Russia published its] … nuclear deterrent policy … envisag[ing] … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “NPT dismantlement to increase number of nuclear threshold states – Russian General Staff” – Interfax

File Photo of U.S.-Russian Senior Military Meeting, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to Dominique A. Pineiro

MOSCOW. Aug 7 (Interfax) – The U.S. policy aimed at withdrawing from the agreements limiting nuclear weapons may have negative implications for the entire world, representatives of the Russian General Staff said in an article published by the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper on Friday. “The future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a big […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia able to ensure its security if New START Treaty isn’t extended – Lavrov” – Interfax

Sergei Lavrov file photo

MOSCOW. July 10 (Interfax – Primakov Readings) – Russia will promote the idea of the inadmissibility of a nuclear war at the P5 summit of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. “We’re particularly concerned by the fact that the Americans have been refusing for the past two years to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Administration Weighs Extending New START Nuclear Treaty” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“President’s decision about pact with Russia will be influenced by whether China joins arms-control negotiations and progress toward tougher agreement.” “… A day after a round of Russia-U.S. arms control talks in Vienna, [a U.S.] official said … Trump could agree to extend the [New START Treaty], … due to expire in February, if the parties make progress toward a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine: Don’t Mess With Us – But Let’s Talk” – World Politics Review/ Richard Weitz

Iskander Missile with Launch file photo

  “… Why did Russia decide to publish its deterrence policy now? In part, it could be to dispel alleged Western misperceptions about when Russia might use nuclear weapons, specifically the Pentagon’s assessment that Moscow would threaten to use nuclear weapons – or actually do so – to intimidate an adversary into yielding in a major crisis. Previously referred to […]

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Talks To Salvage Last Major Nuclear Treaty Between U.S., Russia Begin In Vienna

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

The United States and Russia have opened two days of talks on June 22 on their last major nuclear agreement, the New START treaty, which caps the number of deployed long-range nuclear warheads each can have […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Upcoming nuclear arms talks with Russia a chance to save this key treaty” – The Hill/ Bonnie Kristian

Russia ICBM on Mobile Launcher

“… American and Russian diplomats will converge in Vienna … June 22 for arms control negotiations [] possibly … even laying the groundwork to extend the New START deal set to expire in February. … Even if a trilateral deal involving China were possible, experts generally agree it is not achievable before the February deadline. The Trump administration doesn’t ‘have […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Negotiator Doubts China Will Join 3-Way Arms Accord Sought by Trump” – Wall Street Journal/ Michael R. Gordon

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Kremlin won’t press Beijing to join talks despite U.S. plea, says diplomat” “Moscow won’t pressure China to join … coming arms-control talks with U.S. and Russian negotiators, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said …. [T]he New START treaty … cutting] long-range U.S. and Russian nuclear arms[] [is] due to expire in February …. Trump … seek[s] a broader agreement […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s new nuclear policy could be a path to arms control treaties” – Defense News/ Sarah Bidgood

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

… the U.S. and Russia have traditionally been able to work together to mitigate mutual threats even when their bilateral relationship is in crisis […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia to Start Nuclear Arms Control Talks This Month” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“The U.S. and Russia have agreed to start arms control talks this month as the only remaining treaty between the two largest nuclear powers is poised to expire in less than a year … Russia has offered to extend the New [START] Treaty … expir[ing] in February, but Trump wants to see a three-way nuclear arms treaty that includes China. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Puts Defensive Face on Its Nuclear Doctrine Ahead of Arms-Control Negotiations” – Defense One/ Patrick Tucker

Russian Nuclear Submarine

… A country with such a strategy would consider using nuclear weapons – likely tactical ones – at the beginning of a conflict, aiming to press its adversary into quick negotiations. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A brazen foray into the Barents yields predictable Cold War-type friction” – Responsible Statecraft/ Lyle J. Goldstein

File Photo of U.S. Naval Ships in Joint Exercises with UK in Barents Sea, adapted from defense.gov image with photo credit to U.S. Navy Petty Officer 3rd Class Anthony Nichols

” … [M]ilitary escalations in the High North need more attention … [not] the [U.S.] media focus … on … Russian trolls, social media influence peddlers, spies, and various ‘useful idiots.’ … [W]hen the New York Times … seemingly … tr[ied] to investigate what might actually be going on under the … waters of the Barents and off the Norwegian […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Nuclear Deterrent Policy Allows Nuclear Strikes Against Non-Nuclear Threats” – AP

Iskander Missile with Launch file photo

“… Putin … endorsed Russia’s nuclear deterrent policy which allows him to use atomic weapons in response to a conventional strike targeting … critical government and military infrastructure. … including a non-nuclear attack as a possible trigger for Russian nuclear retaliation … The new expanded wording reflects Russian concerns about the development of prospective weapons that could give Washington the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Moscow would benefit from Beijing’s involvement in strategic arms reduction talks – expert” – Interfax

Asia Map

China’s involvement in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty will put Russia in a more advantageous position, and Moscow could share its experience of such talks with Beijing … Sergei Rogov said […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia publishes list of key dangers due to which nuclear deterrence may be used” – Interfax

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

MOSCOW. June 2 (Interfax) – Russia may employ its nuclear deterrence capabilities in case of threats of aggression against it resulting from certain actions by potential adversaries, according to the fundamentals of Russia’s state nuclear deterrence policy, which were endorsed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. The presidential decree lists the key dangers which, depending on changes in the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Is a ‘Distinct Civilization,’ Putin Says” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – May 18, 2020) Russia is a distinct civilization that must be protected through genetics and other advanced technologies, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview that aired Sunday. Putin told state television that “it would be impossible to secure the future of our civilization” without artificial intelligence, genetics and unmanned vehicles, as well as hypersonic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What’s preventing a respite from the broken U.S.-Russia relationship?” – Defense News/ Steven Keil

“… In addition to a rare joint statement … Trump and … Putin connected numerous times over the past several weeks according to public reports. These developments stand out … [T]ies between Moscow and Washington have long been frozen in place. [Recent developments are] even more surprising given the Kremlin’s continued actions in places like Syria and Ukraine. The dual […]

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Arms Control in the COVID-19 Era: No Next Step without New START

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

… another urgent existential threat is quietly growing in the background: the steady termination of nuclear arms control treaties between the United States and the Russian Federation and the absence of new arms control negotiations. ..

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Prevent the outbreak of another global security threat. Extend New START.” – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists/ Daryl G. Kimball

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“… New START … signed 10 years ago, verifiably caps each nation’s strategic nuclear arsenals at no more than 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 missile and bomber delivery platforms. The treaty has worked well for both sides. The latest data exchange mandated by the treaty shows Russia with 1,326 deployed warheads on 485 deployed delivery systems, while the United States […]

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U.S. Official: New START Treaty Should Cover Russian Weapon Systems Under Development

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – March 10, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/us-official-new-start-treaty-should-cover-russian-weapons-systems-under-development/30479166.html) An extension of the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia should include new weapons systems that Moscow is developing, a U.S. State Department official said in a briefing on March 9. The New […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What do Putin’s constitutional changes mean for Russian nuclear launch authority?” – Federation of American Scientists/ Matt Korda

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… This shift in power [under the new system proposed by Putin] …  poses a series of complications for Russia’s system of nuclear launch authority. Under Article 87.1 of the Russian Constitution, the President is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces … the Law On Defence states that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is the ultimate authority on all nuclear-related matter. […]

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Lavrov: U.S. Has ‘No Proof’ Russia Deployed Missile In Violation Of Treaty

Sergei Lavrov file photo

(Article text ©2019 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Nov. 8, 2019 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/lavrov-u-s-has-no-proof-russia-deployed-missile-in-violation-of-treaty/30259758.html) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has lashed out at the United States, accusing Washington of failing to provide proof that Moscow deployed a missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Earlier this year, Washington withdrew […]

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Forget U.S.-Russian Friendship: Let’s Foster ‘Predictable Competition’ [re: George Beebe]

Vladirmir Putin and Donald Trump Sitting in Chairs with Flags Behind, adapted from image at whitehouse.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Thomas Schaffner – Oct. 16, 2019) The U.S. and Russia have reduced their nuclear arsenals by about 70 and 80 percent, respectively, since the peak of the Cold War, according to the Federation of American Scientists, and the two countries remain committed to bilateral and multilateral documents meant to prevent either intentional or accidental war […]

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RUSSIALINK: “U.S. still lacks technology to deploy shorter-range, intermediate-range missiles – Huntsman” – Interfax

File Photo of John Huntsman, Men in Military Uniforms and Others, adapted from image at army.mil

MOSCOW. Oct 2 (Interfax) – The United States, unlike Russia, lacks technology for deploying shorter-range and intermediate-range missiles, outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman said. Commenting on recent U.S. tests, the ambassador said in an interview with Kommersant that the U.S. so far does not possess the necessary technology. He said that if the Pentagon were set to buy […]

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