(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 1, 2023) Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Friday that Ukraine had lost over 125,000 troops since launching its counteroffensive in June, as well as 16,000 units of “various weapons.” “Total mobilization in Ukraine, the supply of Western weapons, and the introduction of the Ukrainian command’s strategic reserves into battle did not alter the situation on […]
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“… Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister in charge of ties with the U.S., non-proliferation and arms control, told … Izvestia … present circumstances were not ‘conducive’ to arms talks with Washington. ‘If the United States expects to win the next arms race … the Americans are mistaken,’ Izvestia [quoted] Ryabkov as saying …. [Meanwhile, in the past,] Putin told […]
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“… Almost two years into the grinding war … [families] around [Ukraine] are coming to terms with the prospect of a much longer and costlier conflict than … hoped for … one that some now acknowledge they’re not guaranteed to win. … 25,000 people … sign[ed] a petition to … Zelenskiy saying that military service cannot remain open-ended and calling […]
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“The German tabloid ‘Bild’ said …. President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz … plan to force Ukraine into peace talks next year by denying it the weapons needed to win. … Team Biden is more interested in avoiding confrontation with Russia than in defeating it. To oppose aid to Ukraine is to ensure a Russian victory, but funding [] […]
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“Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality … and prepare for a multiyear war and … the long-term containment of Russia…. Russia is not becoming … more amenable to compromise. … [T]he Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the … international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now …. Western and Ukrainian leaders need to […]
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“… The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy …. center[ing] on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling … a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads. Some believe … only two routes [lie] ahead: … the perpetuation of war — with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor — or negotiations that lead […]
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“… [F]or most Ukrainians, the main factor fueling their determination … is the sense that Russia’s genocidal objectives leave them … no choice …. Either Ukrainians defend themselves, or Ukraine … will cease to exist. Examples of the Russian military’s genocidal conduct … and the Kremlin’s genocidal intent continue to mount. … [H]uman rights investigators have released new evidence accusing […]
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“‘Putin is hurting the world’s most vulnerable communities, for Russia’s profit,’ Biden said. “The White House on Saturday reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine in a statement marking the anniversary of Holodomor, drawing parallels between Russia’s offensive and the 1930s Soviet-imposed famine that killed millions of Ukrainians. ‘Today, Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure is once more being deliberately targeted — this time by […]
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“FOX News correspondent Benjamin Hall sits down with … Zelensky … ZELENSKY: … Many times, we are ready for co-production. … [I]t can be win-win. We need licenses, and we can produce air defense …. [and] when you produce it for Ukraine and with Ukraine, you produce it also with Americans. … [T]he big part will be production in your […]
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“What they documented at the site of the March 9, 2022, hospital bombing — a destroyed maternity hospital, panicked and distraught mothers and children, a grievously wounded pregnant woman on a stretcher — would shock the world. … For the full story, watch 20 Days in Mariupol … on PBS and will be available to stream on YouTube on Tuesday, […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan, Angelina Flood – Nov. 16, 2023) A second Russian pollster reports that the share of Russians who advocate for peace negotiations with Ukraine has exceeded the share of their compatriots who favor continuing the war. The devil is in details, however. When It Comes to Ukraine, Doves Appear to Continue to Outnumber Hawks […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]
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“As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on.” “… [O]nly around 400 square km (154 square miles) of territory had been liberated [in the Ukrainian counteroffensive] …. Russia still occupies about 18% of Ukraine[.] [A]round half … it took in 2014 … annex[ing] Crimea and grabb[ing] the eastern Donbas[.] [T]he rest is … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]
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“Ukraine allies in U.S. Congress begin uphill battle for help Assistance caught in partisan fight over immigration” “… Ukraine’s congressional backers are … in a tough battle over an expansive aid package … now enmeshed in a partisan fight over border policies and torn from must-pass bills that would prompt swift action. The soonest Congress could complete negotiations and pass […]
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“Kyiv is low on money and time, its advocates say, but in Congress the desire to continue funding its fight against Russia has reached new lows.” “Ukraine is running out of money and time, its proponents say. But congressional interest in financing its fight against invading Russian forces has dipped lower than ever, and rising competition from other national security […]
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“Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.” “… Washington and its allies have been remarkably effective at tackling the most urgent aspects of this problem: staving off Ukraine’s collapse, keeping it well-supplied with advanced weapons and real-time […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Mikhail Alexseev, Serhii Dembitskyi – Nov. 14, 2023) Mikhail Alexseev is a Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University. Serhii Dembitskyi is Deputy Director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Not only do the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians remain resolute in their commitment to driving Russia […]
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A Washington Post editorial addresses the war in Ukraine and how Western allies can impact how it unfolds. “… Ukraine has opened a corridor for shipping grain, pushing back Russian naval forces with missile and drone strikes. … Ukrainian forces have exacted an enormous toll on Russian armor and personnel. In battles for … Avdiivka … Russian casualties hit 900 […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]
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“… Nov. 7 in Moscow, the Kremlin defiantly renounced its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), once thought of as a pillar of European stability. … NATO countries quickly followed suit, suspending … treaty obligations. The CFE is not the only arms control agreement … thrown onto the garbage heap of history in recent years. […]
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“Ukrainian president has denied tensions but displayed rare public anger in recent appearance as counter-offensive stalls.” “… [M]onths of heavy losses in a counter-offensive … [and] what many in Ukraine have described as a stalemate[] [have] [led] to reports that Kyiv was being urged to consider peace talks …. [T]ensions between Ukraine’s political and military leaderships … normally kept private, […]
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“… Ukraine, the United States, and the [EU] … [w]orking together … have not only preserved the Ukrainian state, but stood up to a bully whose nihilism harms the entire world. Putin backs far-right and extremist movements in Europe, provides thugs to support African dictatorships, and colludes with China, Iran, Venezuela, and other autocracies. … Putin hoped the war would […]
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“Russian forces are encircling Avdiivka, a new war map [from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War] shows, as Moscow is said to have accumulated around 40,000 troops for a fresh assault on the eastern Donetsk town. Russian forces launched a major offensive [there] in October[, yet] Avdiivka has been the target of [Russian] aggression since 2014, when … […]
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“… Some 4.8m [Ukrainians] lost their jobs … when Russia attacked. Unemployment is estimated [at] 18.4% in October … [down] from [over] 30% in [early] 2022 … [yet still] well above pre-war levels. … [Reportedly] 17% of Ukrainian workers have changed professions …. American officials estimate … at least 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died … [with] up to 120,000 more […]
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“‘It would only be fair,’ Galushchenko says of attacking Russian oil and gas in response to possible attacks against Ukraine’s grid this winter.” “Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said …. Galushchenko … said Russia has […]
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“Roman Chervinsky, a colonel in Ukraine’s special operations forces, was integral to the brazen sabotage operation, say people familiar with planning.” “… Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s special operations forces, [reportedly] was the ‘coordinator’ of … Nord Stream [sabotage] operation … logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities […]
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“With so much in the war against Russia hinging on refilling the ranks of soldiers, efforts are underway to draw more Ukrainian women into the army.” “… [F]ighting in Ukraine has bogged down in vicious battles of attrition along a zigzag [southeastern] front line …. [S]teady suppl[ies] of weapons and personnel are crucial … Ukraine … benefit[s] [from] … Western-donated […]
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“Busy armaments factories are depriving other industries of scarce workers” “Russia’s army and … weapons factories are sucking in a growing number of workers as Moscow braces itself for a long war … leaving civilian sectors with painful labour shortages and destabilising the … economy. … [L]abour shortages have helped expose [economic] weaknesses … contradict[ing] the [Kremlin’s] rosy picture …. […]
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(Moscow Times – Nov. 9, 2023) Ukraine on Thursday criticized calls for Kyiv to hold negotiations with Russia, following media reports that its Western allies were pushing for peace talks in the wake of an underwhelming Ukrainian counteroffensive. Nearly two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sprawling front line remains largely static as both Ukrainian and Russian forces struggle […]
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“MARGARET BRENNAN: … Your president has said that … the war in the Middle East is diverting some attention from the war that’s happening in Ukraine. And he said that’s part of Russia’s goals. So I want to hear from you, where you think the conflict is, because I know that Ukraine has said it is running very short of […]
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“NATO member[s] … that signed a key Cold War-era security treaty froze their participation in the pact on Tuesday just hours after Russia pulled out, raising fresh questions about the future of [European] arms control agreements …. Many of NATO’s 31 allies are parties to the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe … aimed at preventing Cold War rivals […]
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“The world’s attention is on Israel and Gaza, and some U.S. and Ukrainian military officials consider the war to be at an impasse — an assessment … Zelenskyy disputed on ‘Meet the Press.’” “… Zelenskyy rejected claims that the war with Russia has reached a stalemate … as his military’s struggling counteroffensive and the war in the Middle East threaten […]
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“… Putin [reportedly] has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that will keep him in power until least 2030 …. After defusing an armed mutiny by the leader of the Wagner mercenary group … Putin has moved to shore up support among his core base in the security forces, the armed forces and with regional voters […]
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“General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate” “Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance … just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east ‘to take a town six by six kilometres.’ … Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, [said] … ‘Just like in the first world war we have reached […]
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“… [E]vidence attesting to Russia[n] atrocities in Ukraine … represents a small fraction measured against the likely scale of atrocities …. Notwithstanding the … accounts detailing systematic torture, rape, execution and other forms of abuse … independent investigators are denied access to territory seized by Russian forces. … [T]he Kremlin’s commanders have time to eliminate traces of physical evidence as […]
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“Ukraine’s army is in dire need of manpower, an aide to its president told Time magazine. The lack of soldiers means Ukraine isn’t able to make proper use of Western-provided gear, he said. As well as suffering casualties, many Ukrainian men are trying to escape enlistment.” “A Ukrainian official said Ukraine’s army is suffering a manpower shortage that is hampering […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]
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“… Biden [has] … emphasized that … missiles and artillery shells … sent overseas are made in America, providing a local economic boost. … [T]hat may not be a winning argument for [a] significant number of Republican lawmakers …. ‘We are $33 TRILLION in debt, and Ukraine is not the 51st state,’ [posted] Rep. Barry Moore, R-Ala. …. When Russia […]
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“Moscow has gambled on pouring troops, bombs and artillery into large-scale assault on Avdiivka.” “… For more than two weeks, Russian forces have [targeted Ukraine’s] … eastern industrial city of Avdiivka, using so-called human waves, airdropped bombs and heavy artillery …. Russia [reportedly] has deployed at least three battalions with thousands of soldiers in the fight for Avdiivka … start[ing] […]
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“More than a year and a half since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, defense companies have been struggling to hire workers, untangle supply chains and restart mothballed production lines.” “Billions … spent by the federal government to arm Ukraine and replenish U.S. military stockpiles have been slow to translate into a significant number of new [U.S.] jobs … as defense manufacturers […]
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“The fight for the battered city of Avdiivka has emerged this fall as the fiercest battle of the war. Waves of Russian assaults have not broken through so far.” “… [T]wo [city] landmarks have been the focus of furious fighting since Oct. 10 as thousands of Russian troops began a major new offensive in eastern Ukraine to seize [long-coveted] Avdiivka […]
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“The former White House Russia expert on Biden’s speech linking the two wars—and how Putin might cash in.” “… [T]here are valid reasons to worry about … a wider conflict [] in the Middle East. … [A]s the United States expends time, money, arms, and political capital … containing that crisis, it gives actors in other arenas an opportunity to […]
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“Ukrainian forces are desperately trying to battle through deep Russian defenses along the south and east of the country before winter sets in. Ukraine has a narrowing window of opportunity for making gains before the weather turns and the infamous muddy season, known as ‘rasputitsa’ in Russian and ‘bezdorizhzhia’ in Ukrainian, arrives.’” “While the world is distracted by geopolitical turmoil […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 860 – Polina Sinovets – Oct. 23, 2023 – PDF: click here) Dr. Polina Sinovets is a Founder and a Head of the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP) at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University (Ukraine). This memo is based on a forthcoming NATO Defense College policy brief, “Fifty Shades of Red: Where Does Russia Draw […]
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(Moscow Times – Oct. 25, 2023) Over 15% of Russians who left the country following the invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s “partial” military mobilization have since returned, either temporarily or permanently, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing new research. Researchers Emil Kamalov and Ivetta Sergeeva from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy conducted a long-term survey of 5,000 […]
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“Kyiv is converting U.S. missiles for new uses and prioritising joint ventures with western companies.” “… [Ukrainian] Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal [said] … ‘We understand we should produce [ammunition] here in Ukraine because … [globally ammunition is] depleted …. [Ukraine learns from] its dramatic increase in domestic drone manufacturing, he said, … up from ‘a few dozen last year’ to […]
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“… [A DOD] official said … tens of thousands of 155-millimeter artillery shells promised to Ukraine would be diverted to Israel. … an example of the American weapons … [reportedly] needed in both wars, which could stretch … U.S. capacity to keep up …. especially … if Israel’s expected [Gaza] ground offensive … lasts for months. … Ukraine and Israel […]
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(Moscow Times – Anastasia Tenisheva – Oct. 21, 2023) MOSCOW — Loud music, people dancing and faces covered with glitter — today, parties in Russia’s capital look like parties anywhere. “As long as there is an opportunity to enjoy life, then you need to do it,” Daria, a Russian in her 20s, told The Moscow Times at a techno music […]
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