“Ammunition and arms will be rushed to Kyiv’s forces on funding bill’s approval, ‘literally in the nick of time’” “The House vote to approve $60 billion … for Ukraine comes at a desperate moment … and holds the prospect of helping them stave off a Russian onslaught at the last possible moment. If approved by the Senate … and … […]
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“… Zelensky … [on] Sunday … emphasiz[ed] that the U.S. is helping protect democracy throughout the region. … ‘The Americans are not funding the war in Ukraine. They foremost protect freedom and democracy all over Europe. And Ukraine is fighting … sending their best sons and daughters to the front …reduc[ing] the price for all Europe, for all NATO,’ Zelensky […]
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“… [With] restored U.S. support and ongoing help from Europe, Ukraine might be able to turn the tide. …. Ukrainian conscription … [now] allow[s] the government to draft men ages 25 and 26, [so that] some 400,000 more men are now eligible. … [T]hat likely won’t be enough to find 200,000 more, so [Ukraine] will also need … to increase […]
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“… Should Kyiv be defeated in the full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022, ‘the global system of security will be destroyed … and all the world will need to find … a new system of security,’ [Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys] Shmyhal said … Wednesday …. ‘Or, there will be many conflicts, many such kinds of wars, and in […]
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“The great tragedy of the Russian-Ukrainian war is that it will ultimately prove to have been futile. The likely outcome — territorial adjustments in Moscow’s favor, security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia — could have been peaceably negotiated beforehand had leaders had a firmer grasp of the real balance of power or greater political courage. The cost of failed diplomacy […]
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“Lavrov discussed security with Wang during visit to China Beijing and Moscow have deepened ties since the start of war” “Russia and China agreed to start a [security] dialogue … with the aim of ‘double counteracting’ the [U.S.-led] European-Atlantic alliance …. ‘We have a common goal of increasing security in Eurasia,’ Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday … [meeting] […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know Russian forces have gained 23 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 0 square miles in the past month, according to the April 2, 2024, issue of the Belfer Center’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Most recently, Russian forces have advanced into the outskirts of the town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine, […]
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“Admitting Kyiv is a nonstarter as long as the war with Russia is raging. But the member nations want to show they are supporting Ukraine ‘for the long haul.’” “… Ukraine … ultimately [wants] … a formal invitation to join NATO. … [A]lliance officials agree that is not going to happen at … festivities … [in] Washington in July. NATO […]
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“[U.S. ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith] has stressed that the U.S. and its transatlantic partners are preparing for a Russian expansion of its war on Ukraine into allied territory … [saying] Tuesday that Russia remains ‘the pre-eminent threat that we’re grappling with,’ though [she] added: ‘We do not see an imminent threat to NATO territory.’ ‘NATO is not sitting on […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore The March 22 terrorist attack on a concert hall outside Moscow, in which more than 130 people were killed and for which ISIS claimed responsibility, is a “reminder of the fatal results of mutual distrust in the US-Russian relations,” Anatol Lieven writes in reference to the fact that the U.S. did warn Russia on March […]
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“Raising specter of nuclear confrontation allows Russian leader to keep his population on edge and convinced of need for militarism, analysts say.” “… Putin warned publicly … of the possibility of nuclear confrontation with the West, a saber … [Putin was] rattling with increasing frequency ahead of presidential elections this weekend. The comments — part of an interview with a […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Mar. 11, 2024) Many of the mistakes Western elites have made about Russia and that Moscow elites have made about their own county arise from misconceptions each has about Russia’s future, Vladimir Pastukhov says. The West has mistakenly assumed Russia is in terminal decline while Moscow elites think they can restore the […]
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“… [Russian] voting … conclud[ing] … Sunday is all but certain to allow Putin to remain in office until 2030, giving him a full three decades of leading Russia as either president or prime minister. … [T]hat long tenure and the thorough suppression of effective domestic opposition voices gives Putin a very strong — and perhaps unrestrained — hand … […]
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“… [C]containment should prioritize defending Russia’s threatened neighbors, especially those that do not have a clear and immediate path to NATO membership. Apart from Ukraine, Russia’s most vulnerable neighbors include [non-NATO] Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova …. The United States should offer … training and weapons … [and] bolster [their] resilience against Russian gray-zone threats, ranging from cyberattacks to election meddling. […]
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“Russia’s advantage on the battlefield could prompt Ukraine’s backers to give it more of what it wants, and needs, to win the war. Defense analysts call this irony of conflict the ‘escalation paradox.’ French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial comments on the possibility of NATO ground troops in Ukraine demonstrated this paradox.” “… With Ukraine now on the back foot, analysts […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]
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“Allies must provide Kyiv with what it needs to win the war and secure the peace: arms supplies and a path to NATO membership.” “… [T]he West … need[s] … a clearer strategy for achieving victory and stopping … Putin from overturning the rules-based international order. … [H]esitation and incrementalism in providing Ukraine with the military capabilities … it needs […]
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“Putin’s state of the nation address should have been a mere pre-election formality, but it left an extremely chilling impression of an unraveling spiral of escalation.” “… The horizons of this ‘holy war’ have now expanded. If a year ago, Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and relied on defensive and even sacrificial rhetoric, this year he sounded victorious, speaking […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]
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“Two years after Russia’s invasion, America’s waning commitment is raising fears that Putin could win the war — and that Europe may be on its own in future conflicts.” “… Ukraine has proved a formidable foe, regaining half of the land initially occupied by Russia and inflicting staggering casualties on Russia’s much more powerful military. Europe, too, has absorbed the […]
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“… If the fundamental purpose of [] Putin’s war was to keep Ukraine within Russia’s orbit — politically, culturally and economically — it has had the opposite effect. Ukraine’s leaders and citizens, particularly those from younger generations, have decided that their future lies with the West, not Russia [including in eastern Ukraine]. … [A]ny visitor to Ukraine’s eastern and southern […]
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“Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.” “… Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 … Putin looked set to stay in power […]
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“… [T]he outlook appears bleak: both sides have sustained horrific losses, millions of Ukrainians remain displaced or in exile, and there is no plausible sign of an end to the violence. Western capitals are struggling to supply funds and ammunition to Kyiv … [T]he Kremlin seemingly draws on limitless supplies and political support from authoritarian allies and continues to pound […]
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“Just this [past] week the Kremlin claimed it was at war with the United States and Putin’s No.1 enemy was found dead in prison. Russians are terrified about what’s next.” “…. Putin’s spokesman informed Russians this [past] week that … [Russia’s] ‘special military operation’ … was set to go on much longer because it is now ‘a war against the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv, Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration – Feb. 14, 2024) Two years of war in Ukraine is already a long time, but recent events suggest that all forecasts regarding the end of hostilities no longer apply. For the first time, in speaking of a “long war” we’re referring […]
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“… The July 2023 NATO summit … settl[ed] on an ambiguously worded communiqué declaring … NATO could invite Ukraine to join ‘when Allies agree and conditions are met.’ … The absence of a clear plan … has given Putin more confidence that he can wait out the West … in a war of attrition. … [T]he lack of resolve … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]
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“General Sir Patrick Sanders says volunteers must be prepared for conflict, in speech No 10 didn’t want made public” “Civilians must be trained and equipped to form a ‘citizen army’ of tens of thousands in case Britain is dragged into war with a country such as Russia …. General Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the general staff [said], also … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]
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“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]
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“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]
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“On its own, a Ukrainian battlefield victory won’t be sufficient if Russia’s wrongs are left intact and its crimes unpunished.” “… [N]either Ukraine nor … international law and justice would be fully served if Russia’s wrongs were left intact and its crimes unpunished. … [L]arge-scale displacement and deportation of Ukrainian children is one of Russia’s most abhorrent offences … a […]
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“… Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister in charge of ties with the U.S., non-proliferation and arms control, told … Izvestia … present circumstances were not ‘conducive’ to arms talks with Washington. ‘If the United States expects to win the next arms race … the Americans are mistaken,’ Izvestia [quoted] Ryabkov as saying …. [Meanwhile, in the past,] Putin told […]
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“Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality … and prepare for a multiyear war and … the long-term containment of Russia…. Russia is not becoming … more amenable to compromise. … [T]he Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the … international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now …. Western and Ukrainian leaders need to […]
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“… The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy …. center[ing] on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling … a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads. Some believe … only two routes [lie] ahead: … the perpetuation of war — with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor — or negotiations that lead […]
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“Kremlin leader seeks to turn advantage in manpower and munitions into battlefield progress, while Western will and assistance for Kyiv waver “… [P]olitical paralysis in the U.S. and Europe … threaten[] … [Ukrainian] … [access to[] arms and money … [T]he Russian army’s limitations … suggest it is more likely to grind out [just] small gains …. The Ukrainian army […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]
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“Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.” “… Washington and its allies have been remarkably effective at tackling the most urgent aspects of this problem: staving off Ukraine’s collapse, keeping it well-supplied with advanced weapons and real-time […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]
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“… Nov. 7 in Moscow, the Kremlin defiantly renounced its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), once thought of as a pillar of European stability. … NATO countries quickly followed suit, suspending … treaty obligations. The CFE is not the only arms control agreement … thrown onto the garbage heap of history in recent years. […]
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“NATO member[s] … that signed a key Cold War-era security treaty froze their participation in the pact on Tuesday just hours after Russia pulled out, raising fresh questions about the future of [European] arms control agreements …. Many of NATO’s 31 allies are parties to the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe … aimed at preventing Cold War rivals […]
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6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 860 – Polina Sinovets – Oct. 23, 2023 – PDF: click here) Dr. Polina Sinovets is a Founder and a Head of the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP) at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University (Ukraine). This memo is based on a forthcoming NATO Defense College policy brief, “Fifty Shades of Red: Where Does Russia Draw […]
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