JRL NEWSWATCH: “What will it take for Ukraine to win?” – Washington Post: Michael O’Hanlon
“… [With] restored U.S. support and ongoing help from Europe, Ukraine might be able to turn the tide. …. Ukrainian conscription … [now] allow[s] the government to draft men ages 25 and 26, [so that] some 400,000 more men are now eligible. … [T]hat likely won’t be enough to find 200,000 more, so [Ukraine] will also need … to increase enlistments from other age categories … [requiring] improve[d] incentives …. With another $60 billion in U.S. aid, a boost in recruiting and an impressive military push through a small section of the front line, Ukraine might have a chance, late [2024] or early [2025], to liberate half or more of its occupied territory. The odds are tough, but not hopeless. [Ukraine] deserves a second chance at such a counteroffensive — to defend the global order … stop Russia’s aggression … free its own citizens … under Russian rule and regain its Black Sea coast. … What if Ukraine’s next counteroffensive doesn’t work? Then the United States might well decide to shift its support to … explicitly defensive military assistance … at maybe half the cost … [I]t is too soon to push Ukraine toward that option. ….”
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