JRL NEWSWATCH: “Claims That Sanctions Hurt Europe More Than Russia Are Wrong” – Foreign Policy

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“A false narrative is being peddled by the Kremlin and its Western friends.” “… Russia has never been a major market for EU firms, with Russian businesses buying just 4 percent of EU exports in 2021. [A]bout half of EU exports to Russia fall under sanctions … [so] only 2 percent of EU exports are affected …. [S]anctions do not […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 26-March 4, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s resilience to sanctions shows it is ‘costly and unattainable’ to isolate a large and globally integrated economy, economist says” – Business Insider

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russia’s economy remains resilient against Western sanctions. Economist Elina Ribakova wrote about the limitations of trying to isolate a globally integrated economy like Russia. The West’s experience sanctioning Russia could help in crafting potential future trade restrictions against China.” “Despite sweeping … sanctions over … Ukraine, Russia posted … GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Unveils Biggest Sanctions Package on Russia Since War Began” – Bloomberg

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“Drone maker, payment system are among targets of penalties Yellen says Russia’s economy showing ‘signs of weakness’” “U.S. holds off metals sanctions amid fears of economic chaos Russia’s economy still forecast to grow up to 1.5% in 2024″ “The U.S. unveiled its biggest one-day sanctions package against Russia since the [full-scale] invasion of Ukraine … targeting more than 500 people […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Frozen Russian Assets Over Ukraine War Wins Endorsement of Legal Experts” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

Letter from scholars backing seizure is circulating in G-7 ‘It would be lawful, under international law,’ 10 experts say “A group of legal experts sought to bolster the case for seizing frozen Russian central bank assets, arguing that such actions are allowed under international law given the scale of Russia’s continuing attacks in Ukraine. … The letter … is co-signed […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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UKRAINELINK: “A Long War Made Longer by the West’s Unaddressed Mistakes” – Kennan Institute: Victor Andrusiv

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv, Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration – Feb. 14, 2024) Two years of war in Ukraine is already a long time, but recent events suggest that all forecasts regarding the end of hostilities no longer apply. For the first time, in speaking of a “long war” we’re referring […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Asia’s commercial heft helps keep Russia’s war economy going; That holds future lessons for America” – The Economist

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… [M]ore than three dozen countries … slapped economic sanctions on Russia … unprecedented in … scope for a target of its size, covering energy and other commodities, finance, technology, travel, shipping and more … to raise the cost … of continuing the war [in Ukraine]. … China … has done the most to undermine the West’s sanctions. Trade between […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets – officials” – Reuters

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“The [EU] [reportedly] is unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe, despite G7 plans to discuss the legality of such a move at a meeting in February …. The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine … [including roughly] $200 billion … held […]

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Ukraine and West Can’t Count on Collapse of Russia’s Military-Industrial Sector as a Result of Sanctions, Inozemtsev Says

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel” – Financial Times

“Demand for atomic energy is surging but Moscow dominates the world’s supplies of enriched uranium.” “… Utilities companies have spent two years stockpiling nuclear fuel in case Russian supplies are disrupted. … Washington is undertaking a multibillion-dollar push to rebuild its nuclear supply chain …. More than a fifth of the fuel used by the 93 nuclear reactors in the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Grabbing $300 billion of Russian assets is no panacea, West cautions in Davos” – Reuters

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 5-12, 2024

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT  reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]

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Oil Drilling Is Booming in Russia Despite Western Sanctions

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Jan. 10, 2024) Drilling at Russia’s oil production wells likely beat a post-Soviet record in 2023, according to industry data Bloomberg has seen — evidence that the Western sanctions haven’t affected drilling rates much, especially at brownfields. Russia is estimated to have drilled oil production wells with a total depth of 28,100 kilometers (17,460 miles) […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 2-8, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]

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Russia in Review, Dec. 21, 2023-Jan. 5, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian reserves is the right thing to do” – Financial Times

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Blatant violations of international laws require a response and reparations would be in line with historical precedent.” “… [One] geopolitical flashpoint[] … may be … pressure to seize Russia’s reserves in foreign central banks to fund Ukraine. Western nations … reported[ly] … have been actively exploring the move …. rais[ing] worries about … consequences for the financial system, … that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia exports almost all its oil to China and India – Novak” – Reuters

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and U.S. Heading for Major Escalation” – Newsweek/ Isabel van Brugen

Stylized Russian and U.S. Flags, 200, 1807-2007

“Russia and the U.S. could be headed for a major escalation, according to [Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister responsible for ties with the U.S., arms control and non-proliferation.] … [Ryakkov] said … confiscation of frozen Russian assets could lead to diplomatic relations … being severed. … [R]eports emerged that the Biden administration could be close to seizing more than […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Official Reveals Drastic Punishment for Russia” – Newsweek

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“The United States seeks to cut Russia’s oil and gas revenue by 50 percent by 2030 as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine …. according to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt[,] [who said that] … Washington hopes [oil and gas] sanctions … will hinder … Putin from … future military aggression …. Kremlin has managed […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Avoid Defeat in Ukraine: For starters, step up military aid and break Putin’s global networks of influence.” – WSJ

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“The German tabloid ‘Bild’ said …. President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz … plan to force Ukraine into peace talks next year by denying it the weapons needed to win. … Team Biden is more interested in avoiding confrontation with Russia than in defeating it. To oppose aid to Ukraine is to ensure a Russian victory, but funding [] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Some EU Nations Push to Weaken Russia Sanctions Enforcement Plan” – Bloomberg

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“EU proposals include ban on re-export to Russia of key goods Proposals include penalties for breaches and fund for Ukraine” “… [EU’s] executive arm has proposed banning importers from reselling so-called high-priority items — like semiconductors used in weapons or needed to make them — to Russia or for use in Russia, and requiring a sum to be deposited in […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 9-17, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Almost No Russian Oil Sold Below G7 Price Cap – FT” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells File Photo

(Moscow Times – Nov. 14, 2023) Russia has managed to almost entirely circumvent a G7 price cap on its oil exports, with Moscow claiming average sales at more than $20 per barrel above the imposed limit, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Western officials and Russian export data. [ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad] According to an unnamed senior European official who spoke to FT, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s New Elite Emerges to Fill Void After Multinationals Flee” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“Foreign firms have sold assets worth over $21 billion Third wave of business elite swoops in to grab bargains” “A new cohort of Russian business elite has emerged to benefit from the void left when international firms suddenly exited following … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. … snapp[ing] up assets at discounted prices after … multinationals … [left due to] pressure […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s war economy leaves businesses starved of labour” – Financial Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“Busy armaments factories are depriving other industries of scarce workers” “Russia’s army and … weapons factories are sucking in a growing number of workers as Moscow braces itself for a long war … leaving civilian sectors with painful labour shortages and destabilising the … economy. … [L]abour shortages have helped expose [economic] weaknesses … contradict[ing] the [Kremlin’s] rosy picture …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Squeezed by Sanctions, Some Oligarchs Are Heading Home to Putin’s Russia” – Bloomberg

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“Putin’s war in Ukraine is leaving billionaires who sought to integrate with the West to face the reality of international isolation.” “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed everything for [certain Russian oligarchs] … who prospered under Putin until the U.S. and Europe imposed sweeping sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin leader and bringing his economy to its knees. The penalties […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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West Sanctions Russian Aviation, But Moscow Decides to Keep Planes Flying Despite Risks

Russian Plane file photo, adapted from image at ice.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Steven E. Harris – Oct. 26, 2023) Steven E. Harris is professor of modern Russian and European history at the University of Mary Washington. He is presently writing a book on the history of Aeroflot and authoritarianism in the Russian Jet Age from Stalin to Putin. When the U.S. and its allies slapped sanctions on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China’s Xi Doubles Down on Belt and Road as Path to New World Order” – WSJ

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Chinese and Russian leaders tout trillion-dollar initiative as a model for international cooperation at summit in Beijing, but Western leaders weren’t there to hear it.” “… [O]ne war raging in Ukraine … another unfolding in the Middle East …Xi Jinping is promoting his signature foreign-policy project as a force for unity, cooperation and prosperity around the globe. At a summit […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russians allowed to compete as neutral athletes at the 2024 Paralympics in Paris” – AP

Olympic Rings Lit at Night, adapted from image at state.gov

“Russians will be allowed … as neutral athletes at next year’s Paralympics in Paris … following the invasion of Ukraine. The International Paralympic Committee voted 74-65 … on Friday against suspending Russia’s membership entirely — which would have meant a full ban … then voted 90-65 in favor of ‘partially’ suspending the country through 2025. … because of ‘breaches of […]

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In Dealing With Ordinary Russians, the West’s Values Are At Stake

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Ekaterina Kotrikadze, News Director and Anchor, TV Rain (Dozhd TV) – Sept. 27, 2023) Russian citizens are facing new restrictions. European Union authorities have just prohibited them from crossing the union’s border in cars bearing Russian license plates and from carrying certain items with them. As these restrictions were being introduced, European sanctions were being […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 8-15, 2023

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to wage the financial war against Russia’s economy” – Washington Post

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“The war in Ukraine is being waged on the battlefield but also globally … [T]he latter theater might be the more decisive … the financial and commercial terrain where the West’s sanctions have been deployed … [T]he effort to subvert Russia’s economy might eventually do more to end the war than any new weapons system or fresh breakthrough along the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.” “… Russia subverted American export controls using its intelligence services and ministry of defense to run illicit networks of people who smuggle key components by exporting them to other countries from which they can be shipped to Russia more easily. … [S]ince the war […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Agricultural Bank could have SWIFT access within 30 days, UN tells Moscow” – Reuters

Wheat in Field, adapted from image at usda.gov

“A Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary in Luxembourg could immediately apply to SWIFT to ‘effectively enable access’ for the bank to the international payments system within 30 days, the United Nations told Russia in a letter …. ‘SWIFT has confirmed that RSHB Capital S.A. would be eligible to apply for membership and access to SWIFT for food and fertilizer transactions, based […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why the U.S. and Europe Still Buy Russian Nuclear Fuel” – Bloomberg

“… Kremlin-controlled Rosatom … continues to be the dominant source of fuel for the world’s nuclear power stations — supplying about half of global demand …. Western nations are racing to reconstitute their own processing capacity ….  [U]ranium ore needs … a vast industrial process …. Rosatom is … in every part of the supply chain, from ore extraction to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Booming Trade With China Helps Boost Russia’s War Effort” – WSJ

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Chinese exports to its neighbor have risen sharply, as Beijing sends everything from microchips to trench-digging excavators.” “China is playing an increasingly important role … propping up Russia’s economy and helping boost its war effort … [T]rade data show[s] Beijing providing a range of goods, including some with potential military applications such as microchips and trench-digging excavators. China has become […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Flagship Oil Above $60 Does Little to Halt G-7 Services” – Bloomberg

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… The price of Russia’s flagship oil … jump[ing] above a [G7] imposed cap … has done little to impede … western services for the trade. …. About 40% of vessels lifting crude from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports were owned by companies based in countries signed up to the cap. Before the threshold was breached, about half were […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Airlines Import $1.2Bln Worth of Western Parts Despite Sanctions – Reuters” – Moscow Times

Russian Plane file photo, adapted from image at ice.gov

(Moscow Times – Aug. 23, 2023) Russian airlines have continued to import spare parts for Western aircraft despite sanctions designed to cut off the flow of key equipment, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing customs data. Ural Airlines, Norwdind Airlines, S7, Aeroflot and others have imported $1.2 billion worth of spare parts from third parties between May 2022 and June 2023, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia will struggle to cope with a sinking rouble” – The Economist

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

“What does the currency’s collapse mean for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war?” On Aug. 14, 2023, the value of the ruble fell below 1 cent in U.S. currency, more than 100 rubles per U.S. dollar.  That was the ruble’s worst exchange value against the U.S. dollar since the immediate aftermath of the early 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. “… […]

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Russia in Review, July 14-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]

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Russia Analytical Report, July 10-17, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 26-July 5, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 12-20, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]

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