(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, May 21, 2020) Before our eyes and in a remarkably short time, Aleksandr Tsipko says, the coronavirus pandemic has destroyed the hitherto widely held belief among Russians that the fate of their country and the fate of Vladimir Putin were ineluctably intertwined and even one and the same thing. The senior Moscow […]
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… The report on Bloomberg noted that only 27 percent of respondents in the poll, published on April 27, named Putin when asked to name a politician they they most trust. […]
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“As infections grow, Russia finds a shortfall in oil revenue hurts its ability to offer the kind of emergency support provided in the West.” “… [Russia’s] slump … began … when coronavirus lockdowns in China and elsewhere pushed oil prices lower. … Putin’s hesitance in joining … big producers to curtail output compounded the problem, driving oil to its lowest […]
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“… the situation could evolve in a bleaker direction, eroding Putin’s authority and enticing elites to consider alternatives, such as blocking Putin’s bid for reelection in 2024. But, for the past twenty years, Putin has been a skillful and a lucky leader. That has kept him at the top of the system. This year will tell whether his skill or his luck – or both – have run out.”
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“A row over censorship has plunged Russia’s top business newspaper into a crisis that could either see it fall under the Kremlin’s control or torpedo a deal to sell it, leaving it on the verge of bankruptcy. Staff at Vedomosti are in open revolt against new acting editor Andrei Shmarov … they say he banned writing about taboo topics for […]
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“… Putin’s … oil price war with Saudi Arabia … was disastrously timed. … days before the coronavirus pandemic began forcing economies around the world into lockdown, cutting crude demand. Russia then succumbed to the virus itself. … [Putin] had to cancel a referendum to approve constitutional changes …. The IMF forecasts Russian [GDP] could contract by 5.5 per cent […]
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Russia entered the crisis with a stagnant economy, and its oil-price war with the Saudis isn’t helping. “… the pandemic could hardly have come at a worse time …. Russia entered the crisis in a weakened state. Its longest stagnation in modern history …. 12%[] were below the subsistence minimum …. Most of the impoverished were working. … Rosstat, reported […]
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(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 17, Issue 54 – Paul Goble – April 21, 2020) The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has changed Russians more fundamentally than any past revolution. In particular, the government’s response and the changes in day-to-day life for the average Russian has destroyed traditional widespread faith in society that Russia’s authorities are omnipotent while […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, April 10, 2020) Because of the pandemic, the Kremlin has delayed its plans for a constitutional amendment referendum from April 22 to some as yet unspecified date in the future, a delay that has not calmed but rather intensified discussions about it, both political and technical, Yuliya Krivonosova says. The Moscow journalist […]
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“… While many countries have a clear ‘line of succession’ …. [f]or Russia, this line of succession is not clear beyond the first step, which is the prime minister assuming the duties of the president. But recent measures in response to COVID may provide some level of insight …. Most leaders in Russia are still out and about, making statements […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – William E. Pomeranz, Deputy Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute – March 30, 2020) In the end, it was all a big show. Putin unleashed constitutional reform in his January 15, 2020, state of the nation address with a hint of institutional change and a theoretical path forward to a post-Putin era. He formally […]
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Referendum originally planned for April is final hurdle to allowing Russia’s president to potentially stay in office until 2036 “In his first address to the nation since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic … Putin told citizens that an April referendum on changes to the country’s constitution would be postponed to help curb the spread of the illness. The national […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, March 14, 2010) Most residents of the Russian Federation are at present indifferent as far as the constitutional amendments are concerned either because they have been reduced from the status of citizens to mere populace or because no one has explained why these changes are needed or what they will mean, Ilnar […]
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(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – March 16, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russian-scholars-legal-experts-sign-up-against-constitutional-coup-/30490881.html) Hundreds of scholars, journalists, and legal experts in Russia have warned in an open letter that the country faces a “deep constitutional crisis and an illegal, unconstitutional coup” as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on a raft […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Henry Hale – March 11, 2020) Henry E. Hale is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Co-director of PONARS Eurasia at George Washington University. Speaking to the lower house of parliament on March 10, Vladimir Putin seemingly affirmed what many have suspected all along: that he intends to stay in power well beyond […]
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“… Putin … chose the crudest … perhaps simplest[] method – changing the constitution and giving himself an option to stay …. in the footsteps of several post-Soviet central Asian despots …. Putin’s other amendments curb the … parliament and courts … position[ing] him as ‘not only the head of the state but the head of the executive branch … […]
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“… Constitutional amendments already in the works will now include a provision allowing [Putin] to serve two more terms. That could extend his time in office to 2036, when he will be 83. … [Putin] could rule Russia for 36 years, more than a decade longer than Joseph Stalin. … a recipe for stagnation, akin to the corrosive paralysis … […]
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In a carefully scripted appearance, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia agreed he should be allowed to seek two more terms, if the Constitutional Court approves “It looked as though … Putin had been gearing up … obscure constitutional changes as a surreptitious way to remain Russia’s leader after presidential term limits forced him to step down in 2024. But […]
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Olga Khvostunova – February 27, 2020) Olga Khvostunova is IMR’s political analyst and researcher. In an interview with IMR, political scientist Vladimir Gelman, professor of the European University in St. Petersburg and the University of Helsinki, discusses the origins of Russia’s bad governance, the goals of Vladimir Putin’s recent political initiatives, and the […]
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(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Matthew Luxmoore – Moscow, Jan. 28, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/why-so-few-protests-against-putin-s-constitutional-shake-up-/30402490.html) When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a raft of constitutional changes in his state-of-the-nation speech on January 15, immediately fueling mounting suspicion that he was seeking a way to retain power after his current […]
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“… The timing and the nature of the constitutional amendments make it clear that … Putin perceives his regime as in crisis and is doubtful about the continued viability of a system of personal rule when he is no longer around. He knows perfectly well that what his apologists trumpet as political stability is in reality … stagnation … that […]
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Here are five takeaways from the government personnel changes put in place on January 21, five days after parliament rubber-stamped the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin to replace Medvedev as prime minister. …
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“… Putin remained tight-lipped about his future role … as he fast-tracks … constitutional changes widely seen as an attempt to maintain his dominance … after … 2024. … Putin, 67, has been in power for more than 20 years, longer than any other Russian or Soviet leader since Josef Stalin, who led from 1924 until his death in 1953. […]
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Proposals could allow Russia’s president to exercise power beyond his 2024 term limit “Russia’s parliament … gave preliminary approval to … Putin’s constitutional overhaul … [which] could allow him to maintain control over the country’s political scene after his term ends in 2024. The Kremlin-controlled State Duma … unanimously passed the constitutional amendments bill in the first of three readings. […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, October 5, 2019) Those at the top of the Russian political pyramid are not interested in modernizing the country but only in ensuring that the 2024 transition be smooth and secure for themselves, Denis Volkov and Andrey Kolesnikov say; and they find equally acceptable both the scenario in which Putin remains and […]
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“… The U.S., acting alone, won’t succeed in changing … [the behavior] of the Russian government. Only the Russian people are capable of this. … Putin runs the country with unrivaled strength[] [b]ut his time will pass. We need to do … more thinking about the institutions and generations that will outlast him. … [W]e need to cultivate constructive relationships […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, September 21, 2019) Every move the Kremlin makes on the political field today shows that ‘the mechanisms of administration which have been in place for two decades have exhausted themselves and that the Kremlin has not been able to put in place a new model of rule,” Liliya Shevtsova says. As a […]
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“… as tens of thousands of protesters once again took to the streets in Moscow to protest upcoming municipal elections, Russian state television showed a smiling … Putin riding with … [a] motorcycle club in Crimea. … a typical scene … the president doing tough guy stuff at the location of his most popular act of [the] annexation of Crimea. […]
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“It is 20 years this month since then-President Boris Yeltsin appointed a shadowy security chief called Vladimir Putin as Russia’s prime minister. The next New Year’s Eve, the ailing … Yeltsin would install the ex-KGB man as his successor. On the anniversary of his ascent to power … Putin has little reason to celebrate. [In one of a series of […]
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“… Putin did not want to be compared with … Brezhnev … [who] ruled the Soviet Union … 1964 to 1982 … leader of Putin’s gritty youth … the long stagnation that preceded the empire’s collapse. By the end … butt of a million jokes … doddering grandfather of a doddering state …. ‘Stalin proved that just one person could […]
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“… Putin has moved to annex former Soviet territories, orchestrated cyberattacks on foreign infrastructure and rolled back domestic democratic protections …. [I]n reality, Russia today is much weaker than either the Romanov Empire, which lasted from 1613 to 1917, or the Soviet Union. Russia’s biggest problem is internal: … fail[ing] to produce a national identity … encompass[ing] its entire population. […]
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“The level of confrontation between the Kremlin and the Russian opposition has increased, and along with it the scale and severity of the law-enforcement response to protests.” “There has been a significant and sustained shift in the Kremlin’s relationship with the Russian opposition[] and … the Russian public [generally] …. Authorities across the country have issued ever fewer permits for […]
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“… The Kremlin controls the Russian parliament … makin[g] it possible to change the constitution at any moment, making Putin president for life. … [a] ‘nuclear option’ … anathema to Putin … despite persistent election rigging in his favor. … That makes it difficult to follow the path laid out by Kazakhstan[‘s] … Nazarbayev. … [who] … resigned as president […]
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MOSCOW. July 25 (Interfax) – The basic provisions of the Russian Constitution do not require any radical amendments; however, some minor adjustments are possible, Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matviyenko said. “I have always believed and do believe that the basic provisions of our constitution do not require any radical amendments. We’ve achieved a balance and separation of powers. That […]
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“The Kremlin raised the possibility of changing Russia’s Constitution after a top lawmaker proposed bolstering parliament’s powers, in a move that could help to extend … Putin’s rule. … constitutional amendments, including allowing parliament a say in forming the government, received ‘a widespread response’ and are ‘a matter for discussion,’ Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters …. Putin in 2024 […]
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“Most Russians think little about the future, possess only a passing knowledge of the political calendar and would have difficulty naming the date of the next presidential election. … [Asking] focus groups consisting of Muscovites of differing ages as well as attitudes towards Putin …. [resulted in] pro- and anti-Putin participants mainly discuss[ing] two post-election scenarios: 1) [Putin] remains at […]
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“Mikhail Khodorkovsky provides his perspective on the domestic political climate in Russia, prospects for democratic change, and the future of U.S.-Russia relations.” (Council on Foreign Relations – cfr.org – April 29, 2019 – cfr.org/event/russias-democracy-what-happens-after-putin) [Click here for transcript and original post: cfr.org/event/russias-democracy-what-happens-after-putin] “Speaker: Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Founder, Open Russia Presider: Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Special Assistant to […]
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“… Zelensky has so challenged … Putin’s vision of the world that he already has turned the Kremlin leader into his mortal enemy … According to … Russian sociologist [Eidman], Putin’s autocracy rests on the conviction … that there is no possibility of change. … But if what Zelensky has achieved in Ukraine is possible, then change is possible not only there but in Russia and … other post-Soviet states. …”
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The transition to Putin’s constitutionally scheduled replacement as president of Russia may be rougher than currently expected. “… an ordered and stable succession … when … Putin leaves the presidency in May 2024 … is … questionable. Those close to the Kremlin are aging, like Putin. None … has a glimmer of independent authority within the ruling cabal, not even […]
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MOSCOW. March 22 (Interfax) – The Social Engineering Agency has been set up in Russia as a new analytical center to develop measures to oppose color revolutions, State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee head Leonid Slutsky said. “In my view, this is a grand idea. It’s the first time that steps to prevent the implementation of scenarios inspired from the outside […]
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“… Tatiana Stanovaya says Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s resignation won’t likely affect … Putin’s transition-of-power calculus in the way that many observers have speculated. She argues that Kazakhstan’s unique political traditions, elite structure, and society, not to mention the country’s fundamentally different geopolitical conditions, mean that Nazarbayev’s exit doesn’t work as a model for Putin, though the Kremlin will pay […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, Feb. 25, 2019) In a new survey of risks facing the Russian economy, Moody’s Investors Service says that “unorganized” regime change is “a distant but tangible one,” simultaneously sending warnings to both Vladimir Putin and to any who might seek to push him out of office before 2024. Many commentators have taken […]
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When the Kremlin’s ex-chief ideologist speaks, people listen. Last week, he said that the governmental structure that Putin built would outlive the man who built it. Now Russians are arguing over what ‘Putinism is. “… Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s once-foremost ideologist … [in a recent article] argued … that the political regime set up by … Putin is itself a […]
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“… Surkov … coined ‘sovereign democracy’ and ‘non-linear war’ … a presidential adviser with apparent overall responsibility for policy over Ukraine …. [H]e has to negotiate razor-toothed factional and jurisdictional disputes between the Kremlin, the presidential administration in Old Square, the FSB and the military. … [one of the] high-flyers … lack[ing] a strong personal connection with Putin, or a […]
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“… Russia grapples with its own deep cyber insecurity. Notwithstanding their bold moves in cyberspace, Russia’s leaders have spent much of the last decade panicking about cyber tools and the prospect of falling victim to their use by foreign adversaries. To be sure, the Kremlin isn’t worried that U.S. spies are hacking its voter systems. Rather, as my new study […]
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“Russia faces a looming question: What follows Putin’s current, likely final presidential term? An answer is beginning to take shape – and may involve a new position for Putin and a reshaped political landscape” “For many years, the main slogan of anti-Kremlin opposition activists – often shouted as they were being dragged into police vans at street protests – has […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, January 15, 2019) Ever more Russians are drawing analogies between their country today and its situation in 1917 and between Vladimir Putin and the last tsar Nicholas II, sociologist and commentator Boris Kagarlitsky says; and this is quite “logical” given the tone deaf reaction of the powers that be in both cases […]
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“Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine and … persistent subversion of Western states demonstrates that Washington and Brussels have failed to restrain Moscow’s imperial ambitions. Engagement, criticism and limited sanctions have … reinforced Kremlin perceptions that the West is weak and predictable. To curtail Moscow’s neo-imperialism a new strategy is needed … [to] nourish[] Russia’s decline and manages the international consequences […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, December 9, 2018) Vladimir Putin casts such a dark shadow on Russia that it is perhaps no surprise that many in the opposition believe, as commentator Aleksandr Rusin puts it today, that finding and installing a new leader is “the chief issue of present-day Russia” and that “everything else is secondary” (publizist.ru/blogs/110401/28399/-). […]
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(opendemocracy.net – Karine Clement – November 20, 2018) Karine Clément is a sociologist and research associate at CERCEC/EHESS (Paris). [opendemocracy.net/od-russia/karine-clement/how-to-think-about-russia-without-putin] A review of Tony Wood, Russia Without Putin: Money, Power and the Myths of the New Cold War (Verso Books). [Amazon: amazon.com/gp/product/1788731247/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1788731247&linkCode=as2&tag=faitcent-20&linkId=ecd69929f1165153c42f42523c2d050c] [Amazon promo: How the West’s obsession with Vladimir Putin prevents it from understanding Russia It is impossible to […]
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