Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

5 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest salesman in history”—to the negotiating table, while the threat of increased U.S. assistance could prompt Russia, according to this news agency’s Feb. 14 dispatch. In the meantime, Joe Biden has rejected Putin’s Feb. 9 call to negotiate peace with Ukraine while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied a report that his boss had made a private proposal to the U.S. to freeze the conflict last year.
2. Trump’s re-election team has sent another shock wave across Europe this week by disclosing a plan to have the U.S. deny Article 5 guarantees to members of the alliance that spend less than 2% of GDP on defense, in the event of his victory in the November presidential poll. The disclosure of this plan, in which Putin sees “some logic,” has occurred less than a week after Trump claimed to have recalled how, while the U.S. president, he told the leader of a “big country” that America would encourage Russia to attack NATO members who underspend on defense. This recollection was disputed by some of Trump’s European counterparts. Nevertheless, Trump’s claim made it resoundingly clear that European members of NATO need to act urgently to defend themselves against Russia. Yet, if Russia tests NATO’s Article 5 in the next 3–5–10 years, as some government agencies of several European countries predict, Europe may fail that test. Bloomberg cited senior European officials tasked with preparing their countries for a NATO-Russia conflict as saying this week, that Europe is at least a decade away from being able to defend itself unaided.
3. The U.S. Senate has approved a $95 billion national security funding bill including $60 billion in new aid to Ukraine, but the legislation risks languishing in the House of Representatives because of opposition from Trump who wants this aid to be provided in the form of loans, according to FT and Bloomberg. Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House who is close to Trump, has signaled opposition to the bill, but also sought (unsuccessfully) talks with Biden on it. While diminished by one seat this week, the GOP’s majority in the House remains, but there are signs that quite a few Republican Congressmen may ignore Johnson’s calls to oppose the Senate bill and vote for it if it is put up for vote. “If it were to get to the floor, it would pass,” GOP Rep. Andy Biggs, said of the bill, according to FT. Enough Republicans in the House who are set to retire at the end of this year could help pull the bill across the finish line, according to Thom Tillis, Republican senator, according to FT. To put the bill for a vote against Johnson’s will, Democrats in the House need four of their Republican counterparts join them in signing a so-called discharge petition, which is a demand to force consideration of a piece of legislation on the floor, according to WP and NYT.
4. This week has seen new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Oleksandr Syrskyi formally acknowledge what has been known for weeks: the Ukrainian troops have switched from an offensive to a defensive posture. Syrskyi’s admission came as ZSU edged closer to leavingAvdiivka and as the Norwegian Intelligence Service warned that “Russia is about to gain the military upper hand” in the war. That Russian forces have gained an estimated total of 35 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile in the past month, attests to the veracity of Syrskyi’s announcement. Of ZSU’s defensive positions along the 600-mile front, it is the positions in the eastern town of Avdiivka that have been subjected to the fiercest Russian attacks in the past few weeks, prompting Syrskyi to describe the operating environment in that area as “extremely complex and intense.” As of Feb. 14, Russian forces occupied more than 15% of Avdiivka, which is a gateway to the Russian-held city of Donetsk, according to ISW. On Feb. 15, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState’s Telegram channel acknowledged on that “the enemy advanced… south of Avdiivka,” posting an updated map of combat in the area, showing parts of the town held by Russian forces. In spite of ZSU yielding territory for some time now, its chief Syrskyi insisted that Ukraine can end the war with Russia only by reaching its own borders and completely restoring territorial integrity. While on the defensive on land, Ukrainian forces scored a significant win on sea, sinking another large Russian landing ship off Crimea.
5. Russia’s has obtained a “troubling” anti-satellite weapon, but the threat is not immediate, as it “is not an active capability that’s been deployed and “we’re not talking about a weapon that can be used to … attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on earth,” according to John Kirby of the National Security Council.  Kirby’s Feb. 15 comments to AP, which came after multiple media outlets reported claims by multiple current and former American officials that Russia may be considering deployment of a nuclear weapon in space. NYT described it as a “new, space-based nuclear weapon designed to threaten America’s extensive satellite network,” while Bloomberg reported that it was “a nuclear weapon in space.” According to Space.com, however, it’s unclear whether the system — that is being reportedly developed – would deploy a nuclear explosive in space or whether it is another anti-satellite technology powered by a space-based nuclear reactor. Exploding nuclear weapons in space is not new. Both the U.S. and Soviet Russia did so in the 1960s and both have developed and launched nuclear-powered spacecraft. In addition, Russia, which has been working on anti-satellite weapons for decades, is also reportedly developing a nuclear-powered cruise missile, Burevestnik, without much success.*
   

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• China should be condemning North Korea’s “deepening cooperation” with Russia, including shipping ballistic missiles to President Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine, said Jung Pak, the U.S. senior official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)

Also See section on punitive measures below..

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian drone footage published on Feb. 9 showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war near Klishchiivka in the Bakhmut direction. (ISW, 02.10.24)
• Two years into the full-scale invasion, families of the roughly 6,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war are facing a near-total information blackout about the status of their loved ones. (WSJ, 02.13.24)
• An assessment released by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations currently estimates that as of Dec. 31, 2023, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $486 billion over the next decade, up from $411 billion estimated one year ago. (World Bank, 02.15.24)
• Penny Pritzker is looking to American commodity companies to help rebuild Ukraine’s economy as she urged Congress to pass an aid package for the war-shattered country that’s stalled in the U.S. House. The former commerce secretary, tasked by President Joe Biden with the reconstruction of the Eastern European nation, said she sees opportunities for sectors including agriculture, steel and energy. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• Tokyo will pledge $106 million in funds to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction from war damages, including areas such as demining and infrastructure, Japan’s Kyodo News reported Feb. 11. (RFE/RL, 02.11.24)
• Ukraine is considering economic reforms in order to secure funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the event that the U.S. Congress continues to block crucial aid. (ISW, 02.09.24)
• Ukraine will need nearly $9 billion over the next decade to rebuild its cultural sites and tourism industry following Russia’s invasion and war, the United Nations’ cultural agency said Feb. 13. (AP, 02.13.24)
• 22 million tons of cargo have been exported through Ukrainian corridors by more than 700 vessels. The number could be higher following modernization and development of ports and infrastructure, including auto and rail ways. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.11.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 35 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile in the past month, according to the Feb. 14, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 02.14.24)
  • Russia is gaining the advantage in the war in Ukraine, owing to its greater number of troops and arms supplied by China, North Korea and other countries, Norway’s intelligence service warned on Feb. 12. “As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, Russia is about to gain the military upper hand,” according to the Norwegian Intelligence Service’s (Etterretningstjenesten’s) latest annual threat assessment. Presenting the report along with other Norwegian security services, the head of the military intelligence unit Nils Andreas Stensones said Kyiv would need “extensive” Western military aid to turn the tide. “In this war, Russia is currently in a stronger position than it was a year ago and is in the process of gaining the advantage,” Stensones said. (MT/AFP, 02.12.24)
  • Russia will likely leverage its advantage in ammunition stockpiles this year and could occupy more Ukrainian territory if crucial aid isn’t delivered to Kyiv, according to an annual report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. The Kremlin has about three to four times more artillery than Ukrainian forces after boosting its ammunition production to as many as 4 million units last year, up from 600,000 rounds in 2022, the report said. That gap will widen, since it’s “almost certain” that Western deliveries won’t keep pace with Russia’s output. (Bloomberg, 02.13.24)
• On Feb. 9, Ukrainian actors reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against two oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne, citing its internal sources in the Ukrainian security service (SBU), reported that SBU drones struck the Ilsky and Afipsky oil refineries. (ISW, 02.09.24)
• On Feb. 10, Russian forces launched drone strikes on Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Velykyi Burluk, killing seven people, reports Kharkiv Regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov. Three children, ages seven, four and about six months, are among the dead. (Meduza, 02.10.24)
• On Feb. 10, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers relieved Oleksandr Pavliuk of his position as first deputy defense minister, citing Pavliuk’s “transition to another job,” announced Taras Melnychuk, the government’s parliamentary representative. (Meduza, 02.10.24)
• On Feb. 10, Russian forces advanced south of Kreminna amid continued positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage published on Feb. 9 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced on the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka (12 kilometers south of Kreminna). (ISW, 02.10.24)
• On Feb. 11, Ukraine said it destroyed most of the 45 attack drones launched by Russia overnight. The announcement comes a day after authorities announced seven were killed in a Russian attack that set a petrol station ablaze in Ukraine’s second-biggest city, Kharkiv. “Overnight the occupiers launched 45 attack drones… As a result of combat work, 40 enemy Shahed (UAV) were destroyed,” the Ukrainian Air Force said on Telegram. (MT/AFP, 02.11.24)
• On Feb. 12, Russia’s military launched another drone attack on Ukraine overnight, with the Ukrainian Air Force reporting that air defense systems had destroyed 14 out of 17 drones as well as one Kh-59 cruise missile. (RFE/RL, 02.12.24)
• On Feb. 13, Russian strikes killed five people across Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said. The governor of northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Oleh Syniehubov, said three people were killed in his region, which borders Russia and has seen increased attacks in recent months. Syniehubov said a 61-year-old woman was killed when Russian forces shelled the city of Vovchansk, which lies around four kilometers from the border with Russia. (MT/AFP, 02.13.24)
• In an interview with ZDF published on Feb. 13, new commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces (ZSU) Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian troops have switched from an offensive to defensive posture and aim to exhaust advancing Russian forces. “I would rather leave some positions, but I will not allow personnel to die,” he said. Syrskyi told ZDF Ukraine can end the war with Russia only by reaching its own borders and completely restoring territorial integrity. “Everything is based on the fact that we must end the war by reaching our borders. No other options are being considered, because we simply have no other choice. This is the first thing,” Syrskyi noted. Also, as the commander-in-chief noted, it is necessary to improve tactics. The main value is the life of a Ukrainian soldier, he said.  (NYT, 02.14.24, Kyiv Independent, 02.14.24, RBC.ua, 02.13.24)
  • Since the beginning of 2024, about 31 billion hryvnia have been allocated for the construction of defensive lines. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal announced this on Telegram following a working trip to the Donetsk region on Feb. 13. (Korrespondent.net, 02.13.24)
• On Feb. 14, Syrskyi warned that the situation on the front line has become extremely difficult as Russia pours in additional troops and equipment after months trying to capture the eastern Ukrainian strongholds of Avdiyivka and Kupyansk. “The operating environment is extremely complex and intense. Russian occupiers continue to step up their efforts and have a large advantage in personnel numbers,” Syrskiy wrote on Facebook on Feb. 14, a day after visiting the front line together with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The same day ZSU dispatched reinforcements to Avdiivka, the loss of which would make it harder for Ukraine to eventually recapture Donetsk. The battle for the industrial town 20 kilometers north of Donetsk has intensified, with Russian troops last week breaking through Ukrainian defenses on the northern and southern edges. ISW can confirm that Russian forces currently occupy at least 15.4% of Avdiivka as of Feb. 14. On Feb. 15, Pro-war Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian forces had made gains in the area of Avdiivka’s Industrial’nyy Prospekt, but warned that Ukrainian defenses in the city have not collapsed and that supplies can still be delivered by Ukrainian forces to their positions in the city. Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState’s Telegram channel said on Feb. 15 that “The enemy advanced east of Lastochkino and south of Avdiyivka,” posting an updated map of combat in the area to back its assessment. (RM, 02.15.24, Bloomberg, 02.14.24, Bloomberg, 02.14.24, RFE/RL, 02.14.24, FT, 02.15.24, FT, 02.15.24, ISW, 02.14.24)
  • On Feb. 15 American journalist Laura Rozen quoted NSC’s John Kirby as saying: Unfortunately, we’re getting reports from the Ukrainians that the situation is critical … Avdiyivka at risk of falling into Russian control. In very large part this is happening because the Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition. (RM, 02.15.24)
  • WP ran a story on Feb. 15, entitled “Ukraine on verge of losing Avdiivka, strategic city long targeted by Russia” While a full withdrawal from Avdiivka now seems likely, when Post journalists visited last week, fresh forces from assault brigades were being rotated in to help fend off the Russian attacks and continue Avdiivka’s defense, according to WP. (RM, 02.15.24)
  • It has been earlier reported that the 3^rd Assault Brigade, which is the only Ukrainian ground-combat brigade that was in reserve in eastern Ukraine as of last week, was among those sent to Avdiivka, which is a gateway to nearby Donetsk, according to Forbes.com. A spokesman for the brigade said on Telegram on Feb. 15 that the situation in Avdiivka had been “absolutely critical” before they were sent in as reinforcements and that Ukrainian troops were pushing back newly arrived Russian units “at 360 degrees.” (RM,  02.12.24, FT, 02.15.24)
  • Prior to the emergence of news of the arrival of the third brigade in Avdiivka, Frontelligence Insight, an open source intelligence group with extensive links to the Ukrainian military, had estimated that the fall of Avdiivka was “not a matter of if, but when.” The Centre for Defence Strategies, a think-tank in Kyiv, said that Russia was close to capturing the town and that Ukrainian forces were facing an “increased encirclement threat.” (FT, 02.15.24)
  • Ukraine’s struggles in Avdiivka show why the loss of U.S. funds would be a massive blow. Forces here are already running low on artillery and other ammunition. One battery is down to nine rounds of one particular caliber. Oleksander Kucheriavenko, who serves in the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, says his unit should be using about 1,000 Mk 19 grenade rounds a week but often ends up using 100 to 200. (WSJ, 02.14.24)
• On Feb. 14, Ukraine’s military said it destroyed a Russian warship off the south coast of Crimea. Ukrainian military intelligence said a special unit sank the Caesar Kunikov, a Russian large landing ship off Alupka in occupied Crimea. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
  • Pro-Russian Telegram channels claim that the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor Sokolov, was dismissed after the sinking. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.15.24)
• On Feb. 14, Russian shelling killed at least three people, including a child, and wounded 12 others in the city of Selydove in the eastern Donetsk region, the local council reported, adding that four of the wounded were also children. Local authorities said nine apartment blocks and the city hospital were also damaged during the shelling. Russia in recent weeks has stepped up its shelling and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian settlements and infrastructure, causing numerous victims and damage. (RFE/RL, 02.14.24)
• On Feb. 15, Oleh Synyehubov, the governor of Ukraine’s eastern region of Kharkiv, said that the number of people killed in an overnight Russian missile strike on the village of Velikiy Burluk near the Russian border has risen to five, after the body of a 27-year-old woman was pulled from under the rubble. (RFE/RL, 02.15.24)
• On Feb. 15, at least five people were killed and 18 injured in what Russia says was a Ukrainian missile strike on the city of Belgorod near their shared border. Russia’s Defense Ministry separately said 14 missiles from a multiple-rocket launcher were intercepted over the Belgorod region. (Bloomberg, 02.15.24)
• On Feb. 15, drones struck an oil depot in Russia’s Kursk region, causing three fuel tanks to catch fire, reported Roman Starovoit, the region’s governor. (Meduza, 02.15.24)
• Russian forces have been purchasing satellite internet terminals made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX in Arab countries and using them at the front line, according to Ukrainian officials, potentially undercutting a major battlefield advantage for Kyiv’s army. (WSJ, 02.13.24)
• American officials assess that, without replenishment, Ukraine has enough air defenses to last until only next month. By next month, Ukraine could struggle to conduct local counterattacks, and by early summer, its military might have difficulty rebuffing Russian assaults, the officials and analysts say. (NYT, 02.10.24)
• Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies making unmanned aerial vehicles that can reach Moscow and St Petersburg, Ukraine’s digital minister Mykhaylo Fedorov said. “The category of long-range kamikaze drones is growing, with a range of 300, 500, 700 and 1,000 kilometers. Two years ago, this category did not exist … at all,” he told Reuters. (Reuters, 02.12.24)
• The bill on mobilization has passed a first reading in Ukraine’s Parliament. It would lower the conscription age to 25 from 27 and stiffen penalties on draft dodgers. Ukraine currently drafts men between the ages of 27 and 60. Under martial law, all men 18 to 60 are prohibited from leaving the country, lest a decision be taken to draft them. The bill in Parliament also allows for the demobilization of troops after three years of service, holding out the prospect of a reprieve about a year from now for soldiers who have been fighting since the invasion in 2022. The law is expected to pass this month and take effect in March, Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a member of the opposition Holos party, wrote on Telegram. (NYT, 02.13.24)
• Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks in Ukraine – the equivalent of its entire pre-war active inventory – but has enough lower-quality armored vehicles in storage for years of replacements, IISS said, presenting Military Balance 2024. Henry Boyd, the institute’s senior fellow for military capability, said Russia had been roughly “breaking even” in terms of replacements. He estimated that it had put around 1,000 to 1,500 more tanks into service in the past year. But of these, he said, 200 at most were newly built, and the large majority were refurbished older models. (Reuters, 02.13.24)
• Ukraine said it had evidence that Russia had used a new hypersonic cruise missile for the first time. A preliminary analysis of missile fragments by the government-run Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise concluded that a 3M22 Zircon missile had been used in a Feb. 7 attack that targeted cities across Ukraine. The use of a Zircon would be a new step in Russia’s air campaign against Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure. Should Russia’s earlier description of the missile’s capabilities prove correct, experts say, it could evade powerful missile defenses such as the U.S.-designed Patriot system. (NYT, 02.14.24)
• Russia is facing pressure on its weapons stocks, having, for instance, run down its pre-war stock of Raduga Kh-101 (RS-AS-23A Kodiak) conventionally armed long-range land-attack missiles. A serial number, if genuine, stenciled on the side of a recently used Kh-101 suggests it was manufactured only in the fourth quarter of 2023. (The Economist, 02.07.24)
• RUSI reported on Feb. 13 that the Russian military continues to grow despite taking significant casualties in Ukraine and that Russian military recruiters are currently meeting almost 85% of their quotas for contract recruits. (ISW, 02.14.24)
• CNN claims that Russia has recruited up to 15,000 Nepalese for the war with Ukraine. Border service data does not confirm this. According to the FSB, however, a little more than 1,000 tourists from Nepal entered Russia in 2023. (Istories, 02.12.24)
• The Pentagon puts the Russian death toll at about 60,000, with the wounded three or four times that, totaling roughly 300,000 casualties, said a U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity. (NYT, 02.15.24)
• Ukraine’s central bank expects the country’s war with Russia to end next year, according to Deputy Gov. Sergiy Nikolaychuk. Nikolaychuk told POLITICO his working assumption was that the “security risk will subside and our defense needs will diminish” from 2025, although he didn’t speculate as to how the conflict might cease. (Politico, 02.08.24)
• Elon Musk told U.S. Republican senators “there is no way in hell” that Putin could lose the war on Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.13.24)
• Upon appointing Syrskyi the new commander-in-chief, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has:
  • appointed Maj. Gen. Anatoliy Barhylevych as Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, replacing Lt. Gen. Serhiy Shaptala.
  • appointed Ihor Plahuta as the new commander of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces instead of Barhylevych.
  • appointed Col. Vadym Sukharevskyi as the Deputy Commander-in-Chief responsible for unmanned systems and Col. Andriy Lebedenko as the Deputy Commander-in-Chief responsible for innovation.
  • appointed Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Horbatiuk as the Deputy Chief of the General Staff responsible for operations, planning, and management.
  • appointed Brig. Gen. Oleksii Shevchenko as the Deputy Chief of the General Staff responsible for logistics.
  • appointed Brig. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi as the Deputy Chief of the General Staff responsible for training.
  • appointed Brig. Gen. Ihor Skybyuk as Air Assault Forces Commander replacing Maj. Gen. Maksym Myrhorodskyi.
  • fired Sergei Naev from the post of commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, replacing him with Lt. Gen. Yuri Sodol. (Korrespondent.net, 02.11.24, ISW, 02.10.24, Meduza, 02.11.24. ISW, 02.11.24)
• Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a survey of Ukrainians on Feb. 5-10, 2024. According to the survey, 40% formally trust new commander-in-chief Syrskyi, 21% do not trust him and 4% are uncertain. Also 94% trust former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and only 5% do not trust him. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.15.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• On Feb. 13, the U.S. Senate approved a $95 billion national security funding bill including $60 billion in new aid to Ukraine, but the legislation risks languishing in the House of Representatives because of opposition from former U.S. President Donald Trump. A total of 70 senators backed the legislation — which includes aid for Israel, Gaza and Taiwan — in its final vote early on Feb. 13, while 29 opposed it. The legislation has no chance of advancing in the U.S. House anytime soon. (FT, 02.13.24, Bloomberg, 02.13.24)
  •  Biden released a statement urging the House, which is controlled by Republicans, “to move on this with urgency.” “There are those who say American leadership and our alliances and partnerships with countries around the world do not matter. They do. If we do not stand against tyrants who seek to conquer or carve up their neighbors’ territory, the consequences for America’s national security will be significant,” Biden said. (FT, 02.13.24)
• Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House who is close to Trump, poured cold water on the prospects for the bill on Feb. 12, saying the lower chamber would “work its own will” and “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” Trump was yet to weigh in on the new Senate-passed bill as of Feb. 14 afternoon. (FT, 02.14.24, FT, 02.13.24)
  • The White House dismissed Johnson’s demand for direct talks with Biden to resolve an impasse over border security and Ukraine aid. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
  • There are efforts underway to go around Johnson and pass the bill through a Democratic-led discharge petition. Democrats need to gather at least four signatures from Republicans supportive of Ukraine funding to be able to introduce the petition, which probably wouldn’t happen until the end of the month given the congressional calendar. Its path would still be tricky in the House, given that some Democrats have objected to the Israeli government’s handling of the war in Gaza. Bringing the legislation to the floor through a discharge petition — which requires 218 members to support it — would avoid Johnson having his fingerprints on the proposal amid calls by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and others to remove him as speaker if he puts a Ukraine funding bill on the House floor for a vote. (WP, 02.13.24)
  • In a radio interview on Feb. 13, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus who opposes more aid for Ukraine, acknowledged that the bill would win a majority in the chamber. “If it were to get to the floor, it would pass,” Biggs said. “Let’s just be frank about that.” (FT, 02.14.24)
  • Sen. Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, suggested that enough Republicans in the House who are set to retire at the end of this year could help pull the bill across the finish line. (NYT, 02.13.24)
  • Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.) called the bill “the middle finger to every working man and woman in America.” He said that it tells Americans, “We don’t care about you. We care more about Ukraine than we care about our southern border.” (WSJ, 02.13.24)
  • In a video and statement on social media, Zelenskyy thanked senators for their support, which “helps to save human lives from Russian terror.” He said he expected a “positive decision” from the House. (WSJ, 02.13.24)
• Trump pushed for providing Ukraine aid as a loan as efforts to approve further assistance remain deadlocked in Congress amid a domestic fight over immigration and border policy. “They want to give them $60 billion more,” Trump said Feb. 14 at a rally in North Charleston, as he campaigned before South Carolina’s Feb. 24 Republican presidential primary. “Do it this way. Loan them the money. If they can make it, they pay us back. If they can’t make it, they don’t have to pay us back.” (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
  • Trump and top advisers have spoken with former Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard about foreign policy and how the Defense Department should be run in a second Trump term, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks with Gabbard — who has staked out a role as an outspoken critic of aid to Ukraine— are part of a broader conversation about how Trump would manage the Pentagon differently if voters award him a second term. (WP, 02.15.24)
  • Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican senator, has embraced a proposal floated on social media by Trump to deliver loans instead of grants to its allies, including Ukraine. (NYT, 02.13.24, FT, 02.13.24)
• Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used a meeting at the Oval Office on Feb. 9 to pressure Congress to pass billions more in aid for Ukraine, as legislative dysfunction and opposition among some Republicans have left the critical package in limbo. ”The failure of the United States Congress, if it occurs, not to support Ukraine is close to criminal neglect,” Biden said. ”It is outrageous.” (NYT, 02.10.24)
• On Feb. 13, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, opened a meeting of the Rammstein group to vow that “Ukraine will not surrender and neither will we.” He vowed that the U.S. still stands “foursquare with Ukraine,” but made no mention of the fight in Congress that has stalled delivery of more U.S. weapons. ”We will continue to dig deep to provide Ukraine with both short-term and long-term support,” said Mr. Austin (Bloomberg, 02.14.24, NYT, 02.15.24)
• NATO defense ministers met in Brussels on Feb. 15 to discuss continued military aid for war-wracked Ukraine. Ahead of the talks, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed hope the United States will continue to support Ukraine as a $95.34 billion military aid package that includes $61 billion for Kyiv and was approved by the U.S. Senate still has to clear the hurdle of a vote in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. (RFE/RL, 02.15.24)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Syrskyi held talks with Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli. “We discussed our military plans for 2024. The Commander-in-Chief expressed priorities. Among them are optimizing the structure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, improving the quality of our military training, understaffing existing brigades and creating new ones, meeting regular needs for weapons and equipment,” Umerov said. (The New Voice of Ukraine, 02.14.24, Pravda.com.ua, 02.13.24)
• Canada is giving Ukraine C$60 million ($44 million) to support F-16 fighter aircraft. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron urged U.S. legislators to approve a package of aid for Ukraine, saying “it’s a matter of global security.” (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• On Feb. 16, Zelenskyy will visit Germany and France for negotiations with Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. And on Feb. 17, the President of Ukraine will speak on the main stage of the Munich Security Conference, and will also hold a number of bilateral meetings on its sidelines. In Berlin, Scholz and Zelenskyy will sign a bilateral agreement on Germany’s long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, according to officials familiar with the discussions. (Bloomberg, 02.15.24, Korrespondent.net, 02.15.24, Bloomberg, 02.15.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Hungary has blocked the approval of the latest package of EU sanctions against Moscow, this time not because of opposition to measures targeting Russia — but China, officials say. The EU is aiming to get its 13th package of sanctions against the Kremlin over the line by the two-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in nine days’ time. (FT, 02.15.24)
• Brussels is proposing to impose sanctions on three Chinese companies and one Indian business as part of its latest measures to damage Russia’s war machine. If member states approve the plan, it would be the first time businesses in mainland China and India have been hit by EU sanctions. The companies, along with one in Hong Kong, are among 21 newly listed entities in a European Commission document. The sanctions package, expected to be approved ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, will be the 13th the EU has passed. (FT, 02.12.24)
• The European Union has proposed sanctions on North Korea for providing Russia with missiles used against Ukraine. The bloc has proposed listing North Korea’s defense minister and the Missile General Bureau, the government body that oversees the nation’s ballistic missile program. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• Euroclear has warned that a G-7 plan to use Russia’s frozen assets as a backstop to issue debt for Ukraine would pose financial stability risks to Europe. In an interview with the Financial Times, Lieve Mostrey, chief executive of the Brussels-based central securities depository, said the mooted plan would come “pretty close to an indirect seizing” of the assets and expose the company to legal claims. Euroclear holds about €191 billion belonging to the Russian central bank, the bulk of the €260 billion in sovereign assets. (FT, 02.15.24)
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she discussed the potential seizure of Russian assets with European leaders in recent days but had no progress to report on convincing key skeptics of the plan to move ahead. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
  • Estonia is pushing the European Union to seize more than €150 billion ($162 billion) of frozen Russian assets before the end of the year in an effort to lock in lasting policies that stretch beyond the U.S. election cycle. (Bloomberg, 02.13.24)
• Siemens is closing its business in Russia, according to its final financial report for 2023, which declared it impossible to continue working in the country and announced a voluntary liquidation. Systems LLC, the Russian subsidiary of Siemens, last year had revenue of about 279 million rubles ($3 million) compared to 6.3 billion a year earlier. (RFE/RL, 02.12.24)
• The German automaker Daimler Truck has sold its 15% stake in the largest Russian truck manufacturer KamAZ. Thus, the Russian automotive industry has lost its last major foreign partner. (Korrespondent.net, 02.15.24)
• Boris Schucht, chief executive of Urenco, said a U.S. bill proposing to ban uranium imports from Russia would boost a multibillion-dollar effort by western nations to strengthen their nuclear supply chains by providing long-term certainty to market participants. (FT, 02.11.24)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Feb. 12 that it added 18 British citizens, including top defense officials and leading Russia experts, to its sanctions list for “demonizing” Russia and supporting “the regime” of Zelenskyy in Ukraine. (Current Time, 02.12.24)
• Russia has put the prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, on a wanted list, the first time the Kremlin has sought criminal charges against a foreign leader since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago. Kallas is listed as wanted in the Russian interior ministry’s database of suspects, independent news site Mediazona reported on Feb. 13, alongside other Baltic politicians critical of the Kremlin and its war, including Lithuania’s culture minister and dozens of lawmakers in Latvia. Almost 400 foreigners are wanted in Russia for fighting for Ukraine in the war. (FT, 02.13.24)
  • The three Baltic nations have taken diplomatic steps to protest against Russia on Feb. 14 a day after Moscow confirmed senior lawmakers and officials from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were placed on Russia’s “wanted list” for destroying Soviet-era monuments. (RFE/RL, 02.14.24)
• Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is throwing her support behind legislation that would let the U.S. seize sovereign Russian assets to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, as she steps up her foreign-policy attacks on Trump. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• In federal court in Brooklyn, Kristina Puzyreva pleaded guilty to money laundering conspiracy for her role in a multimillion-dollar scheme to send components used in unnamed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and guided missile systems and other weapons to sanctioned entities in Russia. (Justice.gov, 02.15.24)
• Swiss prosecutors say they have a number of preliminary investigations underway into suspected cases of Russian sanctions evasion, including cases of two commodity trading companies suspected of violating the sanctions imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Bloomberg, 02.15.24)
• A law that allows authorities to confiscate vehicles with Russian license plates came into force in Latvia on Feb. 15. (RFE/RL, 02.15.24)
• The Ukrainian Prosecutor-General’s Office said on Feb. 13 that the Anti-Corruption High Court has nationalized assets in Ukraine belonging to Russian oligarch and former lawmaker Ivan Savvidi. (Current Time, 02.13.24)
• The U.S.-based refractory manufacturing company Allied Mineral Products, LLC, has been added to Ukraine’s list of “international sponsors of war” for its continued business in Russia, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) announced on Feb. 8. (Kyiv Independent, 02.08.29)
• Moscow has suspended annual payments to the Arctic Council until its work resumes in full, Russia’s Foreign Ministry told state media Feb. 14. (MT/AFP, 02.14.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• The Biden administration dismissed on Feb. 9 a call by Putin for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. ”Both we and President Zelenskyy have said numerous times that we believe this war will end through negotiations,” a National Security Council spokesman said in a statement. ”Despite Mr. Putin’s words, we have seen no actions to indicate he is interested in ending this war. If he was, he would pull back his forces and stop his ceaseless attacks on Ukraine.” (NYT, 02.10.24)
• The Kremlin on Feb. 14 denied a report by Reuters that Putin had proposed a ceasefire in Ukraine to the United States. Citing three anonymous Russian sources with knowledge of the discussions, the news agency said Putin offered to “freeze the conflict at the current lines” in 2023. The United States reportedly rejected Putin’s offer, which Reuters said came via Russia’s partners in the Middle East and others. (MT/AFP, 02.14.24)
• Donald Trump is considering a push for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war with Russia if he returns to power next year, according to people familiar with the matter. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Ukraine to the negotiating table, while the threat of increased U.S. assistance could prompt Russia. Advisers including Larry Kudlow and Robert O’Brien have also publicly pushed for tougher sanctions on Russia’s central bank to sway Putin. Trump himself said that war started by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine must end. “We’ve got to get that war settled and I’ll get it settled,” Trump said at a campaign rally Feb. 10 in Conway, South Carolina. He called Zelenskyy “the greatest salesman in history” and sought to suggest that the U.S. could be “out hundreds of billions of dollars” if Ukraine made a deal with Russia — which invaded the country two years ago — and “all of a sudden they don’t want to deal with us anymore.” (Bloomberg, 02.15.24, Bloomberg, 02.11.24)
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov claimed on Feb. 10 that the Kremlin has not seen any indications of America’s desire or political will for peace negotiations with Russia. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova similarly claimed that the prospects of dialogue between Russia and the U.S. depend entirely on American willingness to negotiate “on the basis of mutual respect.” (ISW, 02.10.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Trump is considering scaled-back commitments to some NATO members. Among possible moves in a second term, Trump allies have discussed essentially a two-tiered NATO alliance, where Article 5 — which requires common defense of any member under attack — would apply only to nations that hit defense-spending goals, according to the people, who asked not to be identified and cautioned no policy decisions have been finalized. Others are advocating new tariffs on laggard countries, they said. (Bloomberg, 02.15.24)
  • Asked about Bloomberg’s report, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels on Feb. 15: “Article 5 — the commitment that an attack on one ally will be regarded as an attack on all — is the core of NATO.” He added that “any suggestion that we’re not there to protect and defend all allies will undermine the security of all of us and put at risk our soldiers, our personnel.” “We should not pursue any path that indicates that we are trying to divide Europe from North America — the strength is that we have Europe and North America together in NATO,” Stoltenberg said ahead of a meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers. (Bloomberg, 02.15.24)
• Trump said he had warned NATO allies that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” if alliance members failed to meet defense spending targets, highlighting the risk to the military pact if he wins a new term in the White House. “One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?,'” Trump said during a rally at Coastal Carolina University. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent.’ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.” (FT, 02.11.24, WP, 02.10.24)
  • A record 18 out of NATO’s 31 countries are expected to meet the alliance’s defense spending goal this year. Stoltenberg told reporters Feb. 14 that ““We have to listen and take note of the following: the criticism that we hear [from Trump] is not primarily about NATO. It is about NATO allies not spending enough.” In Feb. 11 remarks, Stoltenberg said the alliance remained “ready and able to defend all allies” in the face of military threats. “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said. (FT, 02.14.24, Bloomberg, 02.14.24, FT, 02.11.24)
  • Biden assailed Trump for threatening to allow Russia to invade NATO allies. “For God sake, it’s dumb, it’s shameful, it’s dangerous, it’s un-American,” Biden said Feb. 13 at the White House, referring to the former president’s comments. (Bloomberg, 02.13.24)
  • In a statement, a White House spokesman, Andrew Bates, called Trump’s comments “appalling and unhinged.” (NYT, 02.10.23)
  • Trump’s comments on NATO send a “horrible message” to Putin “and to America,” Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin said. His party colleague John Fetterman blasted them as “astonishing “ and “wild.” Trump’s allies in the Senate on the other hand, defended his remarks. “I’m not worried about it at all,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican. “He’s not going to withdraw from NATO. The last thing Russia would do if Trump is president is start a war. He’s just trying to make a point.” (Bloomberg, 02.11.24)
  • “Now, we do want NATO allies to pull their weight,” Nikki Haley said. “But there are ways you can do that without sitting there and telling Russia, have your way with these countries.” Haley criticized Trump’s populist stance toward NATO. “Do we want NATO to pay more? Of course we do. But the last thing we’re going to do is side with a thug. Keep in mind, Putin kills his opponents,” Haley said. “It is a mistake for Trump to side with Putin over our allies.” (Bloomberg, 02.12.24, FT, 02.11.24)
  • Putin said on Feb. 14 that “There is probably some logic in his [Trump’s] point of view” to conditioning U.S. support for NATO allies on meeting the alliance’s target, currently at 2% of gross domestic product. “There is no logic from the Europeans’ point of view — they want the U.S. to keep carrying out some functions for free, as they have done since NATO was founded.” “If the U.S. think they don’t need [NATO] anymore, then that’s their decision,” Putin added, saying that Trump “had his own views on how U.S. relations with their allies should develop.” (FT, 02.15.24)
  • Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said on X that “reckless statements on NATO’s security and [mutual defense] solidarity serve only Putin’s interest.” (FT, 02.11.24)
  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described Trump’s remarks as a “silly idea that comes during this electoral campaign in the United States”. (FT, 02.12.24)
  • Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said Trump’s remarks were “something to maybe wake up some of the allies who haven’t done that much.” (FT, 02.12.24)
  • German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Trump’s comments were “irresponsible,” telling reporters on Feb. 12 that Trump’s remarks “even play into Russia’s hands.” He added: “No one in our alliance can have an interest in that.” (FT, 02.12.24)
    • Several European officials who interacted with Trump at multiple NATO summits said they couldn’t recall the version of events the former president and current Republican front-runner shared with a rally of supporters in South Carolina, nor that he ever went as far as saying he’d invite a Russian attack. (Bloomberg, 02.11.24)
• Senior European officials know they shouldn’t be counting on the U.S. for Europe’s defense, but building up their own military capabilities requires a determination they’re yet to prove. The continent’s efforts leave it at least a decade away from being able to defend itself unaided, according to people familiar with these preparations. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this week that Germany will meet the alliance’s spending goal this year, a target his country set after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany will spend nearly €72bn on defense this year, more than it has ever done in the history of the Bundeswehr. Some €52bn will come from the regular budget and €19.8bn from the investment fund. Experts believe the country will have to stump up an additional €25bn-€30bn a year out of the general budget to meet the 2% goal. (Bloomberg, 02.15.24, FT, 02.14.24)
• France will reach NATO’s target of spending 2% of GDP on defense in 2024, hitting the goal earlier than previously forecast, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced. In 2017, France spent €30 billion on its military but it “will eventually reach €69 billion, which allows me to confirm that France will meet the 2% target set by NATO this year,” he said. (Politico, 02.15.24)
• Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade and could be deterred by a counter build-up of armed forces, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said. “The service’s Kaupo Rosin said a military attack by Russia is “highly unlikely” in the short term, he said, partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russian buildup of forces was matched in Europe. (Reuters 02.13.24)
• Russia intends to double the number of its troops stationed along its border with the Baltic states and Finland as it prepares for a potential military conflict with NATO within the next decade, according to Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. The intelligence report said the number of troops Russia has stationed on its border with Estonia may almost double from the 19,000 that were there before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 02.13.24)
• The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, said on Feb. 13 that she does not expect the alliance to issue a membership invitation to Ukraine at its summit in Washington in July. (Reuters, 02.13.24)
• Worldwide military spending surged by 9% year on year in 2023 to hit a record $2.2 trillion as multiple conflicts ratcheted up global insecurity, according to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies released Feb. 13. While European defense spending grew 4.5% in 2023, to reach an average 1.6% of gross domestic product, Asian countries boosted their defense budgets by 4.7% to hit an average 1.8% of GDP, according to IISS’s annual Military Balance global survey. (FT, 02.15.24, WP, 02.13.24)
• The U.S. moved ahead with a $23 billion sale of F-16 warplanes, missiles and bombs to long-time ally Turkey after Ankara’s ratification of Sweden’s membership in NATO. (Bloomberg, 02.11.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• “We will develop a comprehensive strategic partnership with China as our most important task,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the State Duma. (TASS, 02.15.24)
• A unit of the Russian Pacific Fleet comprising the Varyag missile cruiser and the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate have held an air defense drill in the southern part of the South China Sea, the fleet’s press service said in a statement on Feb. 12. (Interfax, 02.15.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• The White House publicly confirmed on Feb. 15 that Russia’s has obtained a “troubling” emerging anti-satellite weapon but said it cannot directly cause “physical destruction” on Earth. “First this is not an active capability that’s been deployed and though Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety,” said John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council. “We’re not talking about a weapon that can be used to used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on earth.’’ (AP, 02.15.24, WSJ, 02.15.24)
  • Rep. Michael R. Turner, Republican of Ohio and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, called on the Biden administration to declassify the information, speaking about a “serious national security threat.” He provided no further information. U.S. media reports quoted unnamed sources as saying the issue revolves around new capabilities Russia is attempting to develop in space-based weapons.  (NYT, 02.15.24, Reuters, 02.14.24, RFE/RL, 02.15.24)
  • It’s unclear what the exact nature of the planned weapon is — that is, whether it involves detonating a nuclear explosive in space or is another anti-satellite technology powered by a space-based nuclear reactor. (Space.com, 02.15.24)
  • The United States has informed Congress and its allies in Europe of new intelligence about Russian nuclear capabilities that could pose an international threat, according to officials briefed on the matter. Officials said that the new intelligence was serious — but that the capability was still under development, and Russia had not deployed it. Consequently, it did not pose an urgent threat to the United States, Ukraine or America’s European allies, they said. A current and a former U.S. official said the new intelligence was related to Russia’s attempts to develop a space-based antisatellite nuclear weapon.. (NYT, 02.15.24, RFE/RL, 02.15.24)
• U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said he would meet Feb. 15 with the U.S. House contingent of the so-called Gang of Eight congressional leaders on the issue. Bloomberg, 02.15.24)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Feb. 15 declined to comment on the intelligence but called it a U.S. ploy to get Congress to approve aid to Ukraine. The Senate on Feb. 13 passed a $95.3 billion aid package that includes more funding for Ukraine, but the bill’s future is uncertain in the House. (WSJ, 02.15.24)
• Russians might be planning to use directed-energy weapons or electromagnetic pulses in space that could disable commercial and military networks, according to WP columnist David Ignatius. (WP, 02.15.24)
• “As things stand at the start of 2024, Russia is highly unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” according to the annual threat assessment by The Norwegian Intelligence Service or Etterretningstjenesten. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus can be seen as both posturing towards NATO and a measure to tighten control of Belarus, according to the estimate. (RM, 02.12.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Rates of attacks by Salafi-Jihadists in Russia have been steadily decreasing since at least 2018, and no Salafi-jihadist violence was recorded in 2022, according to the Russia section in “Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2024” by CSIS. (RM, 02.12.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI:

• Nation-state hackers are using artificial intelligence to refine their cyberattacks, according to a report published by Microsoft Corp. on Feb. 14. Russian, North Korean, Iranian and Chinese-backed adversaries were detected adding large-language models, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, to their toolkit, often in the preliminary stages of their hacking operations, researchers found. OpenAI said Feb. 14 it had terminated accounts associated with state-sponsored hackers. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• A report, by the Tech Transparency Project, a nonprofit focused on accountability for large technology companies, shows that X, formerly known as Twitter, has taken payments from accounts that include Hezbollah leaders, Houthi groups, and state-run media outlets in Iran and Russia. (NYT, 02.14.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia became the largest oil supplier to China and India again in December 2023, though its share in total volume of oil imports to those countries fell slightly, OPEC said in its February report. Russia ensured 20% of China’s total oil imports in December compared with 21% in the previous month, according to the report. Kpler data shows Russia with a share of 32% of India’s total crude imports in December compared with 38% in November. (TASS, 02.15.24)
• Total oil exports from Russia and Central Asia averaged 6.3 million bpd in December, up 0.4 million bpd or more than 7% compared to November, according to OPEC’s monthly report. Gains were seen in the Black Sea and Baltic countries. Compared to the same month in 2022, the decrease was about 1%. (Interfax, 02.15.24)
• A chunk of the vast fleet of tankers that Russia uses to deliver its crude oil is grinding to a halt under the weight of U.S. sanctions, a sign that tougher measures by western regulators might be starting to have tangible effects on Moscow. About half of the 50 tankers that the U.S. Treasury began sanctioning on Oct. 10 have failed to load cargoes since they were listed, according to a ship-by-ship tracking of each one by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 02.13.24)
• Germany’s potential nationalization of oil refinery assets belonging to Russia’s state energy giant Rosneft PJSC moved a step closer with neighboring country Poland pledging the supply of crude if the plan goes ahead. (Bloomberg, 02.13.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Putin praised Biden as a more reliable alternative for Russia than Trump, making his first public comments on the American presidential election. “He’s a more experienced person, he’s predictable, he’s an old-style politician,” the Russian president said of Biden. He brushed aside questions about Biden’s age and health, saying people were already talking about his “inabilities” when he met him three years ago, but he saw “nothing of the sort.”  (Bloomberg, 02.15.24, AFP, 02.15.24)
• Putin on Feb. 14 said he was grateful to controversial right-wing U.S. talk show host Tucker Carlson for his interview last week and “intermediary” role with the West. (MT/AFP, 02.14.24)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Feb. 13 that he had spoken the day before with Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine who is being detained in Russia. Blinken told a forum on hostage diplomacy that U.S. efforts to bring home Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who is also being held by Russia, continue every day. Blinken did not mention Alsu Kurmasheva, a journalist with RFE/RL who has been in Russian custody since Oct. 18. (Reuters, 02.13.24)
  • Dmitry Peskov was asked to comment on news that Blinken had spoken by phone earlier this week with Whelan. “I want to recall the words of President Putin in his recent interview that these matters love silence, and they can only be resolved in silence,” Peskov said. (WSJ, 02.14.24)
• A Moscow court on Feb. 13 sentenced a 65-year-old American man to 21 years in prison for sexually abusing his sons when they lived in the United States. (MT/AFP, 02.13.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy

• Inflation in Russia held at elevated levels in January. Annual inflation came in at 7.4% in January 2024, according to data from the state-run Rosstat statistics agency published on Feb. 14. (MT/AFP, 02.14.24)
• Some 3,600 politically motivated criminal cases have been opened in Russia since 2012, according to the OVD-info database. (Istories, 02.15.24)
• On Feb. 14, Putin signed a law amending provisions on property confiscation in Russia’s Criminal Code.  The amendments allow for money, valuables, or other property obtained in the commission of crimes such as spreading “fake news” about the Russian army (Article 207.3 of the Criminal Code) or publicly calling for actions against the security of the state (Article 280.4 of the Criminal Code) to be confiscated into state ownership. (Meduza, 02.14.24)
• An appellate military court has reviewed the verdict in a “justifying terrorism” case against Russian sociologist Boris Kagarlitsky and upped his sentence to five years in prison, report RIA Novosti and TASS. In December, a military court fined Kagarlitsky 600,000 rubles ($6,570) and banned him from administering websites for two years. The prosecution appealed the verdict, saying it was “unjust due to its excessive leniency.” (Meduza, 02.13.24)
• The press secretary of imprisoned Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny said on Feb. 14 that the outspoken Kremlin critic was again placed in a punitive solitary confinement cell for unspecified reasons just three days after he served a previous 10-day solitary confinement term. (RFE/RL, 02.14.24)
• Putin’s campaign headquarters has officially informed Russia’s Central Election Commission that he will not participate in pre-election debates, reports TASS. (Meduza, 02.13.24)
• Russia’s Supreme Court on Feb. 15 rejected an appeal filed by anti-war presidential hopeful Boris Nadezhdin against a decision by election officials not to register him for next month’s election. (RFE/RL, 02.15.24)
• A Russian court again refused to transfer to a less restrictive psychiatric clinic a Yakut shaman who became known across the country in 2019 for his attempts to march to Moscow to drive Putin out of the Kremlin. Aleksandr Gabyshev’s lawyer, Alexei Pryanishnikov, said on Feb. 12 that it was the fourth such rejection. (RFE/RL, 02.12.24)
• Russian art critic Nina Moleva has died at age 98, bequeathing a mysterious collection of works she claimed to be worth $2 billion to Putin. (MT/AFP, 02.14.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s total military expenditure increased by almost 30% last year as the war in Ukraine ground on, the IISS reported, with the Kremlin now estimated to be spending roughly 7.5% of its GDP on the military. Russia’s total military expenditure was estimated at $108 billion in 2023, more than three times the expenditure by Ukraine ($31 billion).  (WP, 02.13.24)
• Russia on Feb. 15 launched a supply rocket to the International Space Station, one of the rare Russia-U.S. projects kept alive since Russia’s offensive against Ukraine. A Soyuz-2 rocket carrying the Progress MS-26 cargo ship was launched at the Baikonur space center in Kazakhstan, Russia’s space agency said on its Telegram channel, showing a video of the lift-off. The rocket was due to arrive at the ISS on Feb. 17, the agency added. (MT/AFP, 02.15.24)

See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Officials from Russia’s state civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia have been accused of de-registering aircraft that were later used by the Ukrainian military, the pro-Kremlin tabloid Izvestia reported Feb. 12, citing anonymous law enforcement and Transportation Ministry sources. A Transport Ministry inspection in July revealed that 59 planes and helicopters had been illegally removed from Russia’s civil aircraft register between March 2022 and June 2023, according to the publication. Izvestia said 36 of the aircraft had been sold abroad, eight of which ended up in countries deemed “unfriendly” by Moscow. (MT/AFP, 02.12.24)
• Three former employees of Russian media influencer Ksenia Sobchak were sentenced to at least seven years in prison for trying to extort money from the head of state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec. (MT/AFP, 02.12.24)
• A Russian court on Feb. 14 sentenced a 67-year-old woman to 10 years in prison for setting a fire at a military recruitment center in St. Petersburg. (RFE/RL, 02.14.24)
• A court in Finland has jailed a Russian nationalist fighter Yan Petrovsky for violating EU sanctions by entering the country under an alias, the Finnish broadcaster Yle reported Feb. 13. Petrovsky was detained in July on separate charges of committing terrorism in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.13.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• On Feb. 12th Viginum, the French foreign-disinformation watchdog, announced it had detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland and other European countries, tied in part to the second anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the elections to the European Parliament in June. Viginum said it had uncovered a Russian network of 193 websites which it codenames “Portal Kombat.” (The Economist, 02.12.24)
• Russian exports to Europe dropped by more than two-thirds in 2023, as the EU drastically cut its purchases of Russian oil and gas, Russia’s customs agency said Feb. 12. EU countries halted the vast majority of their energy purchases from Russia in a bid to exert economic pressure on Moscow over its military offensive against Ukraine. Russian exports to Europe dropped 68% in 2023 to $84.9 billion, according to the state-run Interfax news agency, which cited Russia’s federal customs agency. (MT/AFP, 02.12.24)
• Finland’s President-elect Alexander Stubb said Feb. 12 his country will not maintain high-level ties with Russia until the Kremlin ends its war in Ukraine. Relations between Moscow and Helsinki have sharply deteriorated since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, prompting Finland to drop decades of military non-alignment and join NATO. “We do not have a political relationship right now with Russia,” Stubb said, adding that “practical” Russian-Finnish relations, such as contact between diplomats and border services, remained. (MT/AFP, 02.12.24)
• In a semi-secret courtroom, a three-judge tribunal this week heard testimony about an alleged Russian spy who may have burrowed deep into Britain’s top intelligence agencies, gaining access to secret documents and meeting with prime ministers and British royalty when they traveled to Afghanistan. The British security services allege that the man, who may only be identified as “C2” and whose name is redacted in publicly available court documents, probably served as a spy for Russia’s military intelligence agency, known as GRU. He arrived in the United Kingdom in 2000 as an Afghan refugee claiming asylum. C2, who held multiple roles in the British government, is not charged criminally but is in court seeking to restore his British citizenship, which was revoked in 2019. (WP, 02.10.24)
• In 2023, Russian diplomatic missions and consular offices abroad issued 840,000 “traditional” paper visas, which is significantly more than in 2022 (510,000 visas), according to RF MA’s consular service. In addition, in the first five months after the launch of the unified electronic visa project in August 2023, 170,000 electronic documents were issued. (MID.ru, 02.12.24)

Ukraine:

• In the first month of 2024, the Ukrainian economy, according to preliminary data, grew by 3.5% compared to January 2023. This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Economy. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.13.24)
• Farmers from across Bulgaria blocked two main thoroughfares in the capital, Sofia, on Feb. 13, pouring milk onto the streets as they demanded the resignation of Agriculture Minister Kiril Vatev, increased subsidies, and changes to a deal on compensation for the impact of Ukrainian imports flooding the market. (RFE/RL, 02.13.24)
• Russia is relying on thousands of often-unwittingly recruited workers from neighboring countries to undertake the sprawling multi-billion-dollar reconstruction in the occupied territories of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• A 17-year-old Ukrainian basketball player was fatally stabbed after an altercation at a bus stop in Germany, police said on Feb. 12, in a case that has sparked outrage in Kyiv. (AFP, 02.12.24)
• A 71-year-old Ukrainian citizen who was accused by Russian authorities of espionage and participation in a terrorist organization has died in pretrial detention in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the Memorial human rights monitor said on Feb. 11. (Current Time, 02.11.24)
• The National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office exposed the embezzlement of 15.2 million hryvnia during the purchase of food products for humanitarian needs by authorities in Kharkiv region. (RBC.ua, 02.13.24)
• Former Ukrainian lawmaker Serhii Pashynskyi and five other individuals were charged for allegedly illegally appropriating almost 100,000 tons of state-owned oil in 2014, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on Feb. 12. (Kyiv Independent, 02.15.24)
• Officials from Ukraine’s State Labor Service have been apprehended for allegedly demanding a bribe of half a million hryvnias ($13,300) to avoid conducting an unscheduled inspection of a business, the Prosecutor General Office reported on Telegram on Feb. 9. (New Voice of Ukraine,. 02.09.24)
• An appeals court in the southeastern Serbian city of Nis on Feb. 14 overturned the verdict of a lower court that had found an ex-officer of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) guilty of money laundering and sent the case back for a retrial. Andriy Naumov, the former head of the Main Department of Internal Security of the SBU, was sentenced by a court in Nis to one year in prison for money laundering in September. (RFE/RL, 02.14.24)
• The Bureau of Economic Security told the director of the university of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine and the general director of the enterprise that they were suspected of having embezzled 2.4 million hryvnias from the budget. (Korrespondent.net, 02.14.24)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Fragments from a Russian drone that crashed into Moldova contained explosives the country’s police said, as Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi condemned Russia’s “barbaric attacks” across the border in Ukraine. Police on Feb. 12 said that 50 kilograms of explosives were discovered during an investigation of the Shahed drone parts found on Feb. 11 at a crash site near Moldova’s southern town of Etulia, close to the border with Ukraine. All of the drone components have been collected and defused, police said. Popsoi condemned Russia’s “constant barbaric attacks” against Ukraine, in a post on X. (RFE/RL, 02.12.24)
• After weeks of quiet deliberation, Moldova’s pro-European government has rejected a Russian request for polling stations in the separatist sliver of Moldovan territory between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border during voting next month to formalize Putin’s presidential reelection. (RFE/RL, 02.10.24)
• Kyrgyzstan has published the text of a letter by President Sadyr Japarov to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in which the Central Asian nation’s leader accused the United States of interfering in his country’s internal affairs. On Feb. 9, the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry said minister Jeenbek Kulubaev met with the U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Lesslie Viguerie and handed over Japarov’s response to a letter by Blinken that reportedly expressed concern over ongoing discussions by Kyrgyz lawmakers of a controversial bill that would allow authorities to register organizations as “foreign representatives.” (RFE/RL, 02.12.24)
• Four Armenian soldiers were shot dead and another one was wounded by Azerbaijani fire early on Feb. 13 at one of the southern sections of the border between the two countries, the Armenian Defense Ministry said, in the first shooting incident in months. (RFE/RL, 02.13.24)
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian declined to say whether his country would arrest Putin should he visit the Caucasus nation following Yerevan’s decision to join the International Criminal Court. (RFE/RL, 02.11.24)
• Armenian Economy Minister Vahan Kerobian resigned on Feb. 14 two weeks after one of his deputies and several other subordinates were arrested on corruption charges that he denies. (RFE/RL, 02.14.24)

IV. Quotable and notable:

• “He is sitting right there on his throne, keeping an eye on the entire plot and trying to figure out how he can manipulate and take advantage of every set of international circumstances to push forward,” said Fiona Hill, a former top White House advisor on Russia, said of Putin. “Putin can look like he’s losing colossally, but he’s actually winning — and he’ll think he’s winning.” (Bloomberg, 02.14.24)
• “He is directly related to the military conflict in Ukraine,” Anton Alikhanov, who governs the western exclave of Kaliningrad, said of the 18th-century German enlightenment philosopher Immanuel Kant. (MT/AFP, 02.12.24)

Selected data from “Lose-Lose? Munich Security Report 2024,” Munich Security Conference, February 2024.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.