JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia, Azerbaijan Agree to Develop War-Ravaged Nagorno-Karabakh” – Wall Street Journal/ Ann M. Simmons

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“A Russian-brokered peace deal appears to be holding but challenges over POWs and displaced people have yet to be resolved.” “… Deep-seated hostilities [reportedly] will make it tough for Armenians and Azeris to live side by side, at least in the short term …. [T]he region[] [has a] history of ethnic animosity between … largely Christian Armenians and mostly Muslim, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenian, Azerbaijani leaders in Russia for talks” – AP

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Putin … hosted … counterparts from Armenia and Azerbaijan[] [for] their first meeting since a … Nov. 10 peace deal end[ing] 44 days of hostilities in which … Azerbaijani [forces] routed Armenian forces … reclaim[ing] control over large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas. Nagorno-Karabakh … within Azerbaijan … had been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2021” – Moscow Times

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

We asked 10 experts to predict what Russia has in store for the world next year. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Pjotr Sauer – Jan. 4, 2021) Russia had to tread a fine foreign policy line in 2020. The country’s near abroad was rocked by unprecedented unrest as uprisings in Kremlin-friendly Kyrgyzstan and Belarus and war in the Caucasus challenged […]

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The Second Karabakh War and Western Strategic Thinking

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(The Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Robert M. Cutler – Jan. 5, 2021) Robert M. Cutler is a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and a Practitioner Member of the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation, the University of Waterloo The Second Karabakh War has revealed the intellectual bankruptcy of the West’s penchant for grand strategic thinking, which stereotypes […]

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Baku’s Success in Using Turkish Drones Raises Question: Could Ukraine Use Them Against Russia in Crimea?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 17, Issue 179 – Paul Goble – Dec. 16, 2020) The Azerbaijani military’s use of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), purchased from Turkey, played such a prominent role in Baku’s victory over Armenian forces during the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) that defense analysts around the world are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Protesters in Armenia besiege parliament, demand PM resigns” – AP/ Avet Demourian

Yerevan

“Thousands of protesters converged on … Armenia’s [parliament building] … … push[ing] for the resignation of … prime minister [Nikol Pashinyan] over his handling of the fighting with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. … Armenia’s opposition parties gave Pashinyan an ultimatum to resign … [H]e has ignored the demand, defending the peace deal as … bitter but necessary …. 44 days of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nagorno-Karabakh conflict killed 5,000 soldiers” – BBC

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Azerbaijan made significant territorial gains but gave no casualty numbers, while Armenia said last month it had counted 2,425 dead soldiers. Now Azerbaijan says 2,783 of its forces died in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and another 100 are missing in action. It brings to over 5,000 the number of soldiers confirmed to have died. At least 143 civilians were also […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Urges Post-Soviet Allies to Support Embattled Armenian PM” – Moscow Times

Armenia Map and Flag

… Putin has urged fellow members of a post-Soviet military bloc to support Armenia’s prime minister as he grapples with domestic pressure over … a Moscow-brokered peace deal with Azerbaijan […]

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Armenians See Russia As ‘Savior’ Not ‘Scapegoat’ In Nagorno-Karabakh War

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Ron Synovitz – Nov. 24, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/armenians-see-russia-as-savior-not-scapegoat-in-nagorno-karabakh-war/30966988.html) As war raged this autumn over Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, some Armenians expressed a sense of betrayal that long-standing ally Russia wasn’t providing more support to ethnic Armenian fighters in the conflict. But any […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “In Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal, Russia’s Putin claims a strategic win. But risks are attached” – Washington Post / Robyn Dixon

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Under the cease-fire, nearly 2,000 [Russian] peacekeepers have been deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist enclave controlled by an ethnic Armenian government within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. … reinforc[ing] the Kremlin’s view that its sphere of influence includes Azerbaijan and Armenia …. [and providing] another counterweight to geopolitical rival[] Turkey, a close Azerbaijan ally and key customer for […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Peace, for now; A peace deal ends a bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh; Azerbaijan wins some land, while Turkey and Russia carve out spheres of influence” – The Economist

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“Brokered by Russia and Turkey …. [t]he peace deal marks one of the biggest shake-ups in a turbulent region at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East since the collapse of the Soviet empire, which also began in Nagorno-Karabakh. … [A]fter 25 years of waiting for the return of its territory, Azerbaijan went back to war. … aided […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Caucasus ceasefire cements Turkey as a power in Russia’s backyard; Azerbaijan-Armenia truce underlines new regional balance between Moscow and Ankara” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy, Laura Pitel

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… a six-week-long conflict with Armenia over … Nagorno-Karabakh … resulted in major gains for Azerbaijan and its Turkish-backed military …. A truce … freezes the conflict … includ[ing] agreements that [Russian ally] Armenia … must hand over additional land …. While the truce was brokered by Moscow — which has deployed [nearly 2,000] peacekeepers — … Azerbaijan’s success with […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia ‘Open’ to Return of Armenia-Held Land to Azerbaijan – Putin” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Oct. 30, 2020) Russia is open to Azerbaijan reclaiming seven areas surrounding the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenia has controlled for 26 years, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday. Azerbaijani forces have been making gains against Armenian separatist fighters since the heaviest fighting since a 1994 ceasefire over the South Caucasus region erupted last month. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Nagorno-Karabakh Briefing – Oct. 30” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Oct. 30, 2020) Azerbaijani forces were closing in on the key town of Shusha on Thursday evening – the capture of which could transform the conflict at a time when analysts fear a “war of attrition” could be about to set in as winter approaches the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region. Meanwhile talks in Geneva will attempt […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/ Paul Stronski

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“With the United States shrugging off its erstwhile role as the world’s policeman, can anyone stop the fierce fighting now raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan?” “… The long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, … dat[ing] to the waning days of the Soviet Union, is not going to trigger a global war[] [n]or … affect … [great power] vital interests […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Reported death toll in Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes about 600” – AP

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“The reported death toll in clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over … Nagorno-Karabakh has reached about 600 … [F]ighting continues despite a cease-fire …. More than two weeks of deadly clashes marked the biggest escalation of a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh … in Azerbaijan but … under control of ethnic Armenian[s] … backed by Armenia since the end of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Loses His Footing in Russia’s Backyard” – Wall Street Journal/ Thomas Grove

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“Washington has watched Russia expand its global influence, but along its borders, Moscow is losing its monopoly on power.” “… Putin has long tried to strengthen economic and defense relations across Eastern Europe and Central Asia …. Russia still has military bases in Central Asia and the South Caucasus … [T]here are strong commercial and cultural ties …. But … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Security Guarantees for Armenia Don’t Extend to Karabakh, Putin Says” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

Russia’s commitments to Armenia as part of a Moscow-led regional security bloc do not include the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region where fighting is raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan … Putin said […]

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Armenia-Azerbaijan War: Military Dimensions of the Conflict

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Michael Kofman – Oct. 2, 2020) Michael Kofman is a senior research scientist and director of the Russia Studies program at CNA. On Sept. 27, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive, resulting in fighting that spans much of the line of contact in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de facto occupied by Armenia. As of […]

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RUSSIALINK: “What Is Russia’s Role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict?” – Moscow Times

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Sept. 28, 2020) At least 39 troops and civilians have been killed over the past two days in the worst clashes between foes Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2016. Fighting between the ex-Soviet republics over a decades-long territorial dispute threatens to embroil regional players Russia and Turkey. The United States, Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. and Russia have a rare opportunity to work together on a peace deal” – Washington Post/ David Ignatius

Map of Armenia and Environs

“… Russia and the United States … are co-chairs of a group … seeking to broker a peace deal [addressing] …. the long-frozen standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan … with roots in ethnic and territorial disputes which this month became a hot war with barrages of artillery …. a rare convergence of interest between Russia and the United States, two […]

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Is This The Most Important Geopolitical Deal Of 2018?

(Oilprice.com – Olgu Okumus – August 13, 2018 – oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Is-This-The-Most-Important-Geopolitical-Deal-Of-2018.html) The two-decade-long dispute on the statute of the Caspian Sea, the world largest water reserve, came to an end last Sunday when five littoral states (Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan) agreed to give it a special legal status – it is now neither a sea, nor a lake. Before […]

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NEWSWATCH: “The Front Line Drawn Across Russia’s Backyard” – Stratfor

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Globalization has changed how we think about time, space and distance, but geography is still the same where it counts: national security. … former Soviet states lining Russia’s border know this better than most … their proximity to the eastern giant renders them more vulnerable to Moscow’s hybrid warfare …. Nations like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova sit on the front line of […]

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On 25 years of postmodernity in the South Caucasus

A quarter century since the collapse of Soviet rule in Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, where is the region now and what can come next? (opendemocracy.net – Georgi Derlugian – October 4, 2016) Georgi Derluguian, in his earlier life a Soviet-trained Africanist, studies the evolution of human societies along with practicing expeditionary fieldwork. Among his books are Bourdieu’s Secret Admirer in […]

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Russia Says Armenian-Azeri Peace Deal Is Closer Than Ever

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Zulfugar Agayev, Sara Khojoyan – July 12, 2016) Russia is taking the lead in ramping up international efforts to end the conflict between Azeris and Armenians over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh after the worst outbreak of fighting in more than 20 years. “We have reasons to believe that we’re much closer now to success than ever […]

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How Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Could Spark Major International Crisis

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – April 7, 2016) Springtime in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is predictable enough. As sure as the plane trees begin to flower, skirmishes break out between Azeri and Armenian troops. On April 2, however, the typically short-lasting, day-long ritual morphed into the makings of a serious international crisis. Armenia and Azerbaijan have […]

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De Waal: Kremlin ‘Not Primary Actor’ Behind Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Arzu Geybullayeva – April 4, 2016) A noted Western expert on the Caucasus says tensions between Azerbaijanis and Armenians over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh make their dispute one of the most menacing unresolved conflicts from the time the Soviet Union was breaking up in the early 1990s. But Thomas de Waal, a senior associate with Carnegie […]

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Russian expert: Karabakh conflict to go back to frozen state

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Interfax – April 5, 2016) The ongoing outbreak of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh will not spark a full-scale armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and complex and problem-ridden negotiations in which Moscow traditionally plays a mediating role are likely to resume, Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, has said. “The transformation of current […]

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Interfax: Half of Russians back independence of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdniestria

Georgia Beach in Abkhazia Region

(Interfax – September 21, 2015) Half of Russians deem Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be independent states and think that these republics and Transdniestria should have formal independent status, the Levada Center has told Interfax. According to the poll of 800 respondents held in 134 populated localities in 46 regions on August 21-24, practically half (47 percent) of respondents see […]

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Nagorno-Karabakh: Crimea’s doppelganger

Map of Armenia and Environs

(opendemocracy.net – Thomas de Waal – June 13, 2014) Thomas de Waal is a senior associate for the Caucasus at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) in Washington. He is the author of The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2010). His earlier books include Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus (NYU Press, 1999) – with Carlotta Gall; and Black […]

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South Caucasus states shun Moscow’s influence

Tblisi, Georgia, file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yuri Simonyan, special to RBTH – May 3, 2014) When it comes to its relations with former Soviet republics in the Caucasus, Moscow has a delicate balancing act to play. It’s virtually impossible for Russia to play the role of a mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh, but at the same time, […]

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Presumption of innocence violated in Biryulyovo murder suspect’s case – Azeri Foreign Ministry

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Interfax – BAKU, October 17, 2013) Azerbaijan’s Embassy in Moscow has lodged a protest with the Russian Foreign Ministry over what it called violations of the rights of Azeri native Orkhan Zeynalov, who is suspected of killing ethnic Russian man Yegor Shcherbakov in the Biryulyovo district in southern Moscow. “The brutal detention and brutal treatment of Orkhan Zeynalov, whom they […]

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Azeri Presidential Election Shows the Power of Oil

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – October 10, 2013) Ilham Aliyev was headed to win Wednesday’s presidential election in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, in what some analysts say is the perfect demonstration of how oil revenues can strengthen a country’s leader both domestically and internationally. During the decade that Aliyev ruled the country after succeeding his […]

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Putin’s Visit to Baku Highlights Russia’s ‘Clout’

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – August 14, 2013) President Vladimir Putin met with his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku on Tuesday in what proved to be a fruitful visit, but one which led some to express caution about Russia’s influence in the republic. The visit came just a few weeks before presidential elections are set to […]

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Putin to Bolster Ties With Azerbaijan During One-Day Visit

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(RIA Novosti – MOSCOW, August 13, 2013) ­ Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a one-day working visit to Azerbaijan to discuss a wide range of bilateral issues, including trade, energy and transportation, a presidential aide said. The talks are expected to result in the signing of several agreements, including a document on cooperation between emergencies ministries. “The presidents will […]

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Five Years After The War, South Caucasus Still Caught Between Russia, The West

Map of Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Environs Including Portions of Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Iran, Caspian Sea

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Robert Coalson – August 7, 2013) Azerbaijan is arming to the teeth. Armenia is growing increasingly disillusioned with Russia, its main protector. And the potential for armed conflict in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region appears higher than it has been in years. The increased tensions surrounding the Armenian-controlled separatist enclave inside Azerbaijan — where there have been […]

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