JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Happened to ‘Stalemate’ in Ukraine?” – Council on Foreign Relations: Stephen Sestanovich
“The two-year-old war in Ukraine — which is far from deadlocked — could pivot dramatically in the coming months. U.S. decisions will play a decisive role.”
“… Russia and Ukraine could soon be looking at a transformed conflict … in which both have real reasons for hope as well as fear. … Russia’s newly amped-up military strategy heightens the danger still more. … Moscow has once again increased strikes against power plants and urban targets … [with] a spike in casualties and a loss of electricity in large parts of some [Ukrainian] cities. Russian forces are also relying more heavily on ‘glide bombs’ … equipped with wings and guidance systems and fired from planes beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defenses. … The ability to hold off Russian pressures on the front lines will not by itself turn the war’s tide in Ukraine’s favor. Success … will depend on whether the Biden administration [] and … European partners [] are also willing to loosen restrictions … on Ukrainian strategy and operations. If Ukrainian forces possessed enough longer-range missile systems, they would be able to reduce — perhaps even neutralize — Russia’s use of Crimea as a rear area supporting its troops …. If Western governments stop discouraging attacks on oil refineries … Kyiv’s drone operators could begin to threaten the supply of fuel for both the Russian domestic market and [Russian] military operations in Ukraine. A further loss of ships in its Black Sea fleet would put Moscow still more desperately on the defensive — and even increase the risk of troop mutinies, draft riots, and second thoughts within Russia’s elite. This range of outcomes … makes clear how fleeting the seeming stalemate of the war was. … By … February 2025, there is a very real chance that one side will have won and the other lost. ….”