“The trial and conviction of an activist in the Ural Mountains region sparked one of the biggest outbreaks of social unrest since the start of the war.” “The trial of a minority rights activist in Russia … sparked one of [Russia’s] biggest outbreaks of social unrest … since the start of the [Russo-Ukrainian] war … highlighting the strain … on […]
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“Shipping lanes are under pressure. Seven of the world’s ten biggest shipping companies have suspended transit through the Red Sea, where the Houthis … are attacking commercial vessels [with the result that] …. far fewer ships are using the Suez Canal …. The volume of trade passing through the Panama Canal … has declined by 30% … after severe drought […]
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“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]
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“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]
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“No grounds for arms-control talks with U.S., Lavrov says Russia accuses U.S. of escalating confrontation over Ukraine” “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed the U.S. over … Ukraine and warned on the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers … [while] rul[ing] out … discussions on strategic security …. He accused the U.S. and … European allies of escalating … confrontation […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 871 – Tetyana Malyarenko, Stefan Wolff – Jan. 12, 2024 – click here for PDF) Part 2. Wartime Mediation This memo is the second in a two-part assessment of the effectiveness of mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian war during its gray-zone (2014-2022) and conventional (2022-present) stages. Read Part 1 here There is growing support for the […]
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“ABOARD A FRENCH AIR FORCE AWACS … Off in the distance, Ukraine, fighting for its survival. Seen from up here, in the cockpit of a French air force surveillance plane flying over neighboring Romania, the snow-dusted landscapes look deceptively peaceful. … Circling on auto-pilot at 34,000 feet … the plane … fed intelligence in real time to ground-based commanders. Its […]
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“… When asked, [in] rapid-fire questions, about his most difficult … negotiations, [Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro] Kuleba said: ‘The most difficult talks are those in which you feel simply that you want to go and punch your opposite number in the nose, but you really can’t do that. … [T]his occurred two or three times. One occasion was with Lavrov […]
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“What seemed at first to be the start of a Third World War has turned out to be more akin to a Second Yugoslav War: a local conflict on the edge of Europe triggered by a slow-motion imperial collapse.” “Throughout 2022, Europe was in shock. … Russia, owner of the continent’s most powerful armed forces, really was capable of sending […]
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“… Putin … fac[es] a deluge of domestic difficulties as Moscow’s military struggles nearly two years after invading Ukraine. Putin … has been the focus of … increasing … criticism … over issues that include inflation, winter blackouts and the treatment of soldiers in Ukraine. Despite … recent … relentless Russian air and ground attacks against Ukraine, Moscow has seen […]
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“If the White House demands that Kyiv hold Russia at bay rather than reconquer its own lands, it must also provide the armor and ammo.” “Speaking to … Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will deliver a message from … Joe Biden. The White House wants Ukraine to change […]
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” …[A]uthors such as Tolstoy and Dostoevsky still rule the canon of Russian literature. But … Anastasia Edel, … author of Russia: Putin’s Playground: Empire, Revolution, and the New Tsar, … suggests … readers who want to comprehend Putin’s Russia look to Chevengur, an epic account of the Russian Revolution, written in 1929 by … Soviet writer Andrey Platonov. His […]
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(Voice of America – voanews.com – Jan. 16, 2024) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of “strong enduring support for Ukraine” and a determination on the part of the Biden administration to continue military aid for Ukrainian forces. Blinken’s comments came at the start of talks Tuesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum […]
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“Men older than 27 are eligible for conscription — and President Zelensky wants to lower that age to 25 as casualties mount in the war with Russia.” “… Under Ukraine’s martial law … men between … 18 and 60 are forbidden from leaving the country without special exemption. … Though the war still has the backing of most Ukrainians, the […]
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“The war in Ukraine is starting to dictate its own rules to Putin. The president and his inner circle are being forced to submit to the new wartime reality that they themselves created.” “… Just like Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the presidential election is influencing domestic political trends and changing Russia. The Kremlin can … build a digital gulag […]
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“Oligarchs have lost billions from the shelling of their factories, and the government has used its wartime powers to break their political influence.” “… [T]he war, by ravaging Ukrainian industry, [reportedly] has curbed … the country’s so-called oligarchs, tycoons … reign[ing] over the economy … [using] … wealth to buy political influence …. In the war’s first year, the total […]
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“Wars of attrition, … what large-scale conflicts between militarily sophisticated adversaries such as Russia and Ukraine tend to become, are usually decided by … the better arms industry. Russia’s economy is nearly 14 times the size of Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are so much greater that it should be able to win. … Both America and […]
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(Moscow Times – Jan. 15, 2024) Alcohol dependency in Russia has increased for the first time in 10 years, Russia’s business daily Kommersant reported Monday, citing data from the state statistics agency Rosstat. In the decade between 2010 and 2021, first-time alcohol use disorder diagnoses declined from 153,900 to 53,300. But in 2022, doctors issued 54,200 first-time diagnoses of alcohol […]
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“In an interview with ‘Le Monde,’ the general asserts that the Ukrainian incursions into Crimea are just the ‘beginning.’ He also admits to a certain war-weariness among the population, and considers the shortage of soldiers to be ‘significant, but not alarming.’” “… Kyrylo Budanov, 38, [is] head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service (GUR) … one of the few Ukrainian […]
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“Leaders of talks on … Zelenskyy’s peace formula … said a growing number of countries are working to help set the groundwork for Russia to join one day, a[] … distant goal as the nearly two-year war grinds on [with] neither side willing to cede ground. The fourth such meeting of national security advisers takes place in … Davos, where […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]
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“The report found that American officials and diplomats had failed to quickly or fully account for all of the nearly 40,000 weapons sent to the front.” “More than $1 billion worth of shoulder-fired missiles, kamikaze drones and night-vision goggles … sent [by the United States] to Ukraine have not been properly tracked by American officials, a new [DOD Inspector General] […]
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“[Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council] warned … Thursday that … Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia with arms supplied by the United States and its allies would risk a nuclear response from Moscow … [also saying] that some Ukrainian military commanders were considering hitting missile launch sites inside Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles. … Putin […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – Jan. 11, 2024) Since December, my colleagues at Russia Matters and I have been monitoring1 how Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have sparred over who should assume prime responsibility for the plan to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. As we watched the two employ what Sun Tzu would […]
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“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]
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“Sullivan likely to raise strategy issue with Ukraine leader Tensions seen as war heads into third year with aid stalled” “The U.S. wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia’s invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with … in Davos … and continue to push the point in the […]
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(oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Jan. 10, 2024) Drilling at Russia’s oil production wells likely beat a post-Soviet record in 2023, according to industry data Bloomberg has seen — evidence that the Western sanctions haven’t affected drilling rates much, especially at brownfields. Russia is estimated to have drilled oil production wells with a total depth of 28,100 kilometers (17,460 miles) […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 87 – William E. Pomeranz – January 2024) William Pomeranz is the Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine is fast approaching its two-year anniversary, with no end in sight. Russia continues to put on a brave face on this military and economic quagmire,[1] with Prime […]
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“… Ukraine has mastered the production of short-range drones, which both sides have used extensively throughout the war. Now Ukraine is stepping up the development of drones that can strike more distant targets in Russia, Crimea and the Black Sea. These attacks typically involve around a dozen drones, often accompanying cruise missiles. Since December Ukraine has carried out some attacks […]
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“In 2024, the most decisive fight may also be the least visible: Russia and Ukraine will spend the next twelve months in a race to reconstitute and resupply their forces.” “… This year is likely to be marked by … missile and rocket fire rather than dramatic, large-scale maneuver warfare. … [T]he most decisive fight may also be the least […]
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“… Israelis and Palestinians have been battling for more than 50 years without gaining lasting security. Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine began as a fever dream of … Putin. He failed to conquer Kyiv … but the bloody war of attrition has cost Russia an … 320,000 casualties and Ukraine … 170,000 to 190,000. The biggest national security question for […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]
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“Funding for more weapons and ammunition is held up in fight over border policy; ‘We’re out of money’” “The Washington stalemate over U.S. [border] policy … is … reverberat[ing] on the Ukraine battlefield, where Kyiv’s troops are running out of ammunition and the Pentagon says it can’t provide more without emptying its own arsenal. … [T]he Pentagon has run out […]
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“Investigators hope Warsaw’s new government will shed light on gas-pipeline attack after previous administration’s reluctance to disclose potentially crucial evidence.” “Polish officials have resisted cooperating with an international probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines and failed to disclose potentially crucial evidence, according to European investigators …. [They reportedly] have been slow to provide information and withheld […]
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“The country’s forces along a broad stretch of the front say that, with Russia pushing forward, the war has never been so dangerous.” “… Ukrainian troops along most of the 600-mile front … are officially in defensive mode. Only in the southern region of Kherson are they still on the offensive … across the Dnipro River. … [F]ighting has not […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]
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“A government-approved news program intended to counter Russian disinformation and boost morale is coming under criticism for painting a rosy picture of the war.” “Since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the people of Ukraine have had access to a single source of television news — an all-day broadcast packed with footage of Ukrainian tanks blasting Russian […]
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“The new Russia Expo is offering the country’s public a view of its many regions and cultures. But experts say it also offers a window into Vladimir Putin’s vision of Russia’s present and future.” “… More than 4 million visitors have passed through the exhibits representing every Russian region, plus four occupied Ukrainian territories and Crimea, that make up the […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 3, 2024) Polls show Russians increasingly would like to see peace in Ukraine but continue to support Vladimir Putin as their preferred candidate in the presidential elections even though he is the man who decided to invade Ukraine in the first place and has continued to expand the Russian invasion. Oleg […]
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“Moscow’s forces have adapted their tactics since last winter, preceding their missiles with waves of drones, whose mission is to saturate Kyiv’s air defense capabilities and deplete their ammunition reserves.” “… [T]his new campaign of Russian strikes could … be more difficult to counter than last year’s …. The Russian military, aware of Ukraine’s ground-to-air defense capabilities, has adapted its […]
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“Ukraine said it was defending territory behind the eastern frontline town. Its capture would be Russia’s most significant territorial advance in Ukraine in more than six months.” “… The battle for Marinka illustrated defining features of Russia’s invasion that analysts say have given Moscow’s forces a major advantage: bombing a place to ruins and then sending in wave after wave […]
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“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]
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“Brussels must solve the bloc’s internal problems and stop making promises it cannot keep” “… [In] [t]he period before candidacy … the aspiring member proves its worth. … [O]ver the past three decades the EU has changed more than Ukraine. … The EU has entered an era of defensive enlargement. Ukraine’s candidacy, like Moldova’s and Georgia’s, has been expedited in […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. and its European allies “are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war,” according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat interviewed by Politico. “Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine […]
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“By not arming Kyiv for a long-range campaign against Russia, the U.S. seems to be forcing a deal.” “… [W]hile Russia can strike anywhere in Ukraine, the U.S. has denied the Ukrainians the weapons they need to hit Russian targets, even in the parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies. This raises the question: Does [] Biden want Ukraine to win? […]
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“Blatant violations of international laws require a response and reparations would be in line with historical precedent.” “… [One] geopolitical flashpoint[] … may be … pressure to seize Russia’s reserves in foreign central banks to fund Ukraine. Western nations … reported[ly] … have been actively exploring the move …. rais[ing] worries about … consequences for the financial system, … that […]
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“… [I]f Putin is running as a wartime president, he has to massage the facts. Russia does not fully control the Ukrainian regions it claimed in September 2022; the war on the ground has been extremely costly in terms of Russian lives and equipment; and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has taken a serious beating. … [T]he war has … come […]
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“The Soviet Union designed the S-300 … mobile, surface-to-air defense … system[] during the Cold War …. Russia unleashed 14 … offensively at cities in Ukraine …. part of a wave of missiles and drones … [in] the largest one-day aerial attack on Ukraine …. ripp[ing] into 45 multistory buildings, including schools, churches, hospitals, maternity wards, shopping centers and warehouses, […]
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(PONARS Eurasia (George Washington University) – March 11, 2022) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which we condemn in the harshest possible terms, continues to wreak carnage in Ukraine. Representing a community of scholars, the PONARS Eurasia Executive Committee is appalled that some in the global academic community have supported the invasion and use their scholarly positions to justify it, including a long […]
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Overnight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas — killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. It is a stark reminder to […]
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