(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]
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“The war in Ukraine is being waged on the battlefield but also globally … [T]he latter theater might be the more decisive … the financial and commercial terrain where the West’s sanctions have been deployed … [T]he effort to subvert Russia’s economy might eventually do more to end the war than any new weapons system or fresh breakthrough along the […]
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“Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.” “… Russia subverted American export controls using its intelligence services and ministry of defense to run illicit networks of people who smuggle key components by exporting them to other countries from which they can be shipped to Russia more easily. … [S]ince the war […]
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“A Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary in Luxembourg could immediately apply to SWIFT to ‘effectively enable access’ for the bank to the international payments system within 30 days, the United Nations told Russia in a letter …. ‘SWIFT has confirmed that RSHB Capital S.A. would be eligible to apply for membership and access to SWIFT for food and fertilizer transactions, based […]
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7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]
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“… Kremlin-controlled Rosatom … continues to be the dominant source of fuel for the world’s nuclear power stations — supplying about half of global demand …. Western nations are racing to reconstitute their own processing capacity …. [U]ranium ore needs … a vast industrial process …. Rosatom is … in every part of the supply chain, from ore extraction to […]
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“Chinese exports to its neighbor have risen sharply, as Beijing sends everything from microchips to trench-digging excavators.” “China is playing an increasingly important role … propping up Russia’s economy and helping boost its war effort … [T]rade data show[s] Beijing providing a range of goods, including some with potential military applications such as microchips and trench-digging excavators. China has become […]
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“… The price of Russia’s flagship oil … jump[ing] above a [G7] imposed cap … has done little to impede … western services for the trade. …. About 40% of vessels lifting crude from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports were owned by companies based in countries signed up to the cap. Before the threshold was breached, about half were […]
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(Moscow Times – Aug. 23, 2023) Russian airlines have continued to import spare parts for Western aircraft despite sanctions designed to cut off the flow of key equipment, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing customs data. Ural Airlines, Norwdind Airlines, S7, Aeroflot and others have imported $1.2 billion worth of spare parts from third parties between May 2022 and June 2023, according […]
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“What does the currency’s collapse mean for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war?” On Aug. 14, 2023, the value of the ruble fell below 1 cent in U.S. currency, more than 100 rubles per U.S. dollar. That was the ruble’s worst exchange value against the U.S. dollar since the immediate aftermath of the early 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. “… […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]
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… [At this year’s Victory Day parade,] Putin was joined … by the leaders of seven other post-Soviet countries, including all five former Soviet Central Asian republics, plus Armenia and Belarus. After more than a year of severe stress, many of those countries have sought to distance themselves from embattled Moscow and find alternative avenues for trade, political connections, and […]
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(Moscow Times – June 15, 2023) Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Thursday that Russia is at risk of reverting to a planned economic system as it grapples with restructuring challenges driven by soaring war expenses and unprecedented Western sanctions. “The temptation to manage economic restructuring can lead to [a situation] where we suppress private initiative [by businesses], not […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
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“Whether Americans like it or not, this country will have little choice but to begin planning for an emerging world order.” “… Amid the seemingly never-ending catastrophe of the war in Ukraine, it’s become increasingly evident that China and India are likely to shape its final resolution. Russia can’t keep fighting without … [their] support … thanks to their refusal […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Moscow blaming West at every turn: Vladimir Putin attacked the West on May 9, claiming that Russia’s future depended on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as he attended a slimmed-down military parade to mark victory over Nazi Germany in WWII, MT reports. “A real war has once again been unleashed against our motherland,” he […]
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“Russia’s atomic-energy giant Rosatom does business around the world, including with the U.S. and allies like Turkey.” “… Rosatom State Atomiс Energy Corp.[] has expanded its global reach in recent years and is the world’s leader in constructing and operating nuclear projects abroad, working on 34 power units in 11 countries from China to Egypt to Hungary. In recent decades, […]
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“U.S. intelligence holds that Russia will be able to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, even under … unprecedented sanctions, according to leaked U.S. military documents. … While some of Russia’s economic elites might not agree with the country’s course in Ukraine, and sanctions have hurt their businesses, they are unlikely to withdraw support for … […]
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(Moscow Times – April 26, 2023) President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Tuesday authorizing temporary control over foreign companies’ Russia-based assets. The move marks Russia’s latest retaliation to the freezing of its assets abroad over the invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s decree lists the Russian divisions of the German energy giant Uniper and Finland’s Fortum whose shares had already been taken […]
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(Moscow Times – April 20, 2023) Russia’s ultra-rich have seen their wealth swell over the past year despite punishing Western sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, according to the 2023 Forbes World’s Billionaires list published late Wednesday. The overall wealth of Russian billionaires rose from $353 billion in 2022 to $505 billion this year, with the average increase […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – April 14, 2023) The latest batch of leaked top-secret U.S. intelligence assessments paint a significantly grimmer picture of Ukraine’s fighting chances than one would typically find on the editorial pages of America’s leading newspapers. The leaked documents warn that Ukraine’s anticipated spring counteroffensive will likely result in “modest territorial gains” that would fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals, […]
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“The [IMF] raised its 2023 economic growth forecast for Russia on Tuesday, predicting that deficit-fueled government spending would help counteract the growing costs of its war in Ukraine. But the Russian invasion is expected to have a significant impact over the medium term, with the IMF predicting the Russian economy would be about 7% smaller by 2027 than pre-war forecasts […]
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“Event was ‘overwhelmingly pro-Russian’, says one attendee, as bank calls clients to apologise.” “Bank of America [reporetedly] cut short an online client conference on geopolitics and apologised to attendees after some balked at what they saw as pro-Russian comments about the war in Ukraine …. The conference was designed as a two-day event beginning … Tuesday, but BofA Securities cancelled […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia’s new foreign policy concept declares “an era of revolutionary change” in the world order, but leaves the door open to normalizing relations with the West. To facilitate the formation of a “more just, multipolar world,” Russia will prioritize the “elimination of vestiges of dominance by the U.S.,” according to the new document, which replaces Russia’s […]
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“The most interesting outcome of the [Sino-Russian] summit [was] … Putin [saying], ‘We … favor … using the Chinese yuan for settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.’ … [T]he world’s second-largest economy and … largest energy exporter are actively trying to dent the dollar’s dominance … of the international financial system … [that] gives […]
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“The [EU]’s plans to seize Russian assets … prioritising state assets of around US$350 billion (S$466.5 billion), [reportedly] are unprecedented and tricky …. ‘Nothing is simple’ when it comes to finding the massive sums intended to be diverted to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction … Anders Ahnlid said …. But Europe plans to be ‘innovative’ …. Private assets are often protected […]
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“Sanctions have squeezed the economy undergirding Putin’s war in Ukraine. The West can tighten the screws more, especially on Moscow’s energy revenue.” “… [S]anctions are draining Russian state revenue and shaking the country’s financial underpinnings, gradually isolating Moscow from the global financial system. But they have not sapped [the Russian Federation’s] will or capacity to fight — or triggered the […]
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“War in Ukraine looms over Chinese leader’s visit, while the West worries about a more-powerful Russia-China axis.” “[] Xi came into the trip — the 40th meeting between the two leaders — seeking to cast himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war, even as [] Putin demonstrates his determination to carry on the fighting. … Xi’s high-profile visit […]
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“Assets accumulated abroad may become target of Ukraine backers Record current-account surplus provided lifeline for Kremlin” “Russia was able to save abroad about a third of the $227 billion windfall earned last year from its commodity exports, creating a potential new flashpoint as the US and its allies look to tighten … sanctions …. About $80 billion is scattered across […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Vladimir Putin’s conviction that the U.S. somehow encouraged North Caucasus-based terrorist groups prior to one such group’s deadly hostage-taking raid in Beslan in 2004 played a major role in his turn away from the West, according to David Ignatius’ analysis of a new book, “Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama.” “We […]
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(Moscow Times – Farida Rustamova, Maxim Tovkaylo – March 10, 2023) The first high-profile attempt by a group of Russian billionaires to get European sanctions against them lifted with help from the country’s political opposition has ended in bitter acrimony and the resignation of Leonid Volkov — a close ally of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny — from his position […]
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“Chinese leader Xi Jinping is considering sending lethal aid to Moscow’s forces in Ukraine. That would be a profound mistake.” “… Until now, China has wisely kept its distance, paying lip service to its partnership with Russia while mostly adhering to Western sanctions. … Despite requests for weaponry … China has so far sent only nonlethal aid, such as helmets […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements by GOP presidential contenders. […]
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“The chorus … claiming the Russian economy has proven vastly more resilient than expected is growing. … The implications are equally disturbing – that unprecedented U.S.-led sanctions don’t work. … Yet nothing could be further from the truth. Far from serving as the independent arbiter of the statistical underpinnings of global economic activity, the IMF has been asleep at the […]
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“Tangled in sanctions and Russian bureaucracy, or just looking for a buyer, many companies who promised quick exits remain in the country.” “Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a wave of promises by global businesses to exit Russia. A year later, many of those companies are still there. … Even after finding a buyer, some companies say they are struggling to […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Assessing the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Graham Allison and Stephen Kotkin underline the brute fact: Ukraine is not winning. The war has become a colossal strategic failure for Putin, but Russia does control almost one-fifth of Ukraine, Harvard’s Allison writes in his analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, which was produced by the […]
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(oilprice.com – Global Risk Insights – Feb. 20, 2023) The EU is debating sanctioning Russia’s nuclear sector, with the EU parliament passing a resolution by 489 votes to 36 urging European Union leaders to include sanctions on Russia’s nuclear industry. Nuclear energy produces roughly one fifth of electricity in the EU and USA. Russia is a major supplier of uranium […]
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The Russian economy’s macro indicators for 2022 surpassed the most optimistic expectations. Kirill Rogov explains how Russia has mitigated short-term economic shocks from its war in Ukraine and the crisis that lies ahead. (Kennan Institute – Kirill Rogov – Feb. 17, 2023) Kirill Rogov is a well-known political analyst in Russia and is frequently quoted in the West by the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Russian military has learned from its mistakes in Ukraine and now stands a chance to “snatch a diminished variant of victory from the jaws of defeat,” according to Dara Massicot of RAND. That victory would entail consolidating Russia’s control over its occupied holdings in Ukraine’s south and east, but Moscow “is unlikely to achieve its […]
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“The uncoupling from Russia has not happened, partly because executives have not woken up to the return of geopolitics.” “… At the end of [2022], [reportedly] fewer than 9 per cent of the 1,404 EU and G7 companies with operations in Russia before the invasion of Ukraine had left the country …. Where there have been divestments, it has tended […]
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“Western sanctions aren’t keeping iPhones off Russian shelves or Hollywood films out of Moscow’s theaters. ‘Parallel imports’ are making Russia’s economy more resilient than expected.” “… Frustrating U.S. and European sanctions hawks, Russia appears to be weathering the West’s attempts to damage its economy in response to the invasion of Ukraine. … Via what are known as ‘parallel imports,’ Russian […]
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“A report documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine. By November 2022, fewer than 9% had divested at least one subsidiary in Russia, and the research team noted that these divestment rates barely changed over the fourth quarter of […]
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“The resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new [I.M.F.] report … suggesting … [Western] efforts … to weaken Moscow because of its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering. … [T]he I.M.F. predicts … Russian output will expand 0.3 percent … this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts …. A … […]
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“If sanctions are imposed on Rosatom, Russia’s civilian nuclear firm, it could cut off exports of uranium to the U.S. and European nuclear industry. What would be the impact?” “Russia’s state-owned nuclear power conglomerate, Rosatom, is suspected of supplying the Russian arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel …. The military goods were sent to more […]
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(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]
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