JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why the War Will Continue: One year in, the war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending.” – Council on Foreign Relations/ Richard Haass
“… Putin’s calculation that the benefits of invading would dwarf the costs became a formula for disaster. Putin now finds himself playing for time. Unable to defeat Ukraine’s military, he is attacking economic and civilian targets, hoping to break the will of Ukrainians. … [and perhaps hoping that] European governments … [and] the U.S.[] rethink the costs of supporting Ukraine. … [T]he war has hardened hearts. Russian atrocities, including bombing apartment buildings and executing civilians, has led to calls for reparations and war-crimes tribunals. … [and, for some,] the removal of Putin and his inner circle … seen by many as essential if Ukraine is … to have confidence in any peace settlement. In short, the conditions are far from ripe for diplomacy. … [T]he war may well become less intense as both sides face the difficulty of sustaining the magnitude of losses …. lack[ing] the [needed] manpower, equipment, and economic resources …. It also seems unlikely that Russia will … escalate. Attacking NATO makes no sense when … Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine. Nuclear weapons seem to have little or no military value, and both China and India have made clear their opposition to their use. … Russia’s use of nuclear weapons … would almost certainly bring U.S. and NATO troops directly into the war. The bad news, though, is that the war will not end anytime soon….”