JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Treacherous Path to a Better Russia; Ukraine’s Future and Putin’s Fate” – Foreign Affairs/ Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Erica Frantz

“… Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. … [and] authoritarian regimes most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders … [W]ere Putin to die … or be removed by insiders, the regime would … likely endure …. One development … could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. Kyiv’s triumph in the war raises the possibility, even if only slightly, that Putin could be forced out … creating an opening for a new style of Russian government. … galvaniz[ing] … [the necessary] bottom-up pressure …. Such a development carries risks — of violence, chaos, and even the chance of a more hard-line government … — but … also opens the possibility of a more hopeful future for Russia and for its [foreign] relations …. Washington and its allies can do little to directly shape Russia’s political trajectory. A better Russia can be produced only by a clear and stark Ukrainian victory …. [Western] [s]upport … in the form of sustained military assistance [to Ukrainian] and efforts to anchor the country … through membership in the [EU] and NATO — will pave the way for improved relations with a new Russia. … [after Ukrainian victory ultimately leads to] profound political change [in Russia] ….”

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