JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Needs a Plan B” – Time/ George Beebe, James Webb
“… U.S. officials had looked ahead to the … long-planned counteroffensive as the best hope for turning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a decisive failure, forcing Putin to sue for peace. …. At a minimum, Ukraine would emerge … as a strong and independent nation, boasting a Western-backed military more than capable of blocking any new Russian aggression …. [T]hings are not going as planned. … Ukraine has lost significant numbers of men and weapons … making negligible progress against formidable Russian defenses. … [Yet] [p]laying defense [would be] inherently easier than mounting a large offensive, and Ukraine’s odds of military success in such a shift would be high. … [I]t is far from clear that the Russians have the logistical and organizational capacity to reach Kyiv. The Ukrainian military has shown … [itself] capable of stymying Russia’s offensive operations, particularly with continued Western support …. [A] Ukrainian shift to defense would not, by itself, drive Russia to the bargaining table. …”