JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/ Paul Stronski

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

“With the United States shrugging off its erstwhile role as the world’s policeman, can anyone stop the fierce fighting now raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan?”

“… The long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, … dat[ing] to the waning days of the Soviet Union, is not going to trigger a global war[] [n]or … affect … [great power] vital interests …. [y]et … [does] … spotlight … the unraveling post-Cold War world …. The United States and the European regional powers … previously … protect[ing] these arrangements are … pulling back, along with the multilateral institutions they lead. … no longer displaying much unity of purpose when it comes to emerging powers, like Russia and Turkey … want[ing] … a bigger role …. Europe is also distracted by its own problems: … coronavirus … the threat of a no-deal Brexit … tensions … in the Eastern Mediterranean. Europe’s recent track record of conflict resolution (in the Central African Republic, Georgia, Libya, and Ukraine) offers little hope ….

For more than a decade, Russia proclaimed … the South Caucasus … part of its privileged sphere of influence, warning the West to steer clear. … rejected outright by the United States and its European allies …. As an array of economic energy and political links blossomed, the Kremlin largely stood by, as it had relatively few competitive advantages in these areas.

… Russia has sold weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, [yet] it appears … strong diplomatic backing and military support from outside powers (… Turkey[] and … Israel) are making a big difference for Azerbaijan in the current fighting, … the worst since the early 1990s. Azerbaijani forces are able to draw upon armed drones, long-range artillery …, and the reported deployment of U.S.-made Turkish F-16s to Azerbaijan and hundreds of Syrian mercenaries. …”

Click here for: “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Is a Bad Omen; With the United States shrugging off its erstwhile role as the world’s policeman, can anyone stop the fierce fighting now raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/ Paul Stronski