JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Real Russian Nuclear Threat: The West Is Worried About the Wrong Escalation Risks” – Foreign Affairs/ Peter Schroeder
“… The advent of the war triggered fears of outright nuclear conflict between the West and Russia. That period of somewhat frenzied speculation has passed. The war has since settled into a grinding—but conventional—stalemate. To be sure, U.S. officials are still concerned that Russia may use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. … The unfortunate truth is that Washington cannot deter Putin from escalating to the point where he uses nuclear weapons because of the war in Ukraine. Although he would not take such escalation lightly or dismiss the serious risks for Russia, Putin would anticipate that he could win the war of wills in a nuclear crisis. … Nuclear brinkmanship is a dangerous game, particularly with an authoritarian leader such as Putin. This is no time for complacency. For the world to head off nuclear war, countries will have to persuade Moscow that victory in Ukraine is simply not worth the costs of bringing the world to the precipice — or over it.”