Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Almost No Russian Oil Sold Below G7 Price Cap – FT” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells File Photo

(Moscow Times – Nov. 14, 2023) Russia has managed to almost entirely circumvent a G7 price cap on its oil exports, with Moscow claiming average sales at more than $20 per barrel above the imposed limit, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Western officials and Russian export data. [ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad] According to an unnamed senior European official who spoke to FT, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine to Putin: You cut our power, we kneecap your biggest economic driver” – Politico

Gas Flame file photo

“‘It would only be fair,’ Galushchenko says of attacking Russian oil and gas in response to possible attacks against Ukraine’s grid this winter.” “Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said …. Galushchenko … said Russia has […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A higher global oil price will help Russia pay for its war; The Kremlin tries new tactics to keep proceeds afloat” – The Economist

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… After … record volumes in recent months, despite Western embargoes, dwindling production and the [Black Sea navigational] risks … Russia’s crude shipments fell to 3m barrels a day (b/d) in August … 800,000 lower than … April-May … and below pre-war levels. …. On September 5th Russia said it would extend a ‘voluntary’ 300,000 b/d cut … to the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Flagship Oil Above $60 Does Little to Halt G-7 Services” – Bloomberg

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… The price of Russia’s flagship oil … jump[ing] above a [G7] imposed cap … has done little to impede … western services for the trade. …. About 40% of vessels lifting crude from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports were owned by companies based in countries signed up to the cap. Before the threshold was breached, about half were […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Following Xi’s lead? Russia takes closer look at Chinese ideology.” – Christian Science Monitor

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Is Russia’s future aligned with China? Many in Moscow think so, seeing the two countries’ visions aligning not just geopolitically, but also ideologically – though it may cost Russia considerably.” “… Russia’s turn toward Asia, and China in particular, has been greatly accelerated by souring relations with the West …. Western sanctions [have] made it a matter of urgent necessity […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia got richer even as the war in Ukraine raged on last year, while the West shed trillions of dollars of wealth” – Business Insider

Hand Pulling Cash from Envelope

“Russia added $600 billion of total wealth last year … [according to Swiss bank] UBS …. The number of millionaires and ultra-high-net-worth individuals also rose, despite the war in Ukraine …. … [T]he U.S. and Europe shed trillions of dollars worth of wealth, [UBS] reported. …” “UBS acknowledges … ‘wealth trends in Russia are difficult to determine …’  …. Rising […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 12-20, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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Russia in Review, May 19-26, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Oil Exports Hit Post-Invasion High – IEA” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Moscow Times – May 16, 2023) Russia’s oil exports rose in April to the highest level since its invasion of Ukraine, boosting revenues by $1.7 billion despite Western sanctions, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. The Paris-based organization said Russian exports increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 8.3 million bpd last month, estimating that the country did not fully […]

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Russia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Are In Decline

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Asks Members to Set Russia Oil-Price Cap at $60” – WSJ

Oil Well file photo

“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “CIA Chief Says Intelligence Agencies Haven’t Concluded Russia Will Invade Ukraine” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian President Putin is assembling a potent military force and may see a chance to act this winter, William Burns says […]

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Infrastructure in Russia’s Arctic: Environmental Impact and Considerations

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 73 – Thomas Eric Rotnem – Nov. 2021) Professor of Political Science and Associate Director, School of Government and International Affairs, Kennesaw State University In 2007, Russia signaled its commitment to pursue territorial claims in the Arctic by planting a titanium Russian flag on the polar seabed. Now, Russia is moving well […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Rosneft announces energy transition strategy as climate conference approaches” – bne Intellinews

File Photo of Rosneft and Russian Flags Next to Rosneft Banner

“Oil giant Rosneft announced the creation of a plan to transition to green energy, but also warned that fossil fuels would never fully be replaced.” “Russian state oil major Rosneft is developing a new strategy centred on the transition to renewable energy resources. … [according to] CEO Igor Sechin …. However, … [he] stress[ed] that oil and gas would continue […]

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Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

Iran Map and Flag

The seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out. Full membership of the economic, military and political, SCO alliance will lead to major strategic investments in Iran’s up-and-downstream sectors […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Economic Reality Is Dragging Russia Toward Climate Acceptance” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Europe’s border tax and China’s carbon-neutral ambitions might just force a fossil fuel giant to face climate facts.” “… Sooner than expected, Putin’s hydrocarbon-dependent regime has found itself watching key markets slip away as China targets net-zero emissions and Europe introduces measures including a levy on heavy industry imports that fail to meet its climate protection standards. Having lauded the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Storm, rains near Novorossiysk help reduce pollution in Black Sea after oil product spill – WWF” – Interfax

Black Sea Satellite Photo file image

MOSCOW. Aug 13 (Interfax) – The concentration of oil products in the Black Sea following a spill in the area of Novorossiysk is decreasing due to a storm and heavy rains, the head of the WWF Russia program for corporate environmental responsibility, Alexei Knizhnikov told Interfax on Friday. “There is a very strong storm happening now in the vicinity of […]

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Why Russian Oil Giant Lukoil Won’t Give Up On This Huge Oilfield

Iraq Map, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Oilprice.com – Simon Watkins – Aug. 10, 2021) There was always something that did not look quite right about Lukoil’s recent announcement that it was going to withdraw from Iraq’s huge West Qurna 2 oil field, located 65 kilometers northwest of the southern port of Basra and with roughly 14 billion barrels of reserves in place. So it has proven, […]

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Putin Says Russia Is Ready To Hand Over Cybercriminals, But Only If U.S. Does The Same

Gas Pump File Photo with Nozzle in Car

… a cybercriminal group that U.S. authorities said operates from Russia penetrated a pipeline operator on the U.S. East Coast, locking its systems and demanding a ransom. … caus[ing] a shutdown … [leading] to a spike in gas prices, panic buying, and localized fuel shortages […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Military Seeks to Outmuscle U.S. in Arctic” – Wall Street Journal

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“For Moscow it is the last geopolitical battleground where it holds the advantage over Washington and Beijing” “… [N]ew and refurbished bases [are] meant to service the Kremlin’s ambitions in the resource-rich Arctic. … combined to form a new military district … under … the Northern Fleet, Russia’s foremost Arctic naval force[] … [with fleet] headquarters … on the Kola […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic-Superpower Jostling Heats Up as Russia Takes on Key Role” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

“Russia’s Sergei Lavrov claimed this week that ‘this is our land and our waters’ as NATO allies boost military activity” “… Russian and U.S. diplomats … [signal] rising tensions between [powers] racing to seize Arctic resources …. Arctic Council [participants] weren’t due to discuss security. But … Russia’s … Sergei Lavrov declared … the Arctic ‘is our land and our […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia: Foreign Policy and U.S. Relations [Excerpt]” – Congressional Research Service

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rise to leadership more than 20 years ago, tensions have increased steadily between Russia and the United States […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia seizes on Suez blockage to promote merits of Arctic route” – Financial Times

Suez Canal and Environs Aerial File Photo, adapted from image at nasa.gov

Moscow is busy highlighting the northern sea route and Nordstream as alternatives for world trade […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Could Russia Benefit From the Suez Canal Blockage?” – Moscow Times

Suez Canal and Environs Aerial File Photo, adapted from image at nasa.gov

The Kremlin wants to use the grounding of the Ever Given ship to promote its Northern Sea Route and counter European concerns over Nord Stream 2. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – March 26, 2021) Almost $300 million worth of Russian oil products are waiting to enter the Suez Canal, which remains closed following the grounding of the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “About the Kremlin Propaganda — Our Democracy Needs To Be Protected” – Bild

Brandeburg Gate in Berlin, Germany, file photo adapted from image at state.gov

“As a dictator, … Putin has continued what he failed to do as a KGB agent in the GDR [East Germany] … his fight against a freedom-loving Germany and a united Europe. For years, Putin has been running riot with impunity in [Germany]. … buying off influential ex-politicians with lucrative oil projects, such as Nord Stream 2. … support[ing] the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Where Climate Scientists See Danger, Russia Sees an Opportunity” – Bloomberg

Map of Arctic Highlighting Permafrost, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“Rising temperatures in the Arctic are a warning sign for the planet. The melting ice has an economic upside for Russia.” “Russia … fourth-biggest [greenhouse gas] emitter … [also faces Arctic] temperatures … warming more than twice [that of global rates] …. [With] more than a fifth of the planet’s forests, Russia has [had] two consecutive years of record-breaking wildfires […]

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Russian Company Pays Largest Legal Award In History — Almost $2 Billion — For Devastating Arctic Fuel Spill

File Photos of Law Books and Gavel, adapted from image at fjc.gov

… [T]he Krasnoyarsk City Court of Arbitration ruled that almost all of the sum, the largest legal award in Russian history, must go to the federal treasury […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Global structure of energy consumption unlikely to change much in coming decades, role of hydrocarbons to remain – Putin” – Interfax

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

MOSCOW. Jan 25 (Interfax) – The structure of energy consumption worldwide is unlikely to change significantly, with hydrocarbons all the same set to remain in demand for a long period, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday during a meeting of the government with university students to mark the occasion of the country’s Students’ Day. “The whole world is absorbed […]

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Putin: Russia Reduces Its Dependence On Oil

Oil Well file photo

(Oilprice.com – Irina Slav – Dec. 17, 2020) Russia is successfully weaning itself off oil revenues, President Vladimir Putin said today during an annual end-of-the-year news conference, as quoted by RT. “This means that, while we’re not completely there, we are nonetheless starting to get off the so-called oil and gas needle,” Putin said, adding, “If someone still wants to […]

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Russia Calls For A Global Response To The Oil Demand Crisis

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Oilprice.com – Irina Slav – Sept. 28, 2020) All players on the global energy market need to act together to tackle the effects of the pandemic on oil demand, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at a virtual meeting of G20 energy ministers this weekend. “Our task, as the leaders of the energy industry, is to show stamina and solidarity […]

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Belarus Crisis Highlights Europe’s Energy Problem

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

(Oilprice.com – Vanand Meliksetian – Sept. 24, 2020) The ongoing demonstrations in Belarus and the looming instability are a threat to both Russia and the EU. Moscow prefers the continuation of Lukashenko’s regime due to political reasons. Europe, on the other hand, faces an energy crisis if the situation escalates which could lead to a disruption of supplies. Belarus’ geographic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Crumbling Power Vertical: Decreasing Disposable Income Drives Discontentment” – PONARS Eurasia

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Accumulating evidence points at prospects of growing destabilization at the regional level in Russia. In 2019, five consecutive years of economic stagnation ignited a wave of protests across the country. In 2020, as Russia’s economic situation worsened dramatically due to a pandemic-driven halt to economic activity combined with a fall in oil prices, support for Kremlin appointees might start crumbling […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Travel Ban, Oil Supplies on Russia-Belarus Agenda” – Moscow Times

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Sept. 4, 2020) Russia and Belarus are preparing to reopen borders that were closed because of the coronavirus pandemic and are discussing rerouting Belarusian oil exports through Russia, news outlets reported after high-level talks Thursday. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and his delegation met Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his government in Minsk amid continuing […]

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