JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘Active defence’: how Ukraine plans to survive 2024” – Financial Times
“After its summer counteroffensive ended in failure, Kyiv is shifting to a new strategy as it prepares itself for a third year of war.”
“… Ukraine’s military prospects appear to be dimming … [as it] abandon[s] hopes of a swift victory and … gird[s] itself for a drawn-out war. One western official … [sees] ‘little prospect of an operational breakthrough by either side in 2024’ … [a] reality … acknowledged in Kyiv, where … Zelenskyy declared … [last month] ‘a new phase’ …. [Zelenskyy has] ordered … new fortifications along key segments of its 1,000km front … signalling a shift … to a defensive posture. The western official says … ‘active defence’ — holding defensive lines but probing for weak spots to exploit coupled with long-range air strikes — would allow Ukraine to ‘build out its forces’ … and prepare for 2025 ….”
Among the factors impacting Ukraine’s prospects are the levels, certainty and timing of Western aid, including U.S. support, as well as the magnitude of mobilization and numbers of personnel needed.
Meanwhile, a U.S. intelligence assessment reportedly has concluded that Putin has not abandoned the Kremlin’s initial goal of conquering and subjugating Ukraine.