JRL NEWSWATCH: “Coming to Terms” – Harpers: George Beebe, Anatol Lieven
“… [I]t is increasingly clear that the Ukrainian army is not capable of reconquering … territories lost to Russia … [W]ithout continued and massive Western aid, the Ukrainians will suffer eventual defeat owing to Russia’s huge economic and demographic superiority, and … such aid cannot be guaranteed. Sanctions have not cratered Russia’s economy or crippled its war effort. Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the war’s first year and pursued an attrition strategy … steadily exhausting Ukraine’s supply of fighters, emptying Western weapons stockpiles, and sapping U.S. and European political patience. Current trends are pointing not toward a lasting stalemate but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse. The United States should seek negotiations …. [S]oldiers on the front lines speak of back-to-back deployments, falling numbers of troops, declining supplies of ammunition, and apparently inexhaustible Russian reserves. Western aid should therefore be continued, as the alternative is likely to be a situation in which Russia will dictate … terms of a settlement. … [T]his aid should also be envisioned not … to secure victory but as a source of leverage in negotiations. The only viable terms for such a compromise are that Russia abandons its hopes of conquering more Ukrainian territory and reducing the whole of Ukraine to a client state — and in return, the West meets Russia’s basic concerns about its own security and provides a path toward … normal economic relations. …”