JRL NEWSWATCH: “The West’s False Choice in Ukraine: The crossroads is not between war and compromise, but between victory and defeat.” – Foreign Policy/ Nona Mikhelidze, Nathalie Tocci
“… The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy …. center[ing] on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling … a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads. Some believe … only two routes [lie] ahead: … the perpetuation of war — with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor — or negotiations that lead to some form of territorial compromise. Yet reality in Ukraine — and, above all, in Russia — suggests that … negotiation … is not available. Ukrainians believe … Putin’s ambitions reach beyond the annexation of a few regions and instead extend to the genocidal subjugation and erasure of their country and identity. … The choice facing the West is not between war and compromise but between defeat and victory. The trajectory the West is on — maintaining current levels of support or perhaps scaling them back while pushing for negotiations — raises the chances of defeat. Putin is banking on this: At the heart of his theory of victory lies his conviction that Russia’s staying power in the war is greater than the West’s (and, by extension, Ukraine’s). … Ukraine’s Western supporters should ask themselves: What are the costs of a step change to enable Ukraine’s victory relative to the costs of maintaining the status quo or scaling back support leading to Ukraine’s defeat? … No one can know what could happen next — or after a vindicated Russia rearms. No reasonable European country can afford to take that bet, and no reasonable U.S. administration should … either. …”