JRL NEWSWATCH: “Bureaucracy as the Pillar of Stability: Are There Any Real Institutions Inside the Russian Political Regime?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

“Russia’s ruling mechanism — bureaucratic institutions — may outlast the current personalism. This vast network of civil servants, technocrats, and administrators forms a modestly resilient framework that endures beyond individual political decisions, providing continuity and ensuring the steady day-to-day functioning of the government.” “A persistent question … has been whether Russia has transitioned from … authoritarian … to … totalitarian […]

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Emerging Leadership Crisis in Moscow Could be a More Violent Version of August 1991, Gallyamov Says

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Nov. 27, 2023) Even now, “Russian elites are unhappy with Putin, but they aren’t trying to overthrow him” because “they have something to lose and don’t want to take risks,” Abbas Gallyamov says. But “at some point, it will be this conflict within the elites that will destroy the regime.” According to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin is expected to seek reelection in Russia, but who would run if he doesn’t?” – AP

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Putin is … expected to seek another term when Russia holds presidential elections next March. … But 71 is an age when death or serious illness are hardly distant concerns …. If Putin was not on the ballot … it’s not clear who might take his place. … There are no primary elections … [P]olitical parties … present [candidates] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Reports of Putin’s death might not be greatly exaggerated” – The Hill/ Alexander J. Motyl

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Is … Putin dead? … [M]ysterious Russian Telegram channel … ‘General SVR’ and [prominent Russian political analyst] Valery Solovey … [say] yes. … [Putin] supposedly breathed his last … Thursday, Oct. 26. The Putin we see now [allegedly would] … actually his double … [already] filling in for the sickly real Putin for several months. Few Russian or Western analysts […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Regime Change in Russia Won’t Lead to Chaos or Collapse” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Russia Regions Map

“History shows that a change of leader in Russia has almost always been accompanied not by civil strife, but by liberalization.” “… [R]ecent years have seen regional leaders transformed into technocrats whose every move is closely controlled by the federal center. They depend on Moscow for everything, and are accountable to the Kremlin — not the local people. All such […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Godfather in the Kremlin”- WSJ

Kremlin and River

“The very public death of Putin henchman Yevgeny Prigozhin highlights the evolution of Russia into a mafia state held together by violence and incapable of global leadership.” “… Prigozhin had come to symbolize the criminal trajectory of the Russian state[,] [i]n the 1980s, … imprisoned in the Soviet Union, … [then] a rags-to-riches transformation from [post-Soviet] street vendor … to […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia expert Fiona Hill says Prigozhin’s death in a plane crash is ‘par for the course'” – Face the Nation

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“NANCY CORDES: … So, … Putin claims he had nothing to do with this. Is there anyone in the diplomatic community who believes that? FIONA HILL: I doubt it. … I think what we can certainly say is he didn’t order it not to happen because there are plenty of people who were painting a target on Prigozhin’s back. The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘He Has Blood on His Hands'” – New York Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“In a Ukraine village, there are no tears for Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner private militia, whose presumed death in a plane crash was reported this week.” “Mykola Honchar lives in a crumbling stone house in what is left of a tiny hamlet of eastern Ukraine. … attacked by Russian forces … last year, as … Wagner […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the suspected death of Prigozhin could impact Russia’s stability [Angela Stent]” – PBS

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Angela Stent …: Oh, I think Putin would have enough reason to [want] Prigozhin dead. After all, Prigozhin challenged the Kremlin. He challenged the conduct of the war. He had a populist message to Russians that, while their children were dying and their husbands dying in Ukraine, the children of the elite were in the South of France enjoying themselves. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “C.I.A. Chief Says Wagner Mutiny Revived Questions About Putin’s Rule” – New York Times

William Burns file photo, adapted from image at cia.gov

“William J. Burns gave the most detailed public account yet by a U.S. official of the damage done to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia by last month’s uprising by the mercenary group” “… [C.I.A. Director] Burns … said that for much of the 36 hours of the [Wagner] rebellion last month, Russian security services, the military and decision makers […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘Wonder Confronts Certainty’ Review: Lessons From Russian Literature” – WSJ

Bookcase file photo, adapted from image at nlm.nih.gov

“The writings of Tolstoy, Turgenev, Dostoyevsky and others are littered with clues for understanding the 21st-century world.” “Books of cultural criticism seldom shed a piercing light on headline events. However, readers of ‘Wonder Confronts Certainty,’ Gary Saul Morson’s masterly panorama of classic Russian literature and its hinterland of ideas, will find their understanding of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent botched rebellion against […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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Post-Mutiny: Trust in Prigozhin Below Margin of Error, Support for Peace Talk Grows

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – July 7, 2023) What made Yevgeny Prigozhin rebel? We have seen multiple explanations offered, including his outspoken hatred for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; his evident reluctance to give up control of his PMC Wagner to the Defense Ministry; unspecified personal financial pressures; and his […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is NATO Ready for Chaos in Russia?” – Foreign Policy/ Angela Stent

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… [Prigozhin’s] short-lived mutiny … reminded the world that autocrats appear to be stable — until they are not. As NATO leaders convene … they will focus on the immediate challenge of the Russia-Ukraine war …. [b]ut the Western alliance will inevitably confront having to deal with a less stable nuclear-armed Russia. NATO has returned to its original mission of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Prigozhin Affair Is Much Less than Meets the Eye” – Politico

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“The short-lived mutiny by the Wagner Group rebounded to help solidify Putin’s control.” “… There is no doubt that Prigozhin’s rebellion was unpleasant news for Putin. But is the Russian leader weakened? We know very little about what happened between Putin and Prigozhin … ‘Putin’s chef.’ And what we do know supports very few, if any, of the claims that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Wagner Cost Russia Suspiciously Little Money” – Bloomberg/ Leonid Bershidsky

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“If Putin’s defense spending numbers are correct, it’s likely that Prigozhin overstated the size of his army.” “… [D]isatisfaction with Russia’s military and political leadership will continue to brew with the fighting in Ukraine. As more details become available about Wagner — until recently, the best-equipped, always regularly paid part of the Russian invasion force — officers and soldiers alike […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 26-July 5, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]

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PONARS Eurasia: Your Monday Take – In the News [re: Prigozhin Apparent Mutiny]

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

(PONARS Eurasia – ponarseurasia.org – July 3, 2023) Ponarsians have weighed in en masse to interperet Yevgeny Prigozhin’s apparent mutiny. Kimberly Marten, who has long studied his Wagner Group, cautions that calling it a private military company belies the fact that it works on behalf of the Russian State and that, contrary to popular belief, Prigozhin is more its fixer […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Wagner ‘Coup’ Was Staged by Putin — and the West Fell for It” – Newsweek/ Rebekah Koffler

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“… An army invades Russia, race[s] right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn’t able to? And Putin holds his military back? And then, with Moscow supposedly within his grasp, Prigozhin decides, ‘Oh well, never mind’ and heads to Belarus? … It is […]

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Russia in Review, June 23-30, 2023 – One Thing to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russian intelligence services may have known in advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plan to stage a mutiny, but it nonetheless materialized to pose the greatest military and security threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule since the end of the second Chechen war. The mutiny itself lasted only 36 hours, never spread to Moscow and ended with its chief […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The humbling of Vladimir Putin: The Wagner mutiny exposes the Russian tyrant’s growing weakness. But don’t count him out yet” – The Economist

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“The last pretence of … Putin to be … one of his nation’s historic rulers was stripped away …. [A]rmed mercenaries swept through his country almost unopposed, covering some 750km (470 miles) in a single day, seizing control of two big cities and getting to within 200km of Moscow before withdrawing unharmed. [] Putin long ago failed as a reformer […]

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Mutiny in Russia: What Happened, What’s Next and What To Be Thankful For

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – June 29, 2023) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of Russia Matters. What drove Yevgeny Prigozhin to lead his PMC Wagner troops on a “march for justice” across southern Russia, toward Moscow? Was it a mutiny meant to overthrow Vladimir Putin and install the ex-convict in the Kremlin? Or was the owner […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Yesterday’s Putin Is Gone” – New York Times/ Andrei Kolesnikov

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Prigozhin’s mutiny … poke[d] a hole in the Kremlin’s campaign to assure Russians that everything is fine …. [] Prigozhin … gave more Russians reason to doubt their leadership. Is [] Putin really the all-powerful, czarlike figure they thought he was? …. Even if they are not ready to give up their relative safety and stability in favor of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Prigozhin went free. What about these Russians?” – Washington Post

File Photo of Prison Cell and Bars with Shaft of Light, adapted from image at fbi.gov

“For 18 months, Russia has been sliding deeper into totalitarian rule, including draconian laws pushed by … Putin that make it criminal to question the war against Ukraine — or even call it a ‘war’ …. [T]housands of Russians who object to the war and oppose [] Putin have not had the benefit of [the kind of] lenienc[y] [shown Prigozhin, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “West explores nuclear risks from unstable Putin regime” – Financial Times

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“Officials have discussed possible negative outcomes from Wagner insurrection destabilising Kremlin” “Western nations have explored contingencies in the aftermath of … Prigozhin’s attempted insurrection … including the threat to nuclear stockpiles from an unstable [Russian] regime …. Talks led by G7 members [reportedly] have included [discussions of] how a weakening of … Putin’s control over security and military forces could […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “After the rebellion, how well will Putin carry on his rule?”  – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted rebellion didn’t topple President Vladimir Putin. But in its aftermath, it has launched debate over just how stable Mr. Putin’s hold on the country really is.” “When oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin led his 25,000-strong Wagner private military forces into open insurrection against Russia’s Defense Ministry and Moscow elites … it looked like the kind of turning point that […]

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Émigré Politicians, Russian and Non-Russian, Mired in Wishful Thinking, Vintsevskaya Says

Russia Regions Map

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, June 14, 2023) Many émigré politicians, Russian and non-Russian, talk about the looming collapse of Russia, a position that is understandable but fundamentally defective because it is a classic example of wishful thinking, of believing that what one wants to happen is what will, Tatyana Vintsevskaya says. The Siberian activist, who herself […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Prigozhin, and Russia’s Future; Caution should be our guiding principle” – The Nation/ Katrina vanden Heuvel

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… Prigozhin lambasted the elite’s children as ‘shaking their tails on beaches’ while the children of ordinary Russian families are dying. … His fury both stokes and is fueled by widespread anger … [Russian] towns have been emptied by conscription[] and …  cemeteries seek more gravediggers. … It would be reckless to dismiss the possibility that the regime’s internal troubles […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Wagner ‘shot down seven Russian aircraft and killed 13 airmen’ during coup attempt” – The Telegraph (UK)

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

“Wagner Group mercenaries shot down seven Russian aircraft and killed 13 airmen during the failed coup attempt, according to Russian military bloggers. ‌Video footage … appeared to show the wreckage of a Russian Air Force Ilyushin-22 in a rural area of southern Russia … most likely to have been used as an airborne command and communications centre …. All 10 […]

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Prigozhin has captivated the West – but pundits have no idea what is going on

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Many Western pundits were quick to offer their hysterical takes on the weekend’s events in Russia” (opendemocracy.net – Jeremy Morris – June 26, 2023) Jeremy Morris is a researcher at Aarhus University, Denmark. His work covers labour relations, political economy, and the lived experience of people in Russia, Ukraine and other places since the collapse of the Soviet Union. He […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Beginning of the End for Putin? Prigozhin’s Rebellion Ended Quickly, but It Spells Trouble for the Kremlin” – Foreign Affairs/ Liana Fix, Michael Kimmage

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… [Recent] events … portend a dark future for Russia. In a few short hours, Prigozhin’s armed rebellion generated enormous chaos. The war has stretched Russian state capacity thin … [T]he revolt has stretched it still further, presenting … a new domestic challenge. For years, the Kremlin has devised ways to head off a [cosmopolitan,] liberal, urban revolution. … [T]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Gripped by Uncertainty After Mutiny, Russians Note Absence of Kremlin Leaders” – New York Times

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“Neither Vladimir V. Putin nor the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made public appearances on Sunday, a day after an armed rebellion shook the nation.” “Confusion and uncertainty pervaded Russia on Sunday … [N]either … Putin nor … Prigozhin, … head of a mutinous mercenary group, appear[ed] anywhere in public a day after the most profound government crisis in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin looked into the abyss Saturday — and blinked” – Washington Post

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… Putin looked into the abyss … and blinked. After vowing revenge for what he called an ‘armed mutiny,’ he settled for a compromise. The speed with which Putin backed down suggests … his sense of vulnerability might be higher even than analysts believed. Putin might have saved his regime Saturday, but this day will be remembered as part of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Prigozhin’s armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion” – Michael Kofman

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

(Michael Kofman – twitter.com/KofmanMichael – June 25, 2023) “A few thoughts on Prigozhin’s armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion. For now it appears over. … Prigozhin launched a mutiny that ultimately challenged Putin’s power, and the system. This was not a traditional coup, but with Putin’s video and FSB statements it became a challenge that would reveal the extent of brittleness in the regime. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Prigozhin’s Insurrection Creates Headaches for Russia-China Alliance, Experts Say” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Moscow Times – Jake Cordell) Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Treacherous Path to a Better Russia; Ukraine’s Future and Putin’s Fate” – Foreign Affairs/ Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Erica Frantz

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. … [and] authoritarian regimes most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders … [W]ere Putin to die … or be removed by insiders, the regime would … likely endure …. One development … could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate; Regardless of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia is bracing for a long war” – Foreign Policy

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“As Ukraine accelerates its counteroffensive a… a rational person might conclude … 2023 must surely be the last year of Russia’s war against its neighbor. Russian military resources are depleted, Moscow’s long and bloody winter offensive in the Donbas has yielded meager results, and Russian society longs for the return of prewar stability. Logic dictates … the Kremlin has no […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Putin’s War Became Russia’s War; The Country Will Struggle to Reckon With Its Crimes in Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Putin’s war against Ukraine has become the defining event of his years in power. Even if he rules for another quarter century, Russia’s president will forever be considered a war criminal. But the consequences of the war are even more far-reaching: it promises to leave a stain on Russian society and politics that will remain even after Putin is […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “De-colonising Russia and the independence movements threatening Putin” – The Herald (Scotland)

Russia Regions Map

“… The buzzword for the future of Russia is ‘decolonisation.’ For many people this means a challenge to the current state’s imperialistic mindset, in respect of both its neighbours and the minority nations inside its borders. For others, the term has come to mean dismemberment. … The current Federation has some 190 or so ethnic groups, and most are not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Imagining Russia’s future after Putin: Possible outcomes of a defeat in Ukraine” – Chatham House

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“… If Russia suffered … defeat in Ukraine and … Putin were removed as president, by the end of 2027 core features of Russia’s state system would be recognizable on the basis of what we see today. But even a managed leadership succession would unleash considerable uncertainty, leading to a broad spectrum of plausible [political, economic and foreign policy] outcomes […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian State TV Guest Calls for Putin’s Removal” – Newsweek

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… [A] Russian state television [anchor] … quickly interrupted … opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin after he suggested … Putin be ousted …. [O]n the [NTV] program Mesto Vstrechi (Meeting Place), Nadezhdin, who has opposed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, said that under the current political regime … ‘there is no way for us to come back to Europe.’ ‘We simply have […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why the War Will Continue: One year in, the war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending.” – Council on Foreign Relations/ Richard Haass

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Putin’s calculation that the benefits of invading would dwarf the costs became a formula for disaster. Putin now finds himself playing for time. Unable to defeat Ukraine’s military, he is attacking economic and civilian targets, hoping to break the will of Ukrainians. … [and perhaps hoping that] European governments … [and] the U.S.[] rethink the costs of supporting Ukraine. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russians Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War; The Pliant Majority Sustaining Putin’s Rule” – Foreign Affairs/ Andrei Kolesnikov

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

“… Those who fear Putin have either fled the country or are silent. The regime has a formidable arsenal of instruments to deploy against anyone who speaks out or otherwise expresses opposition. It has used the legal system to crush any dissent, handing down Stalinist prison terms to antiwar activists. It has invented its own equivalent of yellow stars to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Exiled Them. Big Mistake. Exiles from Putin’s Russia have a powerful role to play in what comes next in their country. It’s happened before.” – Politico/ Leon Aron

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“When it comes to regime change, there’s an important relationship between regime opponents inside the country, and exiles outside the country. This has played out over and over again in history, particularly in Russia. This dynamic will be important to whatever happens in Russia in the wake of … Putin’s ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine. … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe Needs a Strategy for Russia After Putin; Competing ideas about the end state of the war are striving for dominance” – Foreign Policy/ Bart M. J. Szewczyk

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

“As defense ministers of NATO and other nations met … and tried to resolve … divisions over supplying Ukraine with the heavy weapons it needs to drive Russian forces out of its territory … there are very different visions of the end state of the war and the region’s future. Among European countries, especially, there are stark differences … [with] […]

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JRL NEWSWEEK: “Russia Could Collapse Into ‘New States’ After Ukrainian Victory: Economist” – Newsweek

Russia Regions Map

“A Ukrainian victory could lead to the fall of the Russia Federation as we know it, according to one European economist. … Given that Russia is currently divided into a total of 89 regions — including 21 republics, 6 federal territories, 2 federal cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), 49 regions, 1 autonomous region and 10 autonomous areas — [the economist] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse; Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.” – Foreign Policy/ Alexander J. Motyl

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Regime is ‘Cracking’ as Elites Panic: Former U.S. Ambassador” – Newsweek

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“An argument on Russian state television is a ‘good sign’ that the country’s leadership is cracking, according to [] former U.S. [A]mbassador [McFaul]. Russia [reportedly] has threatened to nationalize assets of Western companies … pull[ing] resources from the country following its [Ukraine] invasion …. Hundreds of companies have already left Russia after expressing dissatisfaction with the war … [I]f the […]

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Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is Russia’s defence chief emerging as Putin’s possible successor? Putin is still pondering the idea of another term, but as he approaches 70, bets are being placed on Sergey Shoigu” – Al Jazeera

Sergei Shoigu file photo, adapted from image at defense.gov by Steven C. Welsh, www.stevencwelsh.info :: www.stevencwelsh.com

… [M]any wonder who will succeed [Putin], and when. … [T]he Kremlin scrupulously weeds out all charismatic critics. … [P]otential successors from the halls of power have been demoted to irrelevant sinecures. … Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu[] [is] Russia’s longest-serving cabinet member and its second-most popular politician …. [H]e hails from Tuva, an impoverished province of Turkic-speaking Buddhists that borders […]

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