JRL NEWSWATCH: “America’s New Twilight Struggle With Russia; To Prevail, Washington Must Revive Containment” – Foreign Affairs: Max Bergmann, Michael Kimmage, Jeffrey Mankoff, Maria Snegovaya

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… [C]containment should prioritize defending Russia’s threatened neighbors, especially those that do not have a clear and immediate path to NATO membership. Apart from Ukraine, Russia’s most vulnerable neighbors include [non-NATO] Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova …. The United States should offer … training and weapons … [and] bolster [their] resilience against Russian gray-zone threats, ranging from cyberattacks to election meddling. […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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Peeling Away the Layers of Russian Foreign Policy

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 87 – William E. Pomeranz – January 2024) William Pomeranz is the Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine is fast approaching its two-year anniversary, with no end in sight. Russia continues to put on a brave face on this military and economic quagmire,[1] with Prime […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis Deepens Divides in Armenia Toward Russia” – Moscow Times

Azerbaijan Map, including Nagorno-Karabakh, adapted from state.gov image

(Moscow Times – Kirill Ponomarev – Sept. 28, 2023) YEREVAN, Armenia – Tigran has been protesting outside the Russian embassy every day since Azerbaijan launched its offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the embassy’s steps, flowers have been laid in memory of the peacekeepers who were killed by Azerbaijani shelling last week. “Are these bloody flowers for the occupiers?” reads the poster […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “With world distracted, Azerbaijan tries to stamp out Karabakh separatists” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“Russia has long maintained the status quo in the Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. But Moscow no longer appears willing to do so, and Azerbaijanis are taking the region back by force.” “Time may be running out for the self-declared republic of Artsakh … within Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian-populated region of Azerbaijan. As Azerbaijani forces launched a concerted military assault […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Faces Geopolitical Setback in South Caucasus” – Foreign Policy

Yerevan

“Armenia turns toward West after accusing Russia of failing as a partner.” “… Armenia is having second thoughts about its longtime partnership with Russia and is beginning to shift … toward the West, … an embarrassing setback for the Kremlin in the strategic region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said … his country’s reliance on Russia wasn’t paying off, particularly […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despite war, post-Soviet states find breaking up with Russia hard to do” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

… [At this year’s Victory Day parade,] Putin was joined … by the leaders of seven other post-Soviet countries, including all five former Soviet Central Asian republics, plus Armenia and Belarus. After more than a year of severe stress, many of those countries have sought to distance themselves from embattled Moscow and find alternative avenues for trade, political connections, and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Not partners, but on same page: Russia, West push Armenian-Azeri peace” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“Even while starkly divided over the war in Ukraine, Russia and the West show hints of being able to find common ground on other issues of importance, as evidenced by an imminent Armenian-Azeri peace treaty.” “A peace deal to end the bitter, three-decade-long conflict over the fate of the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh inside Azerbaijan appears almost within reach. … […]

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Russia’s Karabakh Protectorate Taking Clearer Shape (Part One)

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(The Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 18, Issue 45 – Vladimir Socor – March 18, 2021) Russia’s military “peacekeeping” intervention in Upper (“Nagorno”) Karabakh in November 2020 laid the foundation for a Russian de facto protectorate (see EDM, December 8, 10, 2020). The Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) has resulted in a partition of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia PM announces snap polls to defuse crisis” – AFP

Yerevan

“… Armenia’s humiliating defeat at the hands of Azerbaijan’s technologically superior army spurred mass protests in the impoverished ex-Soviet republic on the borders of Turkey and Iran. Last month [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol ] Pashinyan fired the country’s most senior military official, accusing the army chief of staging a coup after he called on the prime minister to resign. … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Armenian Armed Forces demand PM Pashinyan’s resignation – General Staff” – Interfax

Yerevan

YEREVAN. Feb 25 (Interfax) – The Armenian Armed Forces demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the national government, the Armed Forces’ General Staff said in a statement. “The General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces strongly protests against the relief of General Staff First Deputy Chief Tiran Khachatryan of duties for short-sighted and unfounded reasons, which was […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia seeks bigger Russian military presence on its territory” – Reuters

Yerevan

“Armenia would welcome .. expansion of a Russian military base on its territory and … redeployment of some Russian forces closer to its border with Azerbaijan … its defence minister said …. Ethnic Armenian[s] … in … Nagorno-Karabakh … ceded … territory in and around the enclave to Azerbaijan in a six-week conflict in 2020 … that claimed thousands of […]

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Biden Administration Set to Challenge Russia Across the Southern Caucasus, Sitnikov Says

File Photo of Tbilisi, Georgia and Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

… Biden, Russians will remember, pushed hard for the US to back Georgia in 2008 and has always shown more interest in the South Caucasus than any other senior American official […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia, Azerbaijan Agree to Develop War-Ravaged Nagorno-Karabakh” – Wall Street Journal/ Ann M. Simmons

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“A Russian-brokered peace deal appears to be holding but challenges over POWs and displaced people have yet to be resolved.” “… Deep-seated hostilities [reportedly] will make it tough for Armenians and Azeris to live side by side, at least in the short term …. [T]he region[] [has a] history of ethnic animosity between … largely Christian Armenians and mostly Muslim, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenian, Azerbaijani leaders in Russia for talks” – AP

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Putin … hosted … counterparts from Armenia and Azerbaijan[] [for] their first meeting since a … Nov. 10 peace deal end[ing] 44 days of hostilities in which … Azerbaijani [forces] routed Armenian forces … reclaim[ing] control over large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas. Nagorno-Karabakh … within Azerbaijan … had been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2021” – Moscow Times

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

We asked 10 experts to predict what Russia has in store for the world next year. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Pjotr Sauer – Jan. 4, 2021) Russia had to tread a fine foreign policy line in 2020. The country’s near abroad was rocked by unprecedented unrest as uprisings in Kremlin-friendly Kyrgyzstan and Belarus and war in the Caucasus challenged […]

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The Second Karabakh War and Western Strategic Thinking

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(The Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Robert M. Cutler – Jan. 5, 2021) Robert M. Cutler is a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and a Practitioner Member of the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation, the University of Waterloo The Second Karabakh War has revealed the intellectual bankruptcy of the West’s penchant for grand strategic thinking, which stereotypes […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Protesters in Armenia besiege parliament, demand PM resigns” – AP/ Avet Demourian

Yerevan

“Thousands of protesters converged on … Armenia’s [parliament building] … … push[ing] for the resignation of … prime minister [Nikol Pashinyan] over his handling of the fighting with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. … Armenia’s opposition parties gave Pashinyan an ultimatum to resign … [H]e has ignored the demand, defending the peace deal as … bitter but necessary …. 44 days of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nagorno-Karabakh conflict killed 5,000 soldiers” – BBC

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Azerbaijan made significant territorial gains but gave no casualty numbers, while Armenia said last month it had counted 2,425 dead soldiers. Now Azerbaijan says 2,783 of its forces died in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and another 100 are missing in action. It brings to over 5,000 the number of soldiers confirmed to have died. At least 143 civilians were also […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Urges Post-Soviet Allies to Support Embattled Armenian PM” – Moscow Times

Armenia Map and Flag

… Putin has urged fellow members of a post-Soviet military bloc to support Armenia’s prime minister as he grapples with domestic pressure over … a Moscow-brokered peace deal with Azerbaijan […]

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Armenians See Russia As ‘Savior’ Not ‘Scapegoat’ In Nagorno-Karabakh War

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Ron Synovitz – Nov. 24, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/armenians-see-russia-as-savior-not-scapegoat-in-nagorno-karabakh-war/30966988.html) As war raged this autumn over Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, some Armenians expressed a sense of betrayal that long-standing ally Russia wasn’t providing more support to ethnic Armenian fighters in the conflict. But any […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Peace, for now; A peace deal ends a bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh; Azerbaijan wins some land, while Turkey and Russia carve out spheres of influence” – The Economist

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“Brokered by Russia and Turkey …. [t]he peace deal marks one of the biggest shake-ups in a turbulent region at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East since the collapse of the Soviet empire, which also began in Nagorno-Karabakh. … [A]fter 25 years of waiting for the return of its territory, Azerbaijan went back to war. … aided […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Caucasus ceasefire cements Turkey as a power in Russia’s backyard; Azerbaijan-Armenia truce underlines new regional balance between Moscow and Ankara” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy, Laura Pitel

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… a six-week-long conflict with Armenia over … Nagorno-Karabakh … resulted in major gains for Azerbaijan and its Turkish-backed military …. A truce … freezes the conflict … includ[ing] agreements that [Russian ally] Armenia … must hand over additional land …. While the truce was brokered by Moscow — which has deployed [nearly 2,000] peacekeepers — … Azerbaijan’s success with […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia ‘Open’ to Return of Armenia-Held Land to Azerbaijan – Putin” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Oct. 30, 2020) Russia is open to Azerbaijan reclaiming seven areas surrounding the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenia has controlled for 26 years, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday. Azerbaijani forces have been making gains against Armenian separatist fighters since the heaviest fighting since a 1994 ceasefire over the South Caucasus region erupted last month. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/ Paul Stronski

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“With the United States shrugging off its erstwhile role as the world’s policeman, can anyone stop the fierce fighting now raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan?” “… The long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, … dat[ing] to the waning days of the Soviet Union, is not going to trigger a global war[] [n]or … affect … [great power] vital interests […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Reported death toll in Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes about 600” – AP

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“The reported death toll in clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over … Nagorno-Karabakh has reached about 600 … [F]ighting continues despite a cease-fire …. More than two weeks of deadly clashes marked the biggest escalation of a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh … in Azerbaijan but … under control of ethnic Armenian[s] … backed by Armenia since the end of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Loses His Footing in Russia’s Backyard” – Wall Street Journal/ Thomas Grove

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“Washington has watched Russia expand its global influence, but along its borders, Moscow is losing its monopoly on power.” “… Putin has long tried to strengthen economic and defense relations across Eastern Europe and Central Asia …. Russia still has military bases in Central Asia and the South Caucasus … [T]here are strong commercial and cultural ties …. But … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Security Guarantees for Armenia Don’t Extend to Karabakh, Putin Says” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

Russia’s commitments to Armenia as part of a Moscow-led regional security bloc do not include the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where fighting is raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan … Putin said […]

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Armenia-Azerbaijan War: Military Dimensions of the Conflict

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Michael Kofman – Oct. 2, 2020) Michael Kofman is a senior research scientist and director of the Russia Studies program at CNA. On Sept. 27, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive, resulting in fighting that spans much of the line of contact in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de facto occupied by Armenia. As of […]

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RUSSIALINK: “What Is Russia’s Role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict?” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Sept. 28, 2020) At least 39 troops and civilians have been killed over the past two days in the worst clashes between foes Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2016. Fighting between the ex-Soviet republics over a decades-long territorial dispute threatens to embroil regional players Russia and Turkey. The United States, Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. and Russia have a rare opportunity to work together on a peace deal” – Washington Post/ David Ignatius

Map of Armenia and Environs

“… Russia and the United States … are co-chairs of a group … seeking to broker a peace deal [addressing] …. the long-frozen standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan … with roots in ethnic and territorial disputes which this month became a hot war with barrages of artillery …. a rare convergence of interest between Russia and the United States, two […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia’s prime minister wins sweeping majority in election; Pashinyan set to consolidate strong mandate for revolution that swept him to power” – Financial Times/Max Seddon

Armenia Map

“Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan consolidated a strong mandate for the revolution that swept him to power this year as his party won … early parliamentary elections …. [His] My Step party garnered 70.5 per cent … [T]he majority Republican Party, whose leader he ousted, failed to clear the 5 per cent barrier to win seats. “ Pashinyan is a […]

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NEWSWATCH: “New Armenian PM Tells Putin He Wants Closer Ties With Russia” – Reuters

Armenia Map and Flag

“Armenia’s new Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power last week after a peaceful revolution, told … Putin … he favored closer political and military ties with Russia. …. Armenia won independence from Moscow in 1991, but has been hampered by its conflict with Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and has looked to Russia to guarantee its security. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Most Russians Don’t See Armenia-Style Revolution as Possible in Their Country – Poll” – Moscow Times/VTsIOM

File Photo of Revolutionaries Marching in Moscow in 1917, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – May 11, 2018) More than three-quarters of Russians surveyed by the state-run VTsIOM pollster said they do not foresee a repeat of the peaceful revolution witnessed in Armenia in the past month as being possible in their country. Protest leader Nikol Pashinyan was voted in as Armenia’s prime minister by the country’s parliament on Tuesday […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Saint Nick of Armenia: how protest leader Nikol Pashinyan ‘rescued’ Armenia and made it merry; Armenia’s intensive street mobilisation over the past month has taken many by surprise. Who is the man at the centre of these protests? [Excerpt]” – OpenDemocracy/Emil Sanamyan

Armenia Map and Flag

(opendemocracy.net – Emil Sanamyan – May 5, 2018) Based in Washington DC, Emil Sanamyan writes mostly about the South Caucasus region and its adjacent states. Recently, he has been editing the Focus on Karabakh page at the USC’s Institute of Armenian Studies and blogging about Armenian politics at Eurasianet.org. [Complete text: opendemocracy.net/od-russia/emil-sanamyan/saint-nick-of-armenia-how-nikol-pashinyan-rescued-armenia-and-made-it-merry] Four months ago, Armenian parliamentary deputy Nikol Pashinyan, […]

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NEWSWATCH: “NATO General Surprised By Lack Of ‘Visible Russian Interference’ In Armenia Crisis [Excerpt]” – RFE/RL

Armenia Map and Flag

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – PRAGUE, May 4, 2018 – also appeared at https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-general-surprised-by-lack-of-visible-russian-interference-in-armenia-s-crisis/29208187.html) “A NATO general says he’s surprised that Russia is not more openly involved in Armenia’s recent tumultuous events that led to longtime leader Serzh Sarkisian being pushed from power. General Petr Pavel, the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, told RFE/RL on […]

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NEWSLINK: “The Significance of Armenia’s ‘April Revolution’; The massive street protests forced the country’s longtime leader to resign. But what’s next for Armenia?” – The Nation/Pietro A. Shakarian

Armenia Map and Flag

“… Sargsyan has served two terms as president, since 2008, and has been involved in Armenian politics in some capacity since 1990. With the switch to a parliamentary political system (similar to that of neighboring Georgia) in 2015, the oligarchs around Sargsyan persuaded him to remain as prime minister in order to protect their interests. Earlier, in 2014, he had […]

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Armenia’s “permanent revolution”: why do the protests continue in Yerevan? With the resignation of Armenia’s prime minister, it looks as if Armenia is line for radical change. But the Armenia’s entrenched network of power is not giving up so easily.

Armenia Map and Flag

(opendemocracy.net – Mikayel Zolyan – April 25, 2018) Mikayel Zolyan is a historian and political analyst from Yerevan, Armenia. He writes here in a personal capacity. [Text with links opendemocracy.net/od-russia/mikayel-zolyan/armenia-s-permanent-revolution-why-do-protests-continue-in-yerevan] On the evening of 23 April, Armenia celebrated the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, the man who had ruled Armenia for ten years as president – and for a week as […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Armenia: Why Has Vladimir Putin Not Intervened So Far and Will He?” – Russia Matters/Simon Saradzhyan

Armenia Map and Flag

“The resignation of Armenia’s Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan after more than a week of mass protests in Russia’s backyard begs the question: Why has Moscow not intervened …? … fist-pumping demonstrators bring to mind ‘color revolutions” in the post-Soviet neighborhood that the Kremlin seems to abhor, like the ones in Georgia and Ukraine. But even genuine color revolutions (which Armenia […]

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