JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Beginning of the End for Putin? Prigozhin’s Rebellion Ended Quickly, but It Spells Trouble for the Kremlin” – Foreign Affairs/ Liana Fix, Michael Kimmage
“… [Recent] events … portend a dark future for Russia. In a few short hours, Prigozhin’s armed rebellion generated enormous chaos. The war has stretched Russian state capacity thin … [T]he revolt has stretched it still further, presenting … a new domestic challenge. For years, the Kremlin has devised ways to head off a [cosmopolitan,] liberal, urban revolution. … [T]he greater threat was an illiberal … highly militarized populist uprising driven … by Russian nationalists. [T]op-down nationalism cultivated in the war could cut against the Putin regime … Prigozhin may not be the last of his kind. Prigozhin has proven that the fortress of Putinism can be assaulted. … [E]lites’ expressions of loyalty to Putin were near uniform[] but … remarkably flat. … [C]annier actors might learn from Prigozhin, melding … populism with a political program that has some purchase beyond mutinous mercenaries … that might attract a cadre within the Russian elite …. connected to the security services. … [M]otivations might be the spoils of power, a perception of Putin’s weakness, or a fear of a coming purge. If Putin seems destined to be toppled, then there is an incentive to be the one who topples him [] or at least … be close to that person. There is a comparable disincentive to wait, especially if Putin is bent on exacting revenge. .. Prigozhin’s rapid advance on Moscow could inspire other potential warlords or … disruptive political entrepreneurs seeking local advantage … [not] strong enough to unseat the tsar in Moscow but … eager to chip away at the power and prestige of the state. The consequences could paralyze the government and weaken Russia’s military position in Ukraine. … Prigozhin went from criticism of the war’s execution to criticism of the war’s purpose. What has now been said in the open — that a botched war may be an existential threat to Russia’s pride but not to Russia itself — cannot be unsaid. …”
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