JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Announces the Total Withdrawal of Its Troops From Nagorno-Karabakh” – Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies

“On 17 April 2024, Russia announced the withdrawal of its peacekeeping forces from Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. This surprise announcement means … the troops will leave one and half years before the formal end of their mandate … amid crucial developments in the [South Caucasus] power balance …. [F]ollowing Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequent exodus of Karabakh Armenians … [the Russian peacekeepers] no longer served a formal purpose … Azerbaijan had effectively ended the conflict, and there are now almost no Armenians left in Karabakh to protect. However, informally, for Russia they fulfilled the same role as all other Russian military presences in post-Soviet countries … a useful Russian instrument to pressure or influence the host government. … [W]ithdrawal of peacekeeping forces is a sign of the degradation of Russian power in the South Caucasus following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine …. Moscow’s voluntary relinquishment of an important tool to pressure Baku is a significant development, potentially indicating that Russia has either received something in return, or has become so dependent on Azerbaijan that its hand is being forced, or a combination of both factors.”

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