(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]
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“Oleksandr Syrsky aims to shore up eastern town, with troops fearing heavy losses as western supplies run short” “… Avdiivka [is] an early test for Ukraine’s new [commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrsky] and [a Ukrainian] army running short of ammunition and men as western military support falters. The battle for the industrial town 20km north of … Donetsk has been raging […]
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“… The July 2023 NATO summit … settl[ed] on an ambiguously worded communiqué declaring … NATO could invite Ukraine to join ‘when Allies agree and conditions are met.’ … The absence of a clear plan … has given Putin more confidence that he can wait out the West … in a war of attrition. … [T]he lack of resolve … […]
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“Long-winded, often factually erroneous arguments back his conviction that Russia has a historic right to Ukraine” “[In his] two-hour interview with Tucker Carlson … Putin recounted events of centuries past and trotted out 17th-century documents … expounding on deeply held views about the past, many widely disputed by historians, that have driven him to launch the continent’s bloodiest conflict since […]
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“The KGB agent turned warlord president has shaped Russia with resentment and force. As Donald Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies if he returns to the White House, Putin’s poised to take advantage.” “… Putin is attempting to strike his own decisive blow against the U.S. and Europe to reshape [the] global order to Russia’s advantage … backed by military […]
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“… IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath … said decisions about what to do with [Russian] assets rested solely with countries holding them. She declined to offer an opinion on how they should be used. Gopinath said the IMF would evaluate the impact of any decisions … but the IMF would not be involved in the decisions. … [S]he […]
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“… Zelensky announced … that [former commander-in-chief General Valerii] Zaluzhny would be replaced by Oleksandr Syrsky, … Commander of Ukrainian Land Forces since 2019. … George Beebe … former director of Russia analysis at the CIA and ex-staff adviser to former Vice President Dick Cheney on Russian affairs … told Newsweek … the Zaluzhny decision could ‘erupt into a broader […]
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“… Putin spent the first 30 minutes of his two-hour interview with … Tucker Carlson giving a revisionist historical tirade on the founding myths of Russia and Ukraine, the breakup of the Soviet Union and NATO expansionism. From there, admonishing Carlson when he interrupted, Putin pontificated on everything from the war in Ukraine and relations with the United States, the […]
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“… If Ukraine can’t get what it needs to beat Russia, what kind of deal could it make? … Putin may accept a peace deal that gives him the territory he occupies now and that forces Ukraine to stay neutral, halting its integration with Europe. Ukrainians call this bargain a capitulation. But without additional American aid, they may be forced […]
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“President says country’s leadership needs a ‘reset’ as he faces battlefield pressures and flagging Western support” “… Zelensky’s deliberations over Zaluzhniy and other officials [have] add[ed] domestic political drama to other pressures, including Russian military offensives that are inching forward and political deadlock in the U.S. over a proposed new aid package. … The raft of challenges … test the […]
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“Leaders are sounding alarms about growing threats, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is wary of pushing the Kremlin, and his own ambivalent public, too far.” “Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia … that they must speedily rebuild the country’s military in case … Putin does not plan to stop […]
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“… [I]nside [Ukraine] … polls show [Zaluzhny ] is even more popular — and more symbolic of Ukraine’s resistance — than [Zelensky]. … As risky as the move is for domestic stability, it does still seem likely [] Zaluzhny will be switched out …. In some respects, the pressures of war are being felt symmetrically in both Ukraine and Russia. […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]
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“… [A]fter weeks of negotiation, the EU approved a 50 billion euro funding package for Ukraine … a much needed economic boost[] while the U.S. bill remains held up in Congress. On a recent episode of Carnegie Connects, host Aaron David Miller discussed … Russia’s war against Ukraine with Carnegie senior fellows Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella. … * * […]
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“[Editor’s Note: Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2021. This article was written before an expected announcement of his dismissal. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read a detailed CNN analysis of this article here, and the full essay here.] “… It is well known by now that a central driver […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Associate Professor, Department of Communication Studies, Colorado State University; Evgeniya Pyatovskaya, PhD candidate, Department of Communication Studies, University of South Florida – Feb. 1, 2024) Two years into the war with Ukraine, today’s Russia can best be understood through the lens of a slogan that once appeared in a Solovki special prison, part […]
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“Ukraine and some of its strongest supporters are pushing NATO to formally invite Kyiv to become a member … during a major upcoming summit, but … [reportedly] are facing significant behind-the-scenes pushback from the United States and Germany …. Kyiv has backing from Eastern European [NATO members] … including Poland and the Baltic states … [think Ukrainian] NATO membership [would […]
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“Ukraine aid decision comes against the backdrop of growing fears about Russia’s threat to Europe’s security” “[EU] leaders agreed to a $54 billion budget aid package for Ukraine … Thursday, locking in financing … for the next four years … [a mix of long-term loans and grants,] a major boost for Ukraine, which could have started to run short of […]
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“… By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century …. Breakthrough … has long required permissive conditions … now absent in Ukraine: a defender … whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are […]
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“… In a world in which the United States’ principal rivals — China and Russia — are led by personalistic autocrats operating within small and insular circles of advisers, gaining insight into leaders’ intentions is both more important and more difficult than ever. Just as 9/11 ushered in a new era for the CIA, so did Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. […]
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Subject: “Full-scale Invasion” Date: Tue, 30 Jan 2024 From: John Evans <evansinamerica@aol.com> [John Evans is an American former diplomat who served as United States ambassador to Armenia.] David, like you, I have been struck by the near-universal adoption of this phrase. I believe its original intent may have been to distinguish the February 2022 events from the earlier 2014 take-over […]
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“Ukraine’s SBU security service said on Saturday it had uncovered a corruption scheme in the purchase of arms … totalling the equivalent of about $40 million. … The fight to root out endemic corruption remains a major issue as Ukraine presses its bid to secure [EU] membership …. The SBU said an investigation … ‘exposed officials of the Ministry of […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/blogs/focus-ukraine – Dan White – Jan. 25, 2024) Dan White is a Kennan Institute Staff Assistant Intern for the Fall 2023. Dan is currently pursuing a Master of International Public Policy at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Although Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive brought only modest results, there are broad indications that the cumulative […]
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“Men who are hiding from the war tell The Daily Beast they do not trust the military system and fear they’ll be sent to the frontline without proper training.” “… Zelensky says … military commanders seek an additional 450,000 to 500,000 men to compensate for casualties and expand the army in 2024. Finding men to replace the fallen is becoming […]
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“General Sir Patrick Sanders says volunteers must be prepared for conflict, in speech No 10 didn’t want made public” “Civilians must be trained and equipped to form a ‘citizen army’ of tens of thousands in case Britain is dragged into war with a country such as Russia …. General Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the general staff [said], also … […]
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“Civilian wages outpace military pay for fighting in Ukraine Kremlin has avoided another call-up ahead of March elections” “Russia’s war in Ukraine is intensifying an acute deficit of workers … igniting a race to increase salaries that threatens the Kremlin’s ability to replenish the armed forces. The competition for employees has pushed wages up at a double-digit pace and made […]
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(Moscow Times – Jan. 22, 2024) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday signed a decree calling for the preservation of Ukrainian national identity in Russia. The decree, announced to coincide with Ukraine’s Day of Unity on Jan. 22, states that “Russia has systematically destroyed national identity and oppressed Ukrainians in the lands historically inhabited by them,” namely the “modern Krasnodar, […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]
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“… Russia’s resilient war economy, expanded materiel production, and population edge, combined with uncertainty about the West’s continued support of Ukraine … give Putin reason to double down. … [A]s … frontlines stabilize, the sky above will fill with ever-greater numbers of drones. Ukraine aims to acquire more than two million drones in 2024 — half of which it plans […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]
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“After its summer counteroffensive ended in failure, Kyiv is shifting to a new strategy as it prepares itself for a third year of war.” “… Ukraine’s military prospects appear to be dimming … [as it] abandon[s] hopes of a swift victory and … gird[s] itself for a drawn-out war. One western official … [sees] ‘little prospect of an operational breakthrough […]
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“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]
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“No grounds for arms-control talks with U.S., Lavrov says Russia accuses U.S. of escalating confrontation over Ukraine” “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed the U.S. over … Ukraine and warned on the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers … [while] rul[ing] out … discussions on strategic security …. He accused the U.S. and … European allies of escalating … confrontation […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 871 – Tetyana Malyarenko, Stefan Wolff – Jan. 12, 2024 – click here for PDF) Part 2. Wartime Mediation This memo is the second in a two-part assessment of the effectiveness of mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian war during its gray-zone (2014-2022) and conventional (2022-present) stages. Read Part 1 here There is growing support for the […]
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“… When asked, [in] rapid-fire questions, about his most difficult … negotiations, [Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro] Kuleba said: ‘The most difficult talks are those in which you feel simply that you want to go and punch your opposite number in the nose, but you really can’t do that. … [T]his occurred two or three times. One occasion was with Lavrov […]
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“What seemed at first to be the start of a Third World War has turned out to be more akin to a Second Yugoslav War: a local conflict on the edge of Europe triggered by a slow-motion imperial collapse.” “Throughout 2022, Europe was in shock. … Russia, owner of the continent’s most powerful armed forces, really was capable of sending […]
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“… Putin … fac[es] a deluge of domestic difficulties as Moscow’s military struggles nearly two years after invading Ukraine. Putin … has been the focus of … increasing … criticism … over issues that include inflation, winter blackouts and the treatment of soldiers in Ukraine. Despite … recent … relentless Russian air and ground attacks against Ukraine, Moscow has seen […]
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“If the White House demands that Kyiv hold Russia at bay rather than reconquer its own lands, it must also provide the armor and ammo.” “Speaking to … Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will deliver a message from … Joe Biden. The White House wants Ukraine to change […]
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“Wars of attrition, … what large-scale conflicts between militarily sophisticated adversaries such as Russia and Ukraine tend to become, are usually decided by … the better arms industry. Russia’s economy is nearly 14 times the size of Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are so much greater that it should be able to win. … Both America and […]
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“Leaders of talks on … Zelenskyy’s peace formula … said a growing number of countries are working to help set the groundwork for Russia to join one day, a[] … distant goal as the nearly two-year war grinds on [with] neither side willing to cede ground. The fourth such meeting of national security advisers takes place in … Davos, where […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]
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“The report found that American officials and diplomats had failed to quickly or fully account for all of the nearly 40,000 weapons sent to the front.” “More than $1 billion worth of shoulder-fired missiles, kamikaze drones and night-vision goggles … sent [by the United States] to Ukraine have not been properly tracked by American officials, a new [DOD Inspector General] […]
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“[Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council] warned … Thursday that … Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia with arms supplied by the United States and its allies would risk a nuclear response from Moscow … [also saying] that some Ukrainian military commanders were considering hitting missile launch sites inside Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles. … Putin […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – Jan. 11, 2024) Since December, my colleagues at Russia Matters and I have been monitoring1 how Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have sparred over who should assume prime responsibility for the plan to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. As we watched the two employ what Sun Tzu would […]
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“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]
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“Sullivan likely to raise strategy issue with Ukraine leader Tensions seen as war heads into third year with aid stalled” “The U.S. wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia’s invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with … in Davos … and continue to push the point in the […]
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“… Ukraine has mastered the production of short-range drones, which both sides have used extensively throughout the war. Now Ukraine is stepping up the development of drones that can strike more distant targets in Russia, Crimea and the Black Sea. These attacks typically involve around a dozen drones, often accompanying cruise missiles. Since December Ukraine has carried out some attacks […]
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“… Israelis and Palestinians have been battling for more than 50 years without gaining lasting security. Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine began as a fever dream of … Putin. He failed to conquer Kyiv … but the bloody war of attrition has cost Russia an … 320,000 casualties and Ukraine … 170,000 to 190,000. The biggest national security question for […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]
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“Funding for more weapons and ammunition is held up in fight over border policy; ‘We’re out of money’” “The Washington stalemate over U.S. [border] policy … is … reverberat[ing] on the Ukraine battlefield, where Kyiv’s troops are running out of ammunition and the Pentagon says it can’t provide more without emptying its own arsenal. … [T]he Pentagon has run out […]
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