“There’s a feeling we’re back in a war of attrition that risks stretching the patience of impatient allies, who only have themselves to blame for the slow progress.” “… [I]t feels as though we’re back in … a war of attrition that risks stretching the patience of impatient allies — something the Kremlin is no doubt hoping for. … Ukrainian […]
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“… ‘If the end state is Ukraine is a free, independent, sovereign country with its territory intact, that will take a considerable level of effort yet to come,’ [Gen. Mark Milley said last week]. ‘That’s gonna take a long, long time, but you can also achieve those objectives — maybe, possibly — through some sort of diplomatic means.’… [T]he administration’s […]
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“…. Having once promised a march to Crimea … the political leadership in Kyiv now emphasises more realistic expectations. … Ukraine’s leadership is particularly frustrated that Western equipment has not yet arrived in its promised numbers. … Lack of air cover is another difficulty. … In recent days Ukraine’s armed forces have made important advances in the crucial southern theatre, […]
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“… More than two months into the fight, the counteroffensive shows signs of stalling. Kyiv’s advances remain isolated to a handful of villages, Russian troops are pushing forward in the north and a plan to train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-made F-16s is delayed. … Without more advanced weapons slated to bolster the front line or fully committing forces still being […]
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“From Moscow to Washington, a lack of clear and achievable strategic goals points to a long conflict.” “Russia’s war on Ukraine is in danger of becoming a protracted struggle … last[ing] several more years. … [F]ront-line combat is a slow-moving slog… [and] none of the main actors have political goals … both clear and attainable. Ukraine’s central war aim — […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, thus, remaining unable to disrupt the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, WP reported, citing “people familiar with the classified forecast.” The assessment is based on Russia’s proficiency in defending occupied territory, which […]
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“Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.” “… [T]otal … Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since … [the wholesale invasion] 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said …. caution[ing] that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate … […]
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“Recommendations Adopt more-specific ways of describing adversary actions than ‘malign influence.’ Tailored deterrence strategies require a more precise definition …. Align U.S. forward presence to reinforce clear deterrence logics …. Clarify the logic of bomber task force and naval presence missions to ensure that the deployments strengthen deterrence …. Consider cost in the implementation of force employment concepts, differentiating between […]
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“Opinion research indicates that there are no red lines in Russian society, just passive conformity on national security issues.” “… The hard truth is that[,] at the moment, the Kremlin does not intend to use nuclear weapons and so the only hydrogen bomb rhetoric comes from the occasional pro-Kremlin commentator in the media. And yet, if the government did decide […]
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“[From July 12, 2023:] [NATO] leaders said they were removing obstacles on Ukraine’s membership path so that it can join more quickly once the war with Russia is over. For many, that argument gives Russia’s president a pretext to prolong the war, which … Putin ostensibly launched to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. But if Ukraine joins NATO in the […]
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“Almost all Ukrainians think the country has a problem with corruption, survey suggests.” “… On Friday, Zelenskyy said he dismissed the heads of Ukraine’s regional-military committees as investigations into corruption in Ukraine continued, particularly in its armed-forces recruitment. ‘We are dismissing all regional military commissars,’ a [Zelenskyy Telegram] statement … said. ‘This system should be run by people who know […]
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“What does the currency’s collapse mean for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war?” On Aug. 14, 2023, the value of the ruble fell below 1 cent in U.S. currency, more than 100 rubles per U.S. dollar. That was the ruble’s worst exchange value against the U.S. dollar since the immediate aftermath of the early 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. “… […]
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“… NATO enlargement isn’t the cause of … Putin’s full-scale war against Ukraine. But Putin’s aggression is the primary cause of NATO taking Ukrainian membership more seriously, and it led Finland and Sweden to do something that was (highly) unlikely until February 2022: to seek to join the alliance. … NATO enlargement provided for greater security and stability across Central […]
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“As the Ukrainian military grinds forward in a costly summer offensive that hasn’t … produced a breakthrough, there’s … palpable frustration in Kyiv and … Washington. … Whatever else you might say about the Ukraine war, …. Ukraine has proved utterly indigestible for the Russian military. Putin’s assault on Kyiv in the early months was a disastrous failure. The porcupine […]
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“For nearly 18 months, Ukraine has stood against its Russian invaders — rallying support … embracing last year’s battlefield victories in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Those wins carried beleaguered Ukrainians through a winter of airstrikes on civilian infrastructure and a brutal and symbolic battle for Bakhmut …. Ukrainian officials and … Western partners hyped up a coming counteroffensive […]
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“… Putin wants to lead Russians into a civilizational conflict with the West far larger than Ukraine. Will they follow him?” “I spent a month in Russia … searching for clues that might explain its nationalist lurch into an unprovoked war and its [current] mood …. The war … [reportedly] has … taken 200,000 lives since Feb. 24, 2022, roughly […]
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“According to the country’s historical experience, if the Russian state exists in its current form, it will not engage in sincere negotiations, or sign a peace deal in good faith.” “… Russia’s current war against Ukraine can’t easily end via negotiations. It falls into a long historical pattern … part of a larger pathology making stable peace unfeasible … [as […]
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“Mediation offers from China aren’t made in good faith.” “Skyrocketing costs for fuel and food in the global south due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are spurring mediation offers … from China, the African Union, and even Saudi Arabia. … Secretary of State Antony Blinken has welcomed these initiatives … to woo support from countries that have not condemned Russia […]
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6 Things to Know In the past month of fighting Russian armed forces made a net gain of 14 square miles, according to the estimate by the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force. Their research shows that the period saw Russian forces gain 43 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine’s net gain was 29 square miles, according to the Aug. 1, 2023 issue […]
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“A Russian assassination would deprive Ukraine’s war effort of one of its most valuable assets.” “… While it’s a question Zelenskyy understandably isn’t eager to contemplate, it’s also one his supporters at home and abroad can’t afford to ignore. … Russian lawmakers and ultra-nationalist military bloggers have formed a chorus demanding he be targeted. Zelenskyy’s status as a symbol of […]
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“… 31 percent of eligible [U.S.] voters … support or strongly support American military forces heading to the battlefields of Ukraine, [according to] polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies …. A quarter of respondents neither supported nor opposed the idea … with 34 percent against …. Just under one in ten … did not know. … […]
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“… As long as Russian troops squat in a swathe of some 18% of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine cannot be a properly functional state. It has lost access to most of its shoreline. … [T]he seas are not safe for its vessels, even those transporting food …. No commercial aircraft can fly in or out … for fear of a Russian […]
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“… Ukraine [reportedly] now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades …. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots. … Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia [reportedly] will use artillery […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov – July 28, 2023) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Meduza. Mr. Trudolyubov was the editorial page editor of Vedomosti between 2003 and 2015. Historically, as a politician interested in holding on to power, Putin was good at doing two things. First, he could run […]
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(Moscow Times – Aug. 3, 2023) At least 79 civilians have been killed on Russian soil since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, the independent news website 7×7 reported Tuesday. The Belgorod region which borders Ukraine, which has regularly been targeted by drone attacks and shelling, saw the highest share of civilian losses, with 48 people killed. Other […]
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“Traditional military power will not be enough to win the Ukraine war or the larger struggle over the global order.” “… Are cyber attacks, disinformation and influence campaigns still relevant? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes.’ Ukraine is but a single front in a [global conflict] … over what is and is not permissible in international relations. … [T]he war […]
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“Ukraine fought back with determination and smarts … halting Moscow’s advances and … driving Russian troops back from roughly half of the territory they seized in the last year and a half. As a result, Ukraine’s military looks far more powerful and Russia’s looks far weaker than virtually everyone expected. … [T]he entire shape of the war is very different […]
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“… [R]etired Australian general [Mick Ryan] described the defensive lines … Russia … built in Ukraine as ‘much more complex and deadly than anything experienced by any military in nearly 80 years.’ … [and that] breaking through … would require the best of combined-arms operational skills …. [Earlier] [s]atellite imagery … showed Russia strengthening its 600-mile front line with minefields, […]
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“U.S. is competing with a partnership between the two countries but has fewer icebreakers and ports, and less experience” “… [I]n the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming … in a double line near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. … [T]he main Chinese ship [was] the Nanchang, one of a new […]
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“… U.S. officials had looked ahead to the … long-planned counteroffensive as the best hope for turning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a decisive failure, forcing Putin to sue for peace. …. At a minimum, Ukraine would emerge … as a strong and independent nation, boasting a Western-backed military more than capable of blocking any new Russian aggression …. [T]hings […]
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“Next week, Ukraine will begin negotiations with the United States on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees under the Joint Declaration of Support …. These guarantees will be valid until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO. This was announced by Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak at the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities …. Andriy Yermak emphasized [that] […]
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The Kremlin was purportedly against amendments recently passed in the Russian parliament that, once signed into law, would expand the pool of eligible army recruits by raising the upper age limit for military conscription, the independent news website Vyorstka reported Thursday, citing multiple anonymous sources familiar with the matter. Under current Russian law, all men aged 18-27 must complete a […]
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“Russia blames U.S. ‘pressure’ for absences at Africa summit Summit takes place after Russia quit Black Sea grain deal” “… Putin [met] African leaders 10 days after Russia ended the Ukraine grain-export deal brokered by the [UN] and Turkey that had ensured safe passage of almost 33 million tons of crops via the Black Sea, helping to cool surging world […]
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“Kyiv’s forces are backed by thousands of troops and Western arms as U.S. official says: ‘This is the big test’” “… An enlarged Ukrainian force, whose ranks are swelled with Western-trained troops, and around 100 Western-supplied armoured vehicles, hope[d] to advance south to sever a land bridge to Crimea. The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, […]
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(Moscow Times – Pyotr Kozlov – July 26, 2023) Russia is doubling down in its efforts to block Ukrainian grain exports and maximize damage to Kyiv’s profits one week after it pulled out of a landmark grain deal securing Ukrainian grain exports. In addition to its systematic attacks on three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea near Odesa in recent […]
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(Moscow Times – Cameron Manley – July 26, 2023) Secret diplomatic talks are ongoing between former senior U.S. national security officials and high-ranking members of the Kremlin, a former U.S. official directly involved in the talks has confirmed to The Moscow Times. Earlier this month, NBC first reported the existence of these back-channel discussions, which involve former U.S. officials engaging […]
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“Since [Putin] withdrew on July 17 from a year-old agreement that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting … wheat and corn through the Black Sea … Putin has compounded the harm not only to [Ukraine] but also to millions … across the world who rely on it for grain. … [W]ithin hours, Russia unleashed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s export […]
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“Administration’s hopes that Kyiv could negotiate with Moscow fade with slow progress on the ground.” “… A potential stalemate would test … Biden’s stated strategy of pouring billions … in military aid into Ukraine, to enable Kyiv to negotiate … from a position of strength. It could also challenge the West’s continuing ability to supply weaponry … already in short […]
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“U.S. and Kyiv knew of shortfalls but Kyiv still launched offensive” “… [M]inefields, extensive fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block significant advances by Ukrainian troops. … [T]he campaign risks descending into a stalemate with the potential to burn through lives and equipment without a major shift in momentum. As the likelihood of any large-scale breakthrough by […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]
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“Swift loss of several tanks and infantry fighting vehicles has jolted Ukraine and its Western backers” “Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched at the start of June, is aimed at retaking some of the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow. The West provided dozens of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and trained thousands of Ukrainian troops for the campaign. … Kyiv’s […]
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“William J. Burns gave the most detailed public account yet by a U.S. official of the damage done to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia by last month’s uprising by the mercenary group” “… [C.I.A. Director] Burns … said that for much of the 36 hours of the [Wagner] rebellion last month, Russian security services, the military and decision makers […]
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“… Biden’s decision to give cluster munitions to Ukraine triggered widespread concern and protests, given that … the bombs … break up into smaller-sized bomblets … indiscriminately blanket[ing] the target area … result[ing] in the slaughter of civilians …. Even close allies like Canada and the UK bristled at the move to provide Kyiv with arms … banned by over […]
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“Russia and Ukraine both reluctant to cede territory, but some Western allies are losing patience.” “… The G7 recently made significant financial and military commitments to keep Ukraine armed and able to defend itself even after the conflict ends, however it may end. … sometimes called the porcupine approach, ensuring Ukraine has enough muscle to stop a re-invasion …. Ukraine […]
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“The recent public discussion in Russia on using nuclear weapons against the West was really a discussion about how Moscow can extricate itself from the difficult situation in which it finds itself—and what price it is willing to pay for a victory.” “Does Russia have the right to carry out a nuclear first strike, and has the time come to […]
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“While Ukraine has consistently surpassed the world’s expectations … it’s fair to say Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive has hit more roadblocks than expected. On FP Live … former CIA analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor explained … Russia’s troops are heavily entrenched; Moscow has planted deadly mines across vast swathes of land; and Kyiv has yet to commit a large part of its forces. […]
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“The prospect of a failed counter-offensive and significant territorial concessions would only embolden Russia and China.” “Since … last year, three options … for how this war would end[] [have been] victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement. … [T]he last may be more likely than previously thought. … The long-planned counter-offensive … […]
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“Ukraine has begun firing U.S.-provided cluster munitions against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine in a push to break up well-fortified Russian positions … according to Ukrainian officials …. Putin … threatened to retaliate against Ukraine ‘if [cluster munitions] are used against us,’ although Russia [reportedly] has already used cluster munitions in populated areas of Ukraine at least 24 times since […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]
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“The Kremlin’s decision to pull out of a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to get to the global market isn’t simply a matter of spite. While the agreement helped Kyiv and grain buyers, it hasn’t aided Russia, Moscow says.” “… [T]he Kremlin’s … decision to formally pull Russia out of the deal to keep Ukrainian grain and oilseeds flowing … […]
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