JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine and the End of Magical Thinking” – The Nation/ Katrina vanden Heuvel
“Time for reassessment and a change of course.”
“Ukraine’s startling early success … repelling the Russian attempt to take Kiev produced widespread euphoria. Russia’s military was exposed as incompetent and bumbling. The U.S. mobilized … allies to provide arms and support and impose harsh sanctions …. NATO was galvanized and expanded. …. Now as another harsh winter descends, the much-ballyhooed Ukrainian ‘offensive’ has failed. With China, India and much of the Global South stepping in, Russia’s economy has rebounded …. Putin has geared up for a long war. Ukraine, the second-largest country in Europe, is locked in a war of attrition with a country that is bigger, with more people, more troops, more artillery, and control of the air. The Pentagon, we’re told, has plans to increase production of 155 million artillery shells from 30,000 per month to 90,000 or 100,000 in 2025. Russia is headed toward generating 2 million a year. Russia, according to a US intelligence estimate, lost a stunning 87 percent of its active-duty military in the first months of the war. But Ukraine’s losses have been nearly as great and not as sustainable. It is running out of men, guns, and ammunition. Its economy is battered. Over 20 percent of its people have been displaced, including 6.3 million refugees. It is estimated that it will take 757 years to rid the country of the mines now strewn across the countryside. The price tag for rebuilding is estimated to be north of $400 billion. … [B]oth sides have reason to explore a cease-fire ….”