2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community [Excerpt re: Russia]

DNI Seal and Smaller Seals of Agencies Related to DNI

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence March 11, 2024 Director Avril D. Haines Office of the Director of National Intelligence 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community [Excerpt] [PDF: intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclassified_2024_ata_report_0.pdf] RUSSIA Regional and Global Activities Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in enormous damage at home and abroad, but Russia remains a resilient and capable adversary across […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 26-March 4, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s resilience to sanctions shows it is ‘costly and unattainable’ to isolate a large and globally integrated economy, economist says” – Business Insider

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russia’s economy remains resilient against Western sanctions. Economist Elina Ribakova wrote about the limitations of trying to isolate a globally integrated economy like Russia. The West’s experience sanctioning Russia could help in crafting potential future trade restrictions against China.” “Despite sweeping … sanctions over … Ukraine, Russia posted … GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. […]

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The War in Ukraine in a Transitional World Order

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Robert Legvold – Feb. 23, 2024) Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus in the department of political science at Columbia University. The fundamental questions raised by the war in Ukraine are like the two sides of a coin: on one side, there is the overarching but largely ignored question of how the war […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike” – Financial Times

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“Doctrine for tactical nuclear weapons outlined in training scenarios for an invasion by China” “… Putin’s forces have rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons at an early stage of conflict with a major world power, according to leaked Russian military files that include training scenarios for an invasion by China. The [29 secret Russian military files from 2008 to 2014] … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia-Ukraine War: China’s Vanishing Neutrality” – The Diplomat

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Full Chinese logistical support for Russia could be the real game changer of the war – and that support is growing more important and less discreet.” “… [T]he United States continues to suspect China of selling arms to Russia …. [M]ilitary aid from China would represent a change of scale [compared with North Korea] … because of the stocks China […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia no longer perceived as top security threats, research finds” – CNBC

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“China and Russia are considered less of a threat to Western populations now than a year ago, according to a new study which points to rising concern around non-traditional risks. Mass migration due to war or climate change and the rise of radical Islam now rank among the top perceived risks among G7 countries. The majority of respondents in Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Seeks Revenge on a World Order He Once Wanted to Join” – Bloomberg

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“The KGB agent turned warlord president has shaped Russia with resentment and force. As Donald Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies if he returns to the White House, Putin’s poised to take advantage.” “… Putin is attempting to strike his own decisive blow against the U.S. and Europe to reshape [the] global order to Russia’s advantage … backed by military […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “National Security Expert Fiona Hill Says Russia ‘Will Always Matter’ at HKS Event” – The Harvard Crimson

Redacted File Photo of Fiona Hill, adapted form image at seanmaloney.house.gov

“…Hosted by Russia Matters — a project at the HKS Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs that publishes analysis on U.S.-Russia relations — [an] event [featuring Fiona Hill ] was moderated by former HKS Dean Graham T. Allison ’62 and former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Paula J. Dobriansky. Hill, the former senior director on Russia and […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 5-12, 2024

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT  reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]

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Peeling Away the Layers of Russian Foreign Policy

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 87 – William E. Pomeranz – January 2024) William Pomeranz is the Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine is fast approaching its two-year anniversary, with no end in sight. Russia continues to put on a brave face on this military and economic quagmire,[1] with Prime […]

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Russia in Review, Dec. 21, 2023-Jan. 5, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia exports almost all its oil to China and India – Novak” – Reuters

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 27-Dec. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A new nuclear arms race is here: How to slow it down” – Washington Post

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“The world is entering a dangerous nuclear arms race … but it does not have to end in catastrophe. Treaties controlling nuclear arms — verifiable and binding, to limit or reduce stockpiles and prevent miscalculation or error — can lead to more stability. They require political will … that does not exist today. The new factor is China … aspir[ing] […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 9-17, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia cast U.S. as agent of global instability at military forum” – Washington Post

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Chinese and Russian military officials on Monday criticized the United States as an agent of global instability … Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, … threatened grave consequences over Western involvement in the war in Ukraine. … Shoigu made the remarks at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China’s annual international military summit … [China’s] second-highest-ranked military official, Zhang Youxia, also issued oblique […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China’s Xi Doubles Down on Belt and Road as Path to New World Order” – WSJ

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Chinese and Russian leaders tout trillion-dollar initiative as a model for international cooperation at summit in Beijing, but Western leaders weren’t there to hear it.” “… [O]ne war raging in Ukraine … another unfolding in the Middle East …Xi Jinping is promoting his signature foreign-policy project as a force for unity, cooperation and prosperity around the globe. At a summit […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What to watch for at Xi’s meeting with Putin” – Reuters

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… [F]ive things to watch for … DEFENCE BOSSES … Defence Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for more than six weeks …. For China, Russia is … a rich potential source of technology as the People’s Liberation Army … seeks to modernise … WEAPONS FOR WAR? … The United States has warned China against sending … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China” – Wall Street Journal

Israel Map, adapted from cdc.gov image

“Moscow and Beijing seek to ride the wave of solidarity with Palestinians while taking advantage of American distraction” “The war between Israel and Hamas … is also affecting the global balance of power, stretching American and European resources while relieving pressure on Russia and providing new opportunities to China. … [F]or now, the war launched by Hamas on Oct. 7 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia, report says” – Reuters

Pentagon Aerial View adapted from defense.gov image, with photo credit: DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. John Wright

“The United States must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Russia and China by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernization program, a congressionally appointed bipartisan [Strategic Posture Commission] said …. The panel accepted a Pentagon forecast that China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion likely will give it 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, confronting the United […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. ‘ill-prepared’ for nuclear challenge from China and Russia, says report” – Financial Times

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Commission urges overhaul of US arsenal to tackle growing threat from two peer adversaries” “The U.S. must expand or restructure its nuclear arsenal to tackle the ‘existential challenge’ posed by the growing nuclear threat from China and existing risk from Russia, a new report … has said. The bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S., … tasked […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 29-Oct. 6, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Putin has shot down proposals to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in Russia’s doctrinal documents, but called for Russia to de-ratify the CTBT. When asked by Sergei Karaganov at the Valdai Club meeting on Oct. 5 whether Russia should “modify the doctrine on using nuclear weapons, lowering the nuclear threshold,” Putin said: “[T]here […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Western Firms Continue to Dominate Russian Market in 2023 – Forbes” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

(Moscow Times – Oct. 2, 2023) U.S., French and German corporations continued to dominate the Russian market in 2023 despite the Western business exodus sparked by the war in Ukraine, according to Forbes Russia’s list of the 50 largest foreign companies in the country. [forbes.ru/biznes/497010-50-krupnejsih-inostrannyh-kompanij-v-rossii-2023-rejting-forbes] The latest ranking, which also saw Chinese companies gain ground, reflects the major geopolitical shifts […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 15-22, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 22, 2023) 7 Things to Know Ukraine intends to continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, according to remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley this week. “The fight right now still has plenty of fighting weather left,” according to Gen. Milley. At the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO Chief Says Weakening Russia Will Help U.S. Focus on Challenging China” – Newsweek

Jens Stoltenberg file photo adapted from defense.gov image

“[NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg] asserted … [Thursday] that weakening Russia in Ukraine could allow the United States to intensify … efforts … countering China. … Stoltenberg said … the primary goal of his visit [to New York during a UN General Assembly meeting] ‘[was] to mobilize support for Ukraine.’ A victory for Kyiv … resisting the war launched by Moscow […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 8-15, 2023

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “West Fails to Peel Russia’s Friends Away to Ukraine’s Side” – WSJ

File Photo of UN Building with Flags

“Many emerging economies remain reluctant to take sides in the war.” “… Western countries still haven’t swung the developing world behind supporting Kyiv. Europe, Ukraine and the U.S. have successfully orchestrated several United Nations votes condemning Russia’s invasion. … [and] have started talks with dozens of other countries on … a fair peace settlement …. However, many of the biggest […]

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Levada: Majority of Russians View Their Country, China as ‘Great,’ But Not U.S., Its Allies

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – Sept. 13, 2023) The Levada Center has just released the latest installment in its series of polls on which countries Russians consider to be “great” as well as on their general attitudes toward certain countries. The polls show that the share of Russians who view their own country as great has almost […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee chair calls Russia-China alliance the biggest threat since WWII” – AP

American Flag and Partial View of U.S. Capitol Dome, adapted from image at aoc.gov

“The chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee said Friday [that regarding] a partnership between the Russian and Chinese leaders … ‘We have never seen a threat this large scale to Europe and the Pacific … since World War II.’ An alliance between … Xi Jinping and … Putin ‘provides a very big challenge I think for the free […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Booming Trade With China Helps Boost Russia’s War Effort” – WSJ

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Chinese exports to its neighbor have risen sharply, as Beijing sends everything from microchips to trench-digging excavators.” “China is playing an increasingly important role … propping up Russia’s economy and helping boost its war effort … [T]rade data show[s] Beijing providing a range of goods, including some with potential military applications such as microchips and trench-digging excavators. China has become […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Xi and BRICS Allies See Chance to Shake Up World Order” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Dozens of nations have lined up to become members of BRICS.” “… The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will use an annual leaders’ summit in Johannesburg … to begin the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global heft, a push driven mainly by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also backed by Russia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Following Xi’s lead? Russia takes closer look at Chinese ideology.” – Christian Science Monitor

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Is Russia’s future aligned with China? Many in Moscow think so, seeing the two countries’ visions aligning not just geopolitically, but also ideologically – though it may cost Russia considerably.” “… Russia’s turn toward Asia, and China in particular, has been greatly accelerated by souring relations with the West …. Western sanctions [have] made it a matter of urgent necessity […]

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Russia in Review, Aug. 11-18, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, thus, remaining unable to disrupt the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, WP reported, citing “people familiar with the classified forecast.” The assessment is based on Russia’s proficiency in defending occupied territory,  which […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Backdoor Negotiations Over Ukraine Would Be a Disaster” – Foreign Policy/ Ben Lefkowitz

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Mediation offers from China aren’t made in good faith.” “Skyrocketing costs for fuel and food in the global south due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are spurring mediation offers … from China, the African Union, and even Saudi Arabia. … Secretary of State Antony Blinken has welcomed these initiatives … to woo support from countries that have not condemned Russia […]

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Russia in Review, July 28-Aug. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know In the past month of fighting Russian armed forces made a net gain of 14 square miles, according to the estimate by the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force. Their research shows that the period saw Russian forces gain 43 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine’s net gain was 29 square miles, according to the Aug. 1, 2023 issue […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The west must match Russia and China in the dark arts of the grey zone” – Financial Times

Satellite

“Traditional military power will not be enough to win the Ukraine war or the larger struggle over the global order.” “… Are cyber attacks, disinformation and influence campaigns still relevant? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes.’ Ukraine is but a single front in a [global conflict] … over what is and is not permissible in international relations. … [T]he war […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “America’s Military Trails Russia and China in Race for the Melting Arctic” – WSJ

Alaska, Bering Strait, Arctic Satellite Photo, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“U.S. is competing with a partnership between the two countries but has fewer icebreakers and ports, and less experience” “… [I]n the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming … in a double line near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. … [T]he main Chinese ship [was] the Nanchang, one of a new […]

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