JRL NEWSWATCH: “Leadership Change in Russia: Contingency Planning Memorandum” – Council on Foreign Relations: Liana Fix, Maria Snegovaya
“Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.”
“… Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 … Putin looked set to stay in power for as long as he wanted. Under a series of [2020] constitutional amendments … he can stay in office until 2036, when he will be eighty-three …. [T]he war against Ukraine has turned into a stress test for Russia’s leadership and regime stability. The Kremlin has stabilized the political system after [Prigozhin’s Wagner Group] mutiny … and Putin remains popular (to the extent that approval ratings are meaningful in an autocratic society). However, internal Russian elite politics and competition are difficult to decipher from the outside and can lead to unexpected outcomes and surprising reshuffles. The Kremlin could be hoping to outlast U.S. and Western support for Ukraine, which appears less steadfast than once assumed, and to relieve internal pressure by presenting the war as turning its way. Yet domestic tensions are unlikely to disappear. The Russian economy will remain under strain … mak[ing] tensions and elite power struggles more probable. Putin could still leave office sooner …. [T]he United States and its allies should anticipate the possibility of [Russian] leadership change … prepare to mitigate its harmful consequences, and manage its conceivable opportunities. … The United States and … allies should start planning for potential [Russian] leadership change … identifying more and less favorable scenarios and ways to indirectly influence the outcome in line with U.S. interests. They should begin discussions … to develop a strategy for different types of … successors …. A retrenchment scenario could offer opportunities for Ukraine and Russia-West relations … [R]isks of … radicalization or … fragmentation … need to be mitigated. If the United States fails to develop a contingency plan with its allies, it risks unnecessary division and delayed response. …”
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