JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse; Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.” – Foreign Policy/ Alexander J. Motyl
“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s collapse and disintegration. … [T]he combination of a failed war abroad and a brittle, strained system at home is increasing the likelihood of some sort of implosion …. [r]egardless of whether this will be good or bad for the West … an outcome policymakers should prepare for. …. [C]ountries along Russia’s border — from the Baltic[s] … to Central Asia — will, if they manage to remain stable … be key to containing … [any] instability … within Russia. They will also be key to helping the Russian Federation’s newly independent successor states stabilize and behave with moderation. … [C]ontinued strong Western support for Ukraine — and eventually … a free Belarus and key countries like Kazakhstan — is the best guarantee that … aftershocks will be minimized ….”