JRL NEWSWATCH: “Asia’s commercial heft helps keep Russia’s war economy going; That holds future lessons for America” – The Economist

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… [M]ore than three dozen countries … slapped economic sanctions on Russia … unprecedented in … scope for a target of its size, covering energy and other commodities, finance, technology, travel, shipping and more … to raise the cost … of continuing the war [in Ukraine]. … China … has done the most to undermine the West’s sanctions. Trade between […]

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RIP: Roger Kanet

Lit Candle with Reflection and Dark Background

Subject: RIP: Roger Kanet Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2024 From: Boyle, Francis A <fboyle@illinois.edu> When I joined the Law Faculty here in August of 1978, knowing of my extensive studies of Russia, the Soviet Union and the Soviet Legal System at Harvard, Roger asked me to become an associate of our then Russian Research Center. So I spent a lot […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Germany Braces for Decades of Confrontation With Russia” – New York Times

Brandeburg Gate in Berlin, Germany, file photo adapted from image at state.gov

“Leaders are sounding alarms about growing threats, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is wary of pushing the Kremlin, and his own ambivalent public, too far.” “Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia … that they must speedily rebuild the country’s military in case … Putin does not plan to stop […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Klitschko hits out against Zelensky’s ‘plan to reset’ top team” – The Times (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Ukraine’s president is fuelling talk that he will replace the popular General Valery Zaluzhny — and that his shake-up may not stop at the military” “… Klitschko warned that the dismissal of Zaluzhny could have an adverse effect on Ukrainian society, saying that the general was the reason … people ‘truly trust the armed forces.’ He has also previously criticised […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What is Russia’s role in the Israel-Gaza crisis?” – Fiona Hill, Kevin Huggard

Gaza Strip map adapted from cia.gov image

“Is the Israel-Hamas war a distraction from Ukraine?” “… FIONA HILL: There’s a lot of concern … that there will be less emphasis on Ukraine [and not just for the United States] …. European countries … are being roiled by … Gaza …. described recently by [a] foreign minister … as a ‘black hole … sucking everything else into it’ […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is Valery Zaluzhny about to be fired?” – The Economist

File Photo of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Source: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, via Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, adapted from image at army.mil posting.

“… [I]nside [Ukraine] … polls show [Zaluzhny ] is even more popular — and more symbolic of Ukraine’s resistance — than [Zelensky]. …  As risky as the move is for domestic stability, it does still seem likely [] Zaluzhny will be switched out …. In some respects, the pressures of war are being felt symmetrically in both Ukraine and Russia. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Adaptation Advantage” – Foreign Affairs: Mick Ryan

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Early in the War, Moscow Struggled to Shift Gears—but Now It’s Outlearning Kyiv” “… Empowered by … Western weapons, motivated by the existential threat posed by Russia’s aggression, and well prepared …, Kyiv was able to develop new ways of fighting in remarkably short order. Russia, in contrast, fumbled: a big, arrogant, and lumbering bear, overconfident of a rapid victory. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledges to shake up Ukraine’s leadership” – Financial Times

Volodymyr Zelensky file photo, adapted from dhs.gov image

“President says upcoming reshuffle will target more than just the army’s top brass” “… Zelenskyy is considering a sweeping ‘reset’ of Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership … attempt[ing] to reinvigorate its war effort …. [Zelenskyy] Sunday evening confirmed … he was not only seeking to replace General Valery Zaluzhny, … popular commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, but also top government […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future” – Atlantic Council: Casey Michel

Kremlin and River

“Briefly, the five scenarios … include: Putin’s continued rule Putin’s ouster, followed by the installation of a far-right, nationalistic figure or cadre Putin’s ouster, followed by a technocratic, if still largely antidemocratic, regime Putin’s ouster, followed by the rise of a liberal, thoroughly pro-Western government Russian Federation state fracture” * * * “… Scenario #1 Putin’s Russia survives Scenario #2 […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Washington Must Do for Kyiv Between Now and November” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [A]fter weeks of negotiation, the EU approved a 50 billion euro funding package for Ukraine … a much needed economic boost[] while the U.S. bill remains held up in Congress. On a recent episode of Carnegie Connects, host Aaron David Miller discussed … Russia’s war against Ukraine with Carnegie senior fellows Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella. … * * […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s army chief: The design of war has changed” – CNN

File Photo of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Source: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, via Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, adapted from image at army.mil posting.

“[Editor’s Note: Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2021. This article was written before an expected announcement of his dismissal. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read a detailed CNN analysis of this article here, and the full essay here.] “… It is well known by now that a central driver […]

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Russia’s Ruthless Renaissance

Kremlin and River

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Associate Professor, Department of Communication Studies, Colorado State University; Evgeniya Pyatovskaya, PhD candidate, Department of Communication Studies, University of South Florida – Feb. 1, 2024) Two years into the war with Ukraine, today’s Russia can best be understood through the lens of a slogan that once appeared in a Solovki special prison, part […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. and Germany Push to Delay Ukraine NATO Membership Invite; Ukraine and its Eastern European allies want the invite to come soon, but Washington and Berlin are wary.” – Foreign Policy

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Ukraine and some of its strongest supporters are pushing NATO to formally invite Kyiv to become a member … during a major upcoming summit, but … [reportedly] are facing significant behind-the-scenes pushback from the United States and Germany …. Kyiv has backing from Eastern European [NATO members] … including Poland and the Baltic states … [think Ukrainian] NATO membership [would […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Leaders Agree to $54 Billion Ukraine Aid Package as Hungary’s Orban Backs Down” – WSJ

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Ukraine aid decision comes against the backdrop of growing fears about Russia’s threat to Europe’s security” “[EU] leaders agreed to a $54 billion budget aid package for Ukraine … Thursday, locking in financing … for the next four years … [a mix of long-term loans and grants,] a major boost for Ukraine, which could have started to run short of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum; A Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat” – Foreign Affairs: Stephen Biddle

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century …. Breakthrough … has long required permissive conditions … now absent in Ukraine: a defender … whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s birthrates are plummeting. The next generation needs a plan.” – The Times (UK)

Crowd in Ukraine with Little Girl Raised Up Waving Small Ukrainian Flag, adapted from state.gov image of USAF Photo by Senior Airman Madeline Herzog

“Babies are an increasingly rare sight in a society that prizes family above all but now has the world’s lowest birthrate, throwing the country’s very survival into question.” “Ukraine [reportedly] now has the lowest total fertility rate in the world … an average of 0.7 children per woman of child-bearing age …. This lack of children, compounded by mass violent […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Spycraft and Statecraft: Transforming the CIA for an Age of Competition” – Foreign Affairs: William J. Burns

William Burns file photo, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… In a world in which the United States’ principal rivals — China and Russia — are led by personalistic autocrats operating within small and insular circles of advisers, gaining insight into leaders’ intentions is both more important and more difficult than ever. Just as 9/11 ushered in a new era for the CIA, so did Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. […]

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“Full-scale Invasion”

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Subject: “Full-scale Invasion” Date: Tue, 30 Jan 2024 From: John Evans <evansinamerica@aol.com> [John Evans is an American former diplomat who served as United States ambassador to Armenia.] David, like you, I have been struck by the near-universal adoption of this phrase. I believe its original intent may have been to distinguish the February 2022 events from the earlier 2014 take-over […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine says it uncovers mass fraud in weapons procurement” – Reuters

File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Ukraine’s SBU security service said on Saturday it had uncovered a corruption scheme in the purchase of arms … totalling the equivalent of about $40 million. … The fight to root out endemic corruption remains a major issue as Ukraine presses its bid to secure [EU] membership …. The SBU said an investigation … ‘exposed officials of the Ministry of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to replace Ukraine’s top general” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Removal of Valeriy Zaluzhny would mark biggest shake-up of military command since Russia’s full-scale invasion began” “Zelenskyy on Monday [reportedly] offered Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, a new role but the general refused …. [Sources] said Zelenskyy had made clear … that regardless … [Zaluzhny] would be removed from his current position. … Zelenskyy [reportedly] … might not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO Has Been Underestimating Russia’s War Machine, Estonia Says” – Bloomberg

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“Kremlin nowhere near breaking point, military chief says. Moscow can produce several million shells, recruit thousands.” “… Martin Herem, … commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, said predictions that Russian forces would reach the limits of their resources haven’t come true. … [indicating that] Putin’s military has the capacity to produce several million artillery shells a year, far outstripping European […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia has long sold arms to Iran. Now Iran is returning the favor.” – Christian Science Monitor

Map of Iran with Iranian Flag, adapted and edited from image at state.gov

“Despite Western perceptions, Iran and Russia are not natural allies, and have generally had a touchy relationship. But that appears to be changing amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and turmoil in the Mideast.” “With the war in Ukraine deepening Russia’s urgent need for weapons untouched by Western sanctions, Moscow is rapidly ramping up its relations with Iran, particularly through arms […]

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Ukraine Can Win a War of Attrition

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/blogs/focus-ukraine – Dan White – Jan. 25, 2024) Dan White is a Kennan Institute Staff Assistant Intern for the Fall 2023. Dan is currently pursuing a Master of International Public Policy at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Although Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive brought only modest results, there are broad indications that the cumulative […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin Denies Putin Sending Signals to U.S. for Ukraine Peace Talks” – Moscow Times

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(Moscow Times – Jan. 26, 2024) The Kremlin on Friday denied reports that President Vladimir Putin is probing to see whether the United States is willing to engage in talks for ending the war in Ukraine. A Bloomberg report published the day before cited two anonymous sources close to the Kremlin as saying that Putin had indirectly “put out feelers” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Volodymyr Zelensky comes up empty-handed in Davos as he faces financial war hell” – New York Post

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Wall Street has shown a keen interest in investing in Ukraine. The banker class … admires the country’s resiliency … [and] appreciates the geopolitical urgency in preventing … Putin from re-establishing the old Soviet Union …. … [T]hey liked Zelensky’s pitch in Davos: … [I]nflation … below 6% [down] from as high as 30%; the economy is growing. He plans […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Real Reason Thousands Are Fleeing Conscription in Ukraine” – The Daily Beast

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Men who are hiding from the war tell The Daily Beast they do not trust the military system and fear they’ll be sent to the frontline without proper training.” “… Zelensky says … military commanders seek an additional 450,000 to 500,000 men to compensate for casualties and expand the army in 2024. Finding men to replace the fallen is becoming […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “UK must train citizens for war with Russia, says army chief” – The Times (UK)

File Photo of British Parliament Building, Big Ben, Thames, adapted from image at loc.gov

“General Sir Patrick Sanders says volunteers must be prepared for conflict, in speech No 10 didn’t want made public” “Civilians must be trained and equipped to form a ‘citizen army’ of tens of thousands in case Britain is dragged into war with a country such as Russia …. General Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the general staff [said], also … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets – officials” – Reuters

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“The [EU] [reportedly] is unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe, despite G7 plans to discuss the legality of such a move at a meeting in February …. The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine … [including roughly] $200 billion … held […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s War Fuels a Wage Spiral That Threatens Army Recruitment” – Bloomberg

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

“Civilian wages outpace military pay for fighting in Ukraine Kremlin has avoided another call-up ahead of March elections” “Russia’s war in Ukraine is intensifying an acute deficit of workers … igniting a race to increase salaries that threatens the Kremlin’s ability to replenish the armed forces. The competition for employees has pushed wages up at a double-digit pace and made […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s $30 Billion Problem: How to Keep Fighting Without Foreign Aid” – WSJ

File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Kyiv could delay salaries, return to printing money if funding from U.S. and EU falls through” “Ukraine [reportedly] will run out of money within months and be forced to take painful economic measures to keep the government running if aid from the U.S. or Europe doesn’t come through …. The U.S. and [EU] … have promised Kyiv billions of dollars […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine war drives shift in Russian nuclear thinking – study” – Reuters

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“Non-strategic nuclear arms have range to hit Europe not U.S. Moscow increasingly relies on NSNWs to deter NATO -report Russia sees lack of Western will to use own nuclear arms” “The war in Ukraine [reportedly] has dented Russia’s confidence in its conventional forces and increased the importance to Moscow of non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) as a means of deterring and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A century after Lenin’s death, the USSR’s founder seems to be an afterthought in modern Russia” – AP

File Photo of Vladimir Lenin at Desk adapted from nps.gov image

“Take a look at Vladimir Lenin’s legacy, 100 years after the first Soviet Union leader’s death shocked Russia.” “… A century later, the once-omnipresent image of Vladimir Lenin is largely an afterthought in modern Russia …. The Red Square mausoleum where his embalmed corpse lies in an open sarcophagus is no longer a near-mandatory pilgrimage but a site of macabre […]

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Cursed land: About a radically pessimistic scenario for Russia and the whole world

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Jan. 22, 2024) Egor Mostovshchikov is a reporter, editor, publisher, director, screenwriter, and producer. He is the founder of the self-published media outlet Batenka, da vy transformer. Machine translation: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/proklyataya-zemlya Peter Zeichan is exceptionally selfless: in his works, he meticulously destroys everything that a person who grew up in Russia knows about his country. A […]

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Zelensky Signs Decree on Russian Territories ‘Historically Inhabited’ by Ukrainians

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Moscow Times – Jan. 22, 2024) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday signed a decree calling for the preservation of Ukrainian national identity in Russia. The decree, announced to coincide with Ukraine’s Day of Unity on Jan. 22, states that “Russia has systematically destroyed national identity and oppressed Ukrainians in the lands historically inhabited by them,” namely the “modern Krasnodar, […]

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Ukraine and West Can’t Count on Collapse of Russia’s Military-Industrial Sector as a Result of Sanctions, Inozemtsev Says

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is Losing the Drone War; How Kyiv Can Close the Innovation Gap With Russia” – Foreign Affairs: Eric Schmidt

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Russia’s resilient war economy, expanded materiel production, and population edge, combined with uncertainty about the West’s continued support of Ukraine … give Putin reason to double down. … [A]s … frontlines stabilize, the sky above will fill with ever-greater numbers of drones. Ukraine aims to acquire more than two million drones in 2024 — half of which it plans […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel” – Financial Times

“Demand for atomic energy is surging but Moscow dominates the world’s supplies of enriched uranium.” “… Utilities companies have spent two years stockpiling nuclear fuel in case Russian supplies are disrupted. … Washington is undertaking a multibillion-dollar push to rebuild its nuclear supply chain …. More than a fifth of the fuel used by the 93 nuclear reactors in the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO admiral warns of potential all-out war with Russia” – The Hill

Globe Highlighting NATO Members

“Top NATO official Adm. Rob Bauer warned Thursday that a larger war with Russia and other adversaries is a real threat amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine …. [saying] ‘not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years.’ ‘I’m not saying it is going wrong tomorrow, but we have to realize it’s not a given that […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘Active defence’: how Ukraine plans to survive 2024” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“After its summer counteroffensive ended in failure, Kyiv is shifting to a new strategy as it prepares itself for a third year of war.” “… Ukraine’s military prospects appear to be dimming … [as it] abandon[s] hopes of a swift victory and … gird[s] itself for a drawn-out war. One western official … [sees] ‘little prospect of an operational breakthrough […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Protests in Russia Put Spotlight on Wartime Ethnic Grievances” – New York Times

Russia Regions Map

“The trial and conviction of an activist in the Ural Mountains region sparked one of the biggest outbreaks of social unrest since the start of the war.” “The trial of a minority rights activist in Russia … sparked one of [Russia’s]  biggest outbreaks of social unrest … since the start of the [Russo-Ukrainian] war … highlighting the strain … on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How viable is Arctic shipping? Russia is investing in the region” – The Economist

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Shipping lanes are under pressure. Seven of the world’s ten biggest shipping companies have suspended transit through the Red Sea, where the Houthis … are attacking commercial vessels [with the result that] …. far fewer ships are using the Suez Canal …. The volume of trade passing through the Panama Canal … has declined by 30% … after severe drought […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Desperate Hour: The World Needs a Russian Defeat” – Bloomberg

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Grabbing $300 billion of Russian assets is no panacea, West cautions in Davos” – Reuters

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Rules Out Nuclear Arms Talks With US Over Ukraine Support” – Bloomberg

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“No grounds for arms-control talks with U.S., Lavrov says Russia accuses U.S. of escalating confrontation over Ukraine” “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed the U.S. over … Ukraine and warned on the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers … [while] rul[ing] out … discussions on strategic security …. He accused the U.S. and … European allies of escalating … confrontation […]

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Unfulfillable Promise: Mediation Efforts in the Russian-Ukrainian War since 2014

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 871 – Tetyana Malyarenko, Stefan Wolff – Jan. 12, 2024 – click here for PDF) Part 2. Wartime Mediation This memo is the second in a two-part assessment of the effectiveness of mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian war during its gray-zone (2014-2022) and conventional (2022-present) stages. Read Part 1 here There is growing support for the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “With ‘God’s-eye view,’ secretive surveillance flights keep close watch on Russia and Ukraine” – AP

File Photo of French AWACS Plane in Flight, adapted from defense.gov image

“ABOARD A FRENCH AIR FORCE AWACS … Off in the distance, Ukraine, fighting for its survival. Seen from up here, in the cockpit of a French air force surveillance plane flying over neighboring Romania, the snow-dusted landscapes look deceptively peaceful. … Circling on auto-pilot at 34,000 feet … the plane … fed intelligence in real time to ground-based commanders. Its […]

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