“Vladimir Putin’s authority has suffered a grave blow.” “… Prigozhin[‘s] … mutiny has revealed the erosion of the state and the flimsiness of [] Putin’s support base. His dictatorship has so far relied less on mass purges than a consensus between power groups. His political opponents have ended up in jail (like [] Navalny) or exile. … [H]e has sowed […]
» Read more
“The Ukrainian leader has secured new weapons pledges, but it was not clear when the aid would arrive, or how consequential it would be on the battlefield.” “… Zelensky … said … Russian forces were throwing ‘everything they can’ at Kyiv’s troops fighting to retake land in the south and east … emphasizing the grueling nature of a counteroffensive … […]
» Read more
“… For an intelligence chief running Ukraine’s spy operations during war with Russia, Kyrylo Budanov, 37, has built up an unusually public profile … to get his message out and … menace Russia from afar. These days, a spy boss cannot stay in the shadows, he says. … In parts of his interview … he said … mutinying Russian mercenaries […]
» Read more
“Russia Can Be Stopped Only on the Battlefield – Angela Stent” “… [T]here is a huge problem in trying to negotiate with … Putin’s Russia, … Russia itself. Moscow has broken every security-related agreement it has signed with Ukraine in the past 30 years. These include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, whereby Ukraine renounced its nuclear arsenal — […]
» Read more
“Trump says President Biden isn’t capable of dealing with world leaders.” “… Trump explained his plan to secure peace in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking back the White House on Sunday, saying he would tell … Zelenskyy to make a deal. … The former president said he has a good relationship with both Zelenskyy and … Putin, and added […]
» Read more
“… [I]f it were up to [Gen. Valery] Zaluzhny[, Ukraine’s top commander,] … [h]e would fight with air superiority. … fire back at least as many shells as the Russians are firing at his troops[] [a]nd … have cruise missiles that could match Moscow’s. Instead, modern fighter jets, such as … F-16[‘s], are not expected on the battlefield until next […]
» Read more
“… [NATO] leaders … affirm[ed] … ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’ … [declaring] ‘[w]e will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met’ …. [Meanwhile] G7 countries … issued a joint declaration setting out general principles on … ‘enduring’ support for Ukraine. … work[ing] towards ‘specific, bilateral, […]
» Read more
“When Russia marched into Ukraine last year, it sought to rally Russian speakers abroad …. Then the Russian speakers pushed back. … Germany[] [is] home to 3.5 million Russian speakers, the largest such group outside the former Soviet Union and the biggest migrant community in Germany. … [T]he Russlanddeutsche, or ‘Russia Germans,’ ethnic Germans whose ancestors settled in Russia in […]
» Read more
“The writings of Tolstoy, Turgenev, Dostoyevsky and others are littered with clues for understanding the 21st-century world.” “Books of cultural criticism seldom shed a piercing light on headline events. However, readers of ‘Wonder Confronts Certainty,’ Gary Saul Morson’s masterly panorama of classic Russian literature and its hinterland of ideas, will find their understanding of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent botched rebellion against […]
» Read more
“… Putin and his comrades see Nazis where there aren’t any … [and] see militarization where there isn’t any …. They insisted in late 2021 and early 2022 that they would never, ever invade Ukraine — and then did. They deny, still, targeting Ukrainian civilian targets. They deny, still, having destroyed the Kakhovka dam. The list could go on ad […]
» Read more
“Long focused on security, the Russian resident is rewarding loyalty among the ruling elite and showering his most important constituency — the men with guns — with cash.” “… Putin appears to be scrambling to coup-proof his system once more. … rewarding loyalty among the ruling elite and showering his most important constituency — the men with guns — with […]
» Read more
“But mass still counts, argues Shashank Joshi in the first of seven chapters of a special report on the future of warfare.” “… [The Russo-Ukrainian War has turned out to feature] old-style attrition: an industrial-scale contest of manpower, steel and explosives. … [with Russian casualties thought to number] over 200,000 … killed and wounded. … four times the … Soviet […]
» Read more
“… Medvedev … has warned that Moscow’s confrontation with the West will last decades and that its conflict with Ukraine could become permanent. Medvedev[, former Russian president and now] deputy head of … [Russia’s] Security Council, … has emerged as one of Russia’s most outspoken hawks since Moscow launched what it called a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine last year. […]
» Read more
“This is war. … Zelenskyy[] is fighting or forced to fight a Russian president who’s been ruthless, bombing civilian targets from almost minute one, with Zelenskyy pleading with the United States and the West, please send tanks, please send planes, please send us the most advanced military equipment you can give us, because we need it. … [S]ending cluster munitions […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – July 7, 2023) What made Yevgeny Prigozhin rebel? We have seen multiple explanations offered, including his outspoken hatred for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; his evident reluctance to give up control of his PMC Wagner to the Defense Ministry; unspecified personal financial pressures; and his […]
» Read more
(whitehouse.gov – July 7, 2023) …. As I mentioned, because we’ve seen all of these reports on the provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine, I will leave it to the Pentagon to make a formal announcement later this afternoon for the next drawdown package and to go into the details of that drawdown package and the specifics on the types […]
» Read more
“… [S]outhern Ukraine [minefields] are so dense… [that] troops trying to liberate the area [reportedly] can only advance ‘tree by tree’ … Ukraine’s Western allies are getting nervous about the fact that … progress … is … measured in meters, rather than kilometers. … [T]he slower than expected pace of the counteroffensive means … support could become increasingly unsustainable if […]
» Read more
“The short-lived mutiny by the Wagner Group rebounded to help solidify Putin’s control.” “… There is no doubt that Prigozhin’s rebellion was unpleasant news for Putin. But is the Russian leader weakened? We know very little about what happened between Putin and Prigozhin … ‘Putin’s chef.’ And what we do know supports very few, if any, of the claims that […]
» Read more
“A robust fund-raising operation has been critical in supplying Ukraine’s military. But as the war drags on, contributions have lagged.” “… [M]any Ukrainian military units have relied heavily on donations and charitable funds to supply … troops with much-needed supplies like first aid kits, body armor, vehicles and even drones. People and groups from around the world rallied to Ukraine’s […]
» Read more
“If Putin’s defense spending numbers are correct, it’s likely that Prigozhin overstated the size of his army.” “… [D]isatisfaction with Russia’s military and political leadership will continue to brew with the fighting in Ukraine. As more details become available about Wagner — until recently, the best-equipped, always regularly paid part of the Russian invasion force — officers and soldiers alike […]
» Read more
“… [The] Ukraine … conflict has involved horrific atrocities, many … extensively recorded in real time …. [U]nlike in Syria and other recent wars, these crimes are being documented with the explicit aim of amassing evidence that can be used in courts. Since the war began, dozens of investigative journalists have been trained to become war crimes researchers, gathering images, […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]
» Read more
(PONARS Eurasia – ponarseurasia.org – July 3, 2023) Ponarsians have weighed in en masse to interperet Yevgeny Prigozhin’s apparent mutiny. Kimberly Marten, who has long studied his Wagner Group, cautions that calling it a private military company belies the fact that it works on behalf of the Russian State and that, contrary to popular belief, Prigozhin is more its fixer […]
» Read more
“… An army invades Russia, race[s] right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn’t able to? And Putin holds his military back? And then, with Moscow supposedly within his grasp, Prigozhin decides, ‘Oh well, never mind’ and heads to Belarus? … It is […]
» Read more
“.. .[R]isk of … major disaster at the … Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of … radioactive fallout. The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire … but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the [June 6] […]
» Read more
“Long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure have been … prominent and persistent …. … [T]he CSIS report Putin’s Missile War found that Russian missile attacks in 2022 … caused major damage to Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure but … failed to achieve the kind of decisive strategic effects … Moscow … likely sought. Into 2023, Russia has persisted in […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russian intelligence services may have known in advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plan to stage a mutiny, but it nonetheless materialized to pose the greatest military and security threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule since the end of the second Chechen war. The mutiny itself lasted only 36 hours, never spread to Moscow and ended with its chief […]
» Read more
“The Biden administration is actively considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine to help Kyiv’s counteroffensive punch through Russia’s defenses, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the debate said. The discussion … has intensified … as Ukraine’s effort to break through Russia’s frontline has stalled. … Late last year, the administration said it had ‘concerns’ … mainly for humanitarian […]
» Read more
“… For Ukraine to retake territory … armored vehicles and infantry [] will need to traverse routes that Russia has extensively mined. Open fields and side roads will need to be cleared …. The West has supplied mine-clearing equipment, including explosive charges that can clear an open lane through a minefield. But … the task is [still] daunting. … [and […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – June 29, 2023) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of Russia Matters. What drove Yevgeny Prigozhin to lead his PMC Wagner troops on a “march for justice” across southern Russia, toward Moscow? Was it a mutiny meant to overthrow Vladimir Putin and install the ex-convict in the Kremlin? Or was the owner […]
» Read more
“… Prigozhin’s mutiny … poke[d] a hole in the Kremlin’s campaign to assure Russians that everything is fine …. [] Prigozhin … gave more Russians reason to doubt their leadership. Is [] Putin really the all-powerful, czarlike figure they thought he was? …. Even if they are not ready to give up their relative safety and stability in favor of […]
» Read more
“For 18 months, Russia has been sliding deeper into totalitarian rule, including draconian laws pushed by … Putin that make it criminal to question the war against Ukraine — or even call it a ‘war’ …. [T]housands of Russians who object to the war and oppose [] Putin have not had the benefit of [the kind of] lenienc[y] [shown Prigozhin, […]
» Read more
“Defence minister argues Wagner insurrection in Russia will encourage further western support for Kyiv” “… [F]ormer Soviet paratrooper … [and current Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy] Reznikov said Ukraine’s army continued to impose heavy losses on Russian troops, with ‘degradation as a tool and the liberation of Ukrainian lands as the goal.’ Ukraine’s counteroffensive has … recaptured about 300 square kilometres […]
» Read more
“Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted rebellion didn’t topple President Vladimir Putin. But in its aftermath, it has launched debate over just how stable Mr. Putin’s hold on the country really is.” “When oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin led his 25,000-strong Wagner private military forces into open insurrection against Russia’s Defense Ministry and Moscow elites … it looked like the kind of turning point that […]
» Read more
“… Prigozhin lambasted the elite’s children as ‘shaking their tails on beaches’ while the children of ordinary Russian families are dying. … His fury both stokes and is fueled by widespread anger … [Russian] towns have been emptied by conscription[] and … cemeteries seek more gravediggers. … It would be reckless to dismiss the possibility that the regime’s internal troubles […]
» Read more
“Many Western pundits were quick to offer their hysterical takes on the weekend’s events in Russia” (opendemocracy.net – Jeremy Morris – June 26, 2023) Jeremy Morris is a researcher at Aarhus University, Denmark. His work covers labour relations, political economy, and the lived experience of people in Russia, Ukraine and other places since the collapse of the Soviet Union. He […]
» Read more
“… [Recent] events … portend a dark future for Russia. In a few short hours, Prigozhin’s armed rebellion generated enormous chaos. The war has stretched Russian state capacity thin … [T]he revolt has stretched it still further, presenting … a new domestic challenge. For years, the Kremlin has devised ways to head off a [cosmopolitan,] liberal, urban revolution. … [T]he […]
» Read more
“Neither Vladimir V. Putin nor the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made public appearances on Sunday, a day after an armed rebellion shook the nation.” “Confusion and uncertainty pervaded Russia on Sunday … [N]either … Putin nor … Prigozhin, … head of a mutinous mercenary group, appear[ed] anywhere in public a day after the most profound government crisis in […]
» Read more
“… Putin looked into the abyss … and blinked. After vowing revenge for what he called an ‘armed mutiny,’ he settled for a compromise. The speed with which Putin backed down suggests … his sense of vulnerability might be higher even than analysts believed. Putin might have saved his regime Saturday, but this day will be remembered as part of […]
» Read more
(Fred Weir – facebook.com/fred.weir – June 24, 2023) “It’s not the first time something bizarre has happened when I am away from Moscow. Prigozhin’s ‘revolt,’ of course, can go down as a clear illustration of the perils of permitting private armies to exist. …” [original post should load below, and also appears at facebook.com/fred.weir/posts/793729415591872/]
» Read more
(Michael Kofman – twitter.com/KofmanMichael – June 25, 2023) “A few thoughts on Prigozhin’s armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion. For now it appears over. … Prigozhin launched a mutiny that ultimately challenged Putin’s power, and the system. This was not a traditional coup, but with Putin’s video and FSB statements it became a challenge that would reveal the extent of brittleness in the regime. […]
» Read more
“Shaken by the Wagner mutiny, Russia began addressing the damage of Saturday’s bout of violence as its citizens tried to understand how these events will affect … Putin’s regime, … shown … [to be] so unexpectedly vulnerable. … One widely shared conclusion in Russia … was that none of the key players in the power struggle that began when Prigozhin […]
» Read more
“The armed standoff on the road to Moscow, brief as it was, represented the most dramatic struggle for power in Russia in decades.” “… Could Russia’s botched invasion … eventually lead to the downfall of … Putin? For a few chaotic, head-snapping hours this weekend, the notion did not seem so far-fetched. … [E]ven with the apparent end to the […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Jake Cordell) Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and […]
» Read more
“… Biden was blunt … about Ukraine’s chances of joining NATO. ‘I’m not going to make it easier,’ he declared. Despite its bold fight against Russia, the country still has to prove itself: ‘Does it meet all the standards every other nation in NATO does?’ Joining the alliance … ‘is not automatic.’ America … finds itself unusually isolated in the […]
» Read more
“Putin says Kyiv has no chances in its push to retake occupied land” “Ukrainian forces are proceeding more slowly than planned in their offensive to retake occupied areas, … Zelensky acknowledged, as military commanders said they are taking time to reassess tactics, adjusting to Russia’s extensive minefields and [air] attacks …. Both sides agree that the intensity of fighting declined […]
» Read more
“Funerals have taken on a grim routine in the Ukrainian city of Lviv, and as the fighting grows more intense during the counteroffensive, gravediggers say they are bracing for more bodies.” “… Fierce battles are playing out … in the … east and south …. A British defense intelligence report said … Sunday … both armies were suffering significant casualties […]
» Read more
“… Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. … [and] authoritarian regimes most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders … [W]ere Putin to die … or be removed by insiders, the regime would … likely endure …. One development … could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. […]
» Read more
“Next month’s meeting of Western allies will leave the war-torn country mostly empty-handed.” “… [In] 2008 … NATO officially welcomed Ukraine’s aspirations for membership …. Now, after a full-scale Russian invasion, [Ukraine] is being asked to wait longer, without a timeline …. [T]he alliance … offers [Ukraine] perhaps the only chance at dodging future Russian attacks on its sovereignty. … […]
» Read more