Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 5-12, 2024

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT  reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]

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Peeling Away the Layers of Russian Foreign Policy

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 87 – William E. Pomeranz – January 2024) William Pomeranz is the Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine is fast approaching its two-year anniversary, with no end in sight. Russia continues to put on a brave face on this military and economic quagmire,[1] with Prime […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Athletes From Russia and Belarus Are Cleared to Compete at Paris Olympics” – New York Times

Olympic Rings Lit at Night, adapted from image at state.gov

“A decision by the International Olympic Committee paves the way for individuals from the two countries to take part over the objections of Ukraine and others.” “Individual athletes from Russia and Belarus who successfully qualify for next summer’s Paris Olympics will be allowed to compete in the Games, the International Olympic Committee announced on Friday, ending talk of a blanket […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Hopes to Rejoin ‘Olympic Family'” – Moscow Times

Olympic Rings Lit at Night, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – Sept. 22, 2023) The Kremlin said on Friday it hopes Russia could once again become part of the Olympic community despite sanctions against Russian athletes over Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has suggested allowing athletes from Russia and Moscow’s ally Belarus to compete as individuals under a neutral flag at the 2024 Olympics […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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Mutiny in Russia: What Happened, What’s Next and What To Be Thankful For

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – June 29, 2023) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of Russia Matters. What drove Yevgeny Prigozhin to lead his PMC Wagner troops on a “march for justice” across southern Russia, toward Moscow? Was it a mutiny meant to overthrow Vladimir Putin and install the ex-convict in the Kremlin? Or was the owner […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Wagner’s Aborted Mutiny Leaves No Winners in Russia; The authority of the Russian state has sustained lasting damage, inviting future challenges” – WSJ

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Shaken by the Wagner mutiny, Russia began addressing the damage of Saturday’s bout of violence as its citizens tried to understand how these events will affect … Putin’s regime, … shown … [to be] so unexpectedly vulnerable. … One widely shared conclusion in Russia …  was that none of the key players in the power struggle that began when Prigozhin […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despite war, post-Soviet states find breaking up with Russia hard to do” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

… [At this year’s Victory Day parade,] Putin was joined … by the leaders of seven other post-Soviet countries, including all five former Soviet Central Asian republics, plus Armenia and Belarus. After more than a year of severe stress, many of those countries have sought to distance themselves from embattled Moscow and find alternative avenues for trade, political connections, and […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 27-March 6, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements  by GOP presidential contenders. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Belarus Is Inching Toward Invading Ukraine; Signs are growing that an invasion from the north could be imminent” – Foreign Policy

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Recent satellite images of Belarus show newly carved forest roads and the movement of a slow stream of military equipment to Ukraine’s northern border. Many experts take it as a sign that Belarus is likely to be the next front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The arrival of new equipment, together with a recent ‘counterterror’ operation and snap inspection of […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Insists No Plan to Absorb Belarus on Visit in Ukraine Shadow” – Moscow Times

Belarus city file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – Dec. 21, 2022) President Vladimir Putin denied plans to absorb Belarus as he paid a rare visit Monday to the country whose strongman assisted his invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Putin flew into Minsk with his defense and foreign ministers in tow, hours after Russian forces launched a swarm of attack drones at critical infrastructure in Kyiv, which […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Belarus may be set for war with Ukraine. But at what cost to itself?” – Christian Science Monitor

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Belarus looks like it may be planning to enter the war in Ukraine. But that could endanger its own independence, if it hastens its integration with Russia.” “… Belarus appears to be edging toward directly joining in the war, under pressure from Moscow. … [E]xperts say … by doing so, it may ultimately be hastening its own absorption by Russia. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is Only One Small Part of Putin’s Plans” – New York Times

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“… The immediate aim, to be sure, is to return Ukraine to Russia’s orbit. But …. Putin’s design is grand: to refashion the post-Cold War settlement, in the process guaranteeing … Russia’s personalized power system. … Today, Ukraine is the jewel to fight for. But it won’t end there: Belarus, whose embattled leader relies on Russia’s support, could be the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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Kremlin Lashes Out At West, Defends Troop Movements, As It Boosts Role In Belarus-EU Border Crisis

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

The Kremlin has vowed to safeguard its borders in the face of actions by countries it accused of trying to “contain” Russia and sought to walk back a Belarusian threat of a cutoff of Russian natural gas to Western markets […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Aeroflot Denies Transporting Migrants to Belarus” – Moscow Times

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

Russia’s flagship airline Aeroflot has denied helping migrants and refugees from the Middle East travel to Belarus as European leaders scramble to deal with a migrant crisis on the Polish border […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Lukashenko threatens to cut gas supplies to Yamal-Europe gas pipeline if EU imposes new sanctions, promises to send refugees dry firewood” – bne Intellinews

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… Lukashenko has threatened to cut off [Belarusian] gas transit to Europe  … shutting down the Yamal-Europe pipeline if the EU imposes new sanctions …. The Yamal-Europe pipeline is part of the northern route that also includes … Nord Stream 1 and 2 … and transits gas from Russia’s Arctic Yamal fields via Belarus to Poland and on to Germany. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Belarus Revokes U.S. Ambassador’s Appointment in Retaliatory Move to Sanctions” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Minsk also tells U.S. Embassy to cut staff after new sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko’s government.” “… the U.S. Embassy in Minsk blamed Belarus for souring relations … citing what it called the regime’s ‘inability to allow independent voices to emerge in Belarus as well as its unwillingness to meet its international commitments.’ Steps toward resolving the country’s internal crisis, the […]

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Unpalatable Truths About Belarus’s Political Crisis

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 18, Issue 99 – Grigory Ioffe – June 22, 2021) On June 14, Belarus’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) organized a 74-minute briefing to the press (YouTube, June 14). Two out of the three major topics touched upon were 1) the alleged deportation to Poland of three activists of the Polish […]

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Belarus Could Become a Normal European Country with Far Less Difficulty than Ukraine, Inozemtsev Says

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, May 31, 2021) Once Alyaksandr Lukashenka is ousted from power, Belarus would find it far easier to become a normal European country than Ukraine seeking the same thing has, Vladislav Inozemtsev says, something that restrains Moscow from seeking his ouster precisely because it would give the West such an enormous opportunity. The […]

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AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Russia Stands To Gain By Backing Belarus [Fiona Hill interview]” – NPR

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“A growing number of European countries are blocking access to Belarusian airlines. … after Belarus intercepted a commercial flight and removed and arrested Roman Protasevich, an opposition journalist who was on board. … While Western democracies try to sanction Belarus, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, seems to support Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. … Fiona Hill … spoke to NPR’s All Things […]

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RUSSIALINK: “After Plane Crisis, Is Belarusian President Lukashenko Becoming a Troublesome Partner for Russia?” – Moscow Times

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

Analysts say Moscow’s muted reaction to the diversion to Minsk of a Ryanair flight speaks to the Kremlin’s ambivalent view of the strongman. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Felix Light – May 24, 2021) In the hours after Belarus shocked the world by forcing a Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk and arresting prominent opposition […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “We fund Russian democracy protesters, boasts U.S. group” – The Times (UK)

American Flag and Partial View of U.S. Capitol Dome, adapted from image at aoc.gov

“Senior officials at a U.S. government-funded organisation have been tricked into boasting about helping … pro-democracy movements in Russia and … a ‘modest but significant’ contribution to … protests in Belarus …. [S]tatements by … National Endowment for Democracy (NED) [officials,] … funded by … Congress, are expected to be seized upon by officials in Belarus and Russia as proof […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Multinational firms under pressure to break ties with Belarus” – bne Intellinews

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“The West has imposed sanctions on Belarus’ elite, but they are not enough to oust President Alexander Lukashenko. Increasingly the opposition and its supporters are targeting international companies doing business with Belarus.” “International multinational firms are coming under increased pressure to break business ties with Belarus as opposition leaders apply a ‘name and shame’ campaign …. Belarus has been wracked […]

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U.S. Lawmakers Call For New Sanctions If Russia Moves Forward With Fines On RFE/RL

American Flag and Partial View of U.S. Capitol Dome, adapted from image at aoc.gov

… Republican and Democratic lawmakers called for new sanctions against Moscow if the Kremlin moves to enforce stringent restrictions and punishing fines that threaten RFE/RL’s news operations in Russia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy deals point to thawing of Belarus-Russia relations” – Financial Times

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Moscow’s attitude towards Minsk had cooled in wake of protests against Lukashenko” “… Lukashenko[,] … rul[ing] Belarus since 1994, has faced massive street protests and unprecedented public anger since … [a] presidential election … [that] western countries said was falsified. His regime’s brutal crackdown … prompted … U.S., EU and UK … sanctions … and even sparked [Kremlin] anger …. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2021” – Moscow Times

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

We asked 10 experts to predict what Russia has in store for the world next year. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Pjotr Sauer – Jan. 4, 2021) Russia had to tread a fine foreign policy line in 2020. The country’s near abroad was rocked by unprecedented unrest as uprisings in Kremlin-friendly Kyrgyzstan and Belarus and war in the Caucasus challenged […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Former presidential candidate Tikhanovskaya wants to be Belarusian interim president for 45 days” – Interfax

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

Former Belarusian presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has said that she is willing to lead the country in the transitional period […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Tikhanovskaya’s People’s Ultimatum deadline expires, general strike due to start” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya set a deadline of October 25 for Lukashenko to leave office or face a general strike that will bring the country to its knees. Lukashenko has not quit.” “The [Sunday] deadline … expired … set by … nominal victor in Belarus’ presidential election Svetlana Tikhanovskaya as part of the ‘People’s Ultimatum.’ … demand[ing] … self-appointed President […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “With unrest on all sides, Russia’s regional muscle is being tested” – Washington Post/ Isabelle Khurshudyan

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… As Russia’s interests abroad have focused on building the country’s standing as a player on the global stage – including malicious operations such as trying to influence U.S. presidential elections – the Kremlin’s grip has weakened closer to home. Competition from Turkey, China and the West is increasingly challenging Moscow’s onetime dominance in the former Soviet space. … [and] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Alexander Lukashenko changes tack in Belarus stand-off” – Financial Times/ James Shotter, Max Seddon

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Meeting imprisoned opposition leaders is departure from previous hardline approach” “After … weeks in the Belarusian KGB prison, tech executive Dmitry Rabtsevich and a dozen opposition activists … [were visited by] embattled strongman … Lukashenko … [in] an unannounced roundtable with his jailed opponents. The jail then quickly released … Rabtsevich …. The bizarre four-and-a-half-hour jail meeting … was … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Loses His Footing in Russia’s Backyard” – Wall Street Journal/ Thomas Grove

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“Washington has watched Russia expand its global influence, but along its borders, Moscow is losing its monopoly on power.” “… Putin has long tried to strengthen economic and defense relations across Eastern Europe and Central Asia …. Russia still has military bases in Central Asia and the South Caucasus … [T]here are strong commercial and cultural ties …. But … […]

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Belarus Crisis Highlights Europe’s Energy Problem

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

(Oilprice.com – Vanand Meliksetian – Sept. 24, 2020) The ongoing demonstrations in Belarus and the looming instability are a threat to both Russia and the EU. Moscow prefers the continuation of Lukashenko’s regime due to political reasons. Europe, on the other hand, faces an energy crisis if the situation escalates which could lead to a disruption of supplies. Belarus’ geographic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A dozen countries refuse to recognise Lukashenko’s inauguration; Spontaneous protests broke out in the evening following Alexander Lukashenko’s secret inauguration for a sixth term” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“A dozen countries refused to recognise … Lukashenko as … legitimate president of Belarus after he secretly inaugurated himself … September 23. Tensions were high in Minsk after the news broke, with protesters in Minsk flooding the streets and clashing with police trying to disperse them. The only leader that sent a message to congratulate Lukashenko was Turkmen President Gurbanguly […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Lukashenko inaugurates himself in secret” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“Fearing mass protests, Belarus’ self-appointed President Alexander Lukashenko held an inauguration for himself in secret to complete the legal process of winning the disputed August 9 presidential election. … [T]he entire perimeter surrounding the presidential palace … was closed to traffic. Some companies told their employees not to come in, as … roads were closed. Police trucks and army vehicles […]

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