JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Adaptation Advantage” – Foreign Affairs: Mick Ryan
“Early in the War, Moscow Struggled to Shift Gears—but Now It’s Outlearning Kyiv”
“… Empowered by … Western weapons, motivated by the existential threat posed by Russia’s aggression, and well prepared …, Kyiv was able to develop new ways of fighting in remarkably short order. Russia, in contrast, fumbled: a big, arrogant, and lumbering bear, overconfident of a rapid victory. The institutional shock of Russia’s lack of success, in turn, slowed its ability to learn and adapt. … [A]fter two years of war, the adaptation … quality gap between Ukraine and Russia has closed. Ukraine still has an innovative and bottom-up military culture … to quickly introduce new battlefield technologies and tactics. But it can struggle to make sure that those lessons are systematized and spread …. Russia … is slower to learn from the bottom up because of a reluctance to report failure and … more centralized command …. Yet when Russia does finally learn something, it is able to systematize it across the military and … large defense industry. … Ukraine is better at tactical adaptation … on the battlefield. Russia is superior at strategic adaptation, … learning and adaptation that affects national and military policymaking …. The longer [the] war … the better Russia will get at learning, adapting, and building a more effective, modern fighting force. Slowly but surely, Moscow will absorb new ideas from the battlefield and rearrange its tactics …. [A]daptation already helped it fend off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, and over the last few months it has helped Russian troops take more territory …. Ultimately, if Russia’s edge in strategic adaptation persists without an appropriate Western response, the worst that can happen … is … Ukrainian defeat. … Ukraine has no time to waste …. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the more Moscow will improve its strategic adaptation. The most convincing justification for improving Ukraine’s strategic adaptation and hindering Russia’s is to ensure that Ukraine does not lose the war. Russia currently holds the strategic initiative … [D]efeat is still a possible outcome.”
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