JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel” – Financial Times

“Demand for atomic energy is surging but Moscow dominates the world’s supplies of enriched uranium.” “… Utilities companies have spent two years stockpiling nuclear fuel in case Russian supplies are disrupted. … Washington is undertaking a multibillion-dollar push to rebuild its nuclear supply chain …. More than a fifth of the fuel used by the 93 nuclear reactors in the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Elite Emerges to Fill Void After Multinationals Flee” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“Foreign firms have sold assets worth over $21 billion Third wave of business elite swoops in to grab bargains” “A new cohort of Russian business elite has emerged to benefit from the void left when international firms suddenly exited following … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. … snapp[ing] up assets at discounted prices after … multinationals … [left due to] pressure […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Squeezed by Sanctions, Some Oligarchs Are Heading Home to Putin’s Russia” – Bloomberg

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“Putin’s war in Ukraine is leaving billionaires who sought to integrate with the West to face the reality of international isolation.” “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed everything for [certain Russian oligarchs] … who prospered under Putin until the U.S. and Europe imposed sweeping sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin leader and bringing his economy to its knees. The penalties […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russians allowed to compete as neutral athletes at the 2024 Paralympics in Paris” – AP

Olympic Rings Lit at Night, adapted from image at state.gov

“Russians will be allowed … as neutral athletes at next year’s Paralympics in Paris … following the invasion of Ukraine. The International Paralympic Committee voted 74-65 … on Friday against suspending Russia’s membership entirely — which would have meant a full ban … then voted 90-65 in favor of ‘partially’ suspending the country through 2025. … because of ‘breaches of […]

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In Dealing With Ordinary Russians, the West’s Values Are At Stake

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Ekaterina Kotrikadze, News Director and Anchor, TV Rain (Dozhd TV) – Sept. 27, 2023) Russian citizens are facing new restrictions. European Union authorities have just prohibited them from crossing the union’s border in cars bearing Russian license plates and from carrying certain items with them. As these restrictions were being introduced, European sanctions were being […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Flagship Oil Above $60 Does Little to Halt G-7 Services” – Bloomberg

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… The price of Russia’s flagship oil … jump[ing] above a [G7] imposed cap … has done little to impede … western services for the trade. …. About 40% of vessels lifting crude from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports were owned by companies based in countries signed up to the cap. Before the threshold was breached, about half were […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Airlines Import $1.2Bln Worth of Western Parts Despite Sanctions – Reuters” – Moscow Times

Russian Plane file photo, adapted from image at ice.gov

(Moscow Times – Aug. 23, 2023) Russian airlines have continued to import spare parts for Western aircraft despite sanctions designed to cut off the flow of key equipment, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing customs data. Ural Airlines, Norwdind Airlines, S7, Aeroflot and others have imported $1.2 billion worth of spare parts from third parties between May 2022 and June 2023, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia will struggle to cope with a sinking rouble” – The Economist

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

“What does the currency’s collapse mean for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war?” On Aug. 14, 2023, the value of the ruble fell below 1 cent in U.S. currency, more than 100 rubles per U.S. dollar.  That was the ruble’s worst exchange value against the U.S. dollar since the immediate aftermath of the early 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. “… […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: ‘Vladimir Putin’s useful idiots; Too many European politicians are failing to confront Russia” – The Economist

Europe Map

“… The spectrum of Europe’s Useful Idiots, a cold-war term for unwitting allies of communism, is wide. In politics, parties on both the far right and far left disagree on much; but over Ukraine these extremes have often converged in demanding an instant ‘peace’ that would in effect reward Russian aggression with land. In media and academe, intellectuals still seem […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 26-July 5, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Risks Return to Planned Economy – Central Bank” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Moscow Times – June 15, 2023) Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Thursday that Russia is at risk of reverting to a planned economic system as it grapples with restructuring challenges driven by soaring war expenses and unprecedented Western sanctions. “The temptation to manage economic restructuring can lead to [a situation] where we suppress private initiative [by businesses], not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Elite Is Souring on Putin’s Chances of Winning His War” – Bloomberg

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Even some who support the invasion and want to intensify the fight against Ukraine have become deflated about Russia’s prospects.” “… [D]eepening gloom … grip[s] Russia’s elite about … Putin’s war in Ukraine, with even the most optimistic seeing a ‘frozen’ conflict as the best available outcome …. Many within the political and business elite [reportedly] are tired of the […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Alfa Tycoons as Victims? Come On” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Moscow Times – Farida Rustamova, Maxim Tovkaylo – March 10, 2023) The first high-profile attempt by a group of Russian billionaires to get European sanctions against them lifted with help from the country’s political opposition has ended in bitter acrimony and the resignation of Leonid Volkov — a close ally of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny — from his position […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions aren’t keeping name brands out of Russia. Why not?” – Christian Science Monitor

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Western sanctions aren’t keeping iPhones off Russian shelves or Hollywood films out of Moscow’s theaters. ‘Parallel imports’ are making Russia’s economy more resilient than expected.” “… Frustrating U.S. and European sanctions hawks, Russia appears to be weathering the West’s attempts to damage its economy in response to the invasion of Ukraine. … Via what are known as ‘parallel imports,’ Russian […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. imports uranium from Russia. What if sanctions end that?” – Washington Post

“If sanctions are imposed on Rosatom, Russia’s civilian nuclear firm, it could cut off exports of uranium to the U.S. and European nuclear industry. What would be the impact?” “Russia’s state-owned nuclear power conglomerate, Rosatom, is suspected of supplying the Russian arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel …. The military goods were sent to more […]

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Russia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Are In Decline

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Asks Members to Set Russia Oil-Price Cap at $60” – WSJ

Oil Well file photo

“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian central bank looks to spread risks across banking sector – Expert magazine” – Reuters

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“As Russian banks contend with foreign currency and payment headaches, the central bank [reportedly] is determined to redistribute funding and risks across the sector to safeguard those lenders [targeted by Western sanctions] …. The West imposed unprecedented measures against Russia’s banking sector after … [the] Feb. 24 [invasion of Ukraine], blocking major banks from … SWIFT … and limiting their […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia plans to sue over frozen currency reserves, central bank says” – Financial Times

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western sanctions have cut off Moscow from nearly half of its foreign exchange holdings.” “… Two days after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine … G7 countries and the European Commission announced … sanctions on Russia’s central bank to block it from accessing its foreign exchange holdings. The central bank is unable to access nearly half of its $609.4bn in […]

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Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ukraine Standoff Threatens to Derail Russia’s Domestic Battle Against Inflation; Even without invasion, the crisis is accentuating rising price pressures at home” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine threatens to compromise Russia’s domestic economic plans and accentuate the country’s cost of living crisis […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Biden’s Sanctions Threats ‘Destabilizing,’ Kremlin Says” – Moscow Times

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 20, 2022) The Kremlin warned Thursday that U.S. President Joe Biden’s threats of sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine destabilize European security. “All these statements can contribute to the destabilization of the situation,” Interfax quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling reporters. “We believe that they don’t contribute in any way to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow.” Europe’s growing dependence on Russian gas and oil is limiting [European] room to maneuver … and making [Europe] highly vulnerable … [if] escalation [occurs in the crisis with Russia]. … Western officials accuse [Russia] of withholding extra supplies in recent months to force European […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing” – Foreign Affairs

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Toast of Emerging Markets in 2021, Russia Gives Pause” – Bloomberg

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“… For all the gains [Russia’s] assets … made in the past 12 months, a military incursion into Ukraine [reportedly] would transform the narrative instantly …. Unprecedented U.S. and European sanctions would leave Russia off-limits to many investors, rendering the benefits of rising commodity prices, record international reserves and the central bank’s hawkish turn all but irrelevant. … [T]ensions with […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Cutting Russia off from SWIFT would become common problem, since Russian exports would not be waived – Siluanov” – Interfax

Anton Siluanov file photo

MOSCOW. Dec 30 (Interfax) – Russia’s disconnection from SWIFT is theoretically possible, but such a decision would be a common headache: foreign partners, primarily in Europe, will not be able to waive exports from Russia and will be forced to look for other methods of payments, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with the Rossiya 24 television channel. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “No time for war: Russians see no chance of conflict” – BBC

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

The build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has led to fears of an invasion and all-out war. For most Russians there is little interest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. intelligence-sharing convinces allies of Russian threat to Ukraine” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Skeptical capitals including Berlin persuaded of the need to draw up threat of robust sanctions […]

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Europe Needs Nord Stream 2 More Than It Likes To Admit

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

Europe resents Russian gas for the influence it gives a country that the EU considers unfriendly, …, but … is increasingly thirsty for gas because … [last year’s] winter… drained its reserves. … [and] summer … LNG cargoes [got] diverted from Europe to Asia […]

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Local Staff At U.S. Embassy, Consulates In Russia Dismissed To Meet Kremlin Deadline

File Photo of U.S. Embassy Moscow, with Russian Foreign Ministry Building in Distance

The United States says it has laid off nearly 200 local employees from its diplomatic missions in Russia ahead of an August 1 deadline set by the Kremlin … a move made by Moscow in response to U.S. sanctions and the expulsion of Russian diplomats […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine urges Congress to maintain sanctions on Nord Stream 2” – Financial Times

Gas Flame file photo

“Completion of pipeline would be ‘victory for Russia’ and a ‘personal loss’ for Biden, says Zelensky.” “Ukraine has stepped up … pressure on Washington over the contentious Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, appealing to … Congress to maintain sanctions against the project. The Ukrainian parliament … overwhelmingly backed a resolution calling on U.S. lawmakers to override […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Raises Rates Amid Standoff With West, Signs of Covid-19 Economic Recovery; Central bank increases its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 5%” – Wall Street Journal

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“… The Bank of Russia raised its main rate to 5% from 4.5% …. [saying] it expected inflation to be higher than previously anticipated, citing a rebound in demand as Russia’s Covid-19 vaccination program progressed. … The central bank signaled concern about other developments …. follow[ing] [U.S. sanctions] bar[ring] U.S. banks and institutional investors from buying new Russian government ruble-denominated […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Should Russian Banks Be Scared of SWIFT Disconnection?” – Moscow Times

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

Talk of financial Armageddon should Russia be kicked out of the system may be overblown. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – April 22, 2021) Jake covers business & economics for The Moscow Times. Ukraine has joined the chorus of voices calling for Russia to be disconnected from SWIFT — the financial messaging network that underpins the global banking […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Central Bank sees no risks in disconnecting Russia from international payment systems; it would be very unfavorable for them – CBR first deputy governor” – Interfax

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

MOSCOW. April 14 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) does not see any risks in disconnecting Russia from the international payment systems, as this would be unfavorable for them, CBR first deputy governor Olga Skorobogatova said during a briefing on Wednesday. “If we are talking about the current situation, then I believe that it is rather calm and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Recalls Its Ambassador to the U.S. for Consultations” – Wall Street Journal

Cropped File Photo of Anatoly Antonov with U.S. Flag, adapted from image at state.gov

“Moscow’s move follows a critical U.S. intelligence report about Russian efforts to interfere in the 2020 presidential election.” “… [Russian Ambassador to the United States] Anatoly Antonov[‘s] … summon[ing] to Moscow came … after a U.S. intelligence report … accus[ing] … Putin of … a wide-ranging influence operation to interfere in the 2020 U.S. election …. Antonov was … previously […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Bars Ukrainian Banking Tycoon Over Corruption Allegations” – Wall Street Journal/ Ian Talley, Alan Cullison, Georgi Kantchev

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The action prevents Ihor Kolomoisky and family from entering the U.S. but is also likely to complicate his financial and business dealings” “… [U.S.] sanctions on a Ukrainian banking tycoon and former public official … for alleged corruption[] mark[] a renewed effort … to help Kyiv address a problem that finance officials say is at the heart of the country’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH VIDEO: “Navalny and the Kremlin: Politics and Protest in Russia” – NYU Jordan Center, Columbia University Harriman Institute

File Photo of Alexei Navalny Marching on Street with Others in Background; adapted from image at commons.wikimedia.org with credit to Evgeny Feldman, subject to Creative Commons license; original image at commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEV_1795_(cropped1).jpg, with license information at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en and creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode

“On February 1st, the Jordan Center and the Harriman Institute co-hosted a panel on Alexei Navalny as part of the New York–Russia Public Policy Series. Panelists included Yana Gorokhovskaia, Research Fellow at the Institute of Modern Russia; Pjotr Sauer, Journalist at the Moscow Times; Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, Reader in Russian Politics at King’s College London; and Aleksandra Urman, Postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Communication and […]

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U.S. Sanctions Against Russia May Be Recalibrated, But Overhaul Unlikely

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Ingrid Burke – Feb. 19, 2021) Ingrid Burke is a fellow at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. As President Joe Biden settles into the Oval Office, he has filled the upper echelons of his new administration with officials who have vocally supported sanctions against Russia. While it is difficult to predict specific […]

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Any Increase in Western Sanctions on Russia will Only Make It Easier for Kremlin to Repress Its People, Inozemtsev Says

Truck at Russian Border Crossing

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Feb. 13, 2021) One of the paradoxes of relations between Russia and the West is that when Russian actions at home or abroad prompt Western governments to react by seeking to impose penalties on Moscow, those penalties only make it easier for the Kremlin to repress its population at home, Vladislav Inozemtsev […]

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