(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]
» Read more
“… Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. … [and] authoritarian regimes most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders … [W]ere Putin to die … or be removed by insiders, the regime would … likely endure …. One development … could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. […]
» Read more
“Next month’s meeting of Western allies will leave the war-torn country mostly empty-handed.” “… [In] 2008 … NATO officially welcomed Ukraine’s aspirations for membership …. Now, after a full-scale Russian invasion, [Ukraine] is being asked to wait longer, without a timeline …. [T]he alliance … offers [Ukraine] perhaps the only chance at dodging future Russian attacks on its sovereignty. … […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]
» Read more
“Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely.” “… [T]he new military drive will influence discussions of future support for Ukraine … [and] how to guarantee its future. … [U]nclear … is … what the United States, Europe and Ukraine view as a ‘successful’ counteroffensive. … Zelensky has […]
» Read more
“The United States learned of a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines three months before they were damaged … The Washington Post reported … citing [online] leaked information …. [washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/] The CIA [reportedly] learned last June, through a European spy agency, that a six-person team of Ukrainian special operations forces intended to blow up the Russia-to-Germany […]
» Read more
“Elena Kolbasnikova, a Ukrainian national who lives in the western German city of Cologne and has spoken out in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, argues that she has a right to freedom of speech.” “A Ukrainian national … liv[ing] in Cologne … hop[ing] to get a Russian passport …, Elena Kolbasnikova was looking at a [German] prison sentence … […]
» Read more
“… Q: Where do you see the most exciting research/debates happening in your field? I see a lot of exciting debates happening in the fields of both Russian Studies and Illiberalism. In the field of Russian Studies, there are mixed feelings, obviously, because of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: a lot of pessimism regarding the future of conducting research in […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Moscow blaming West at every turn: Vladimir Putin attacked the West on May 9, claiming that Russia’s future depended on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as he attended a slimmed-down military parade to mark victory over Nazi Germany in WWII, MT reports. “A real war has once again been unleashed against our motherland,” he […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – April 26, 2023) President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Tuesday authorizing temporary control over foreign companies’ Russia-based assets. The move marks Russia’s latest retaliation to the freezing of its assets abroad over the invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s decree lists the Russian divisions of the German energy giant Uniper and Finland’s Fortum whose shares had already been taken […]
» Read more
“Senior U.S. envoys travels to Balkans, an information battleground.” “The State Department is increasing efforts to push back against … Kremlin[] disinformation … even as Russian propagandists have sought to exploit the extensive leak of purported U.S. classified information. … [A] senior U.S. envoy outlined proposals to help [Balkan] governments … ferret out Russian and Chinese disinformation sites on their […]
» Read more
“… Countries closer to Russia, such as Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, see the war quite differently. Their flinty perception … draws on deep historical traumas. … The atrocities Russia inflicts now on Ukraine echo these experiences and awaken new fears. The east Europeans’ intense support for the Ukrainian cause rests not on the desire to back a winner […]
» Read more
“A spring counteroffensive against Russian forces is designed to tilt the balance, but picture after is unclear.” “Western leaders are beginning to have a clearer vision of how they hope the war in Ukraine will end. What is missing is any plan to make it happen. The hope … is that a Ukrainian counteroffensive — boosted by Western tanks and […]
» Read more
“Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s summit in Moscow was nominally meant to be about bringing peace to Ukraine. But it appears to have strengthened the countries’ partnership against the West.” “When … Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow [last week] for a three-day summit with … Putin, one of the most talked about [subjects] … was a Chinese-mediated settlement for the […]
» Read more
“The [EU]’s plans to seize Russian assets … prioritising state assets of around US$350 billion (S$466.5 billion), [reportedly] are unprecedented and tricky …. ‘Nothing is simple’ when it comes to finding the massive sums intended to be diverted to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction … Anders Ahnlid said …. But Europe plans to be ‘innovative’ …. Private assets are often protected […]
» Read more
“Sanctions have squeezed the economy undergirding Putin’s war in Ukraine. The West can tighten the screws more, especially on Moscow’s energy revenue.” “… [S]anctions are draining Russian state revenue and shaking the country’s financial underpinnings, gradually isolating Moscow from the global financial system. But they have not sapped [the Russian Federation’s] will or capacity to fight — or triggered the […]
» Read more
“There are numerous examples of French museums that have participated in the propagation of Russian imperialist narratives through art, according to the academic Olena Havrylchyk, who calls for ‘the decolonization of Ukrainian art.” “On February 10, 2023, the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City recognized Arkhip Kuindzhi and Ilya Repin as Ukrainian painters, whereas they were previously presented […]
» Read more
“Why has it taken a war of conquest for experts to recognize Russia’s nature as a vast imperial enterprise?” “… Russia’s nature as an imperial power is [historically and geopolitically] incontrovertible. After World War I, the Russian Empire avoided the permanent dismemberment that befell other multi-ethnic land empires …. The Soviet Union … reconquered most of the non-Russian lands … […]
» Read more
“Russia’s feeble economy cannot compete with Western production.” “As the war in Ukraine grinds on, discussion over Western assistance to the Ukrainians has focused on sophisticated weapons: missiles, battle tanks, precision munitions, and combined air operations – aka ‘fighter jets.’ [Yet] the key issue … now is supplies of ordinary dumb artillery shells. … One should … note that Russia […]
» Read more
“Russia’s ruptured undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines [reportedly] are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them …. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, each consisting of two pipes, were built by … Gazprom to pump 110 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas a year to Germany under […]
» Read more
“Zelensky pledges to pursue victory against Russia this year as Western weapons flow to Ukraine.” “… Ukraine has lost tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers … and many of its cities have been reduced to rubble …. Russia … [reportedly] has suffered some 200,000 military casualties in Ukraine .. [and] currently controls just under 18% of Ukrainian territory, including […]
» Read more
“… Ukrainians will never give up their goal of liberating every inch of Ukrainian territory — nor should they. But as Zelensky and his supporters in the West consider options on the road ahead, they should review the postwar history of West Germany. By building a vibrant free-market democracy within larger European institutions secured by a U.S.-led NATO, West Germany […]
» Read more
“Russia …. angrily rejected … Moldovan [President Maia Sandu’s] claims about an alleged plot by Moscow to overthrow her government and accused Moldovan authorities of trying to distract … attention away from … domestic problems. … Sandu said Monday that the purported Russian plot envisioned attacks on government buildings, hostage-takings and other violent actions by groups of saboteurs …. In […]
» Read more
“… [Russia’s] war [in Ukraine reportedly] will be expensive, cost lives and likely last at least a few years — or even become interminable. It will tax … American and European defense industries, especially when it comes to munitions, and could cause economic ruin in Russia. All this while the possibility of nuclear escalation remains. … [W]inning [reportedly] will depend […]
» Read more
(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov – Feb. 3, 2023) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Meduza. Russia’s economy is simple and hard to break. Because of the West’s tardy introduction of crucial sanctions and Moscow’s ability to mobilize resources, the costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Russian economy […]
» Read more
“The uncoupling from Russia has not happened, partly because executives have not woken up to the return of geopolitics.” “… At the end of [2022], [reportedly] fewer than 9 per cent of the 1,404 EU and G7 companies with operations in Russia before the invasion of Ukraine had left the country …. Where there have been divestments, it has tended […]
» Read more
“… Ukrainian officials have warned Russia is preparing for a fresh offensive to coincide with the first anniversary of its full-scale invasion … Moscow began mobilizing roughly 300,000 additional men last September after Ukrainian forces drove Russia out of swaths of territory …. More than half … [reportedly] are likely to be deployed in any new offensive …. [with] [t]he […]
» Read more
“Western sanctions aren’t keeping iPhones off Russian shelves or Hollywood films out of Moscow’s theaters. ‘Parallel imports’ are making Russia’s economy more resilient than expected.” “… Frustrating U.S. and European sanctions hawks, Russia appears to be weathering the West’s attempts to damage its economy in response to the invasion of Ukraine. … Via what are known as ‘parallel imports,’ Russian […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatter.org – Jan. 30, 2023) No Russian government would ever accept Ukrainian independence, George Kennan warned in a 1948 paper. The United States should not encourage Ukraine’s separation from Russia, but if it were to occur, Washington should not interfere even though an independent Ukraine would be “challenged eventually from the Russian side,” according to Kennan’s paper, […]
» Read more
“The UN General Assembly’s 2 March 2022 resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for … immediate withdrawal … was adopted by … 141 votes out of 193[]. However … 17 of the 35 countries that abstained – and one that voted against – were African, and eight African countries did not vote at all. …. European commentators’ simplistic […]
» Read more
“A report documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine. By November 2022, fewer than 9% had divested at least one subsidiary in Russia, and the research team noted that these divestment rates barely changed over the fourth quarter of […]
» Read more
“The resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new [I.M.F.] report … suggesting … [Western] efforts … to weaken Moscow because of its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering. … [T]he I.M.F. predicts … Russian output will expand 0.3 percent … this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts …. A … […]
» Read more
“With the delivery of Leopard battle tanks from Germany, the Ukraine war is entering into a new and dangerous phase. Olaf Scholz must … clean up the political damage … hold his country together and find a path … to end the conflict. … NATO has … stayed out of the war, but … wants to be prepared. … [NATO] […]
» Read more
“Moscow could increase defenses or attacks but is already struggling to gain ground.” “Months before modern Western tanks reach Ukraine, their anticipated delivery has the power to shift battlefield dynamics by forcing Russia to act faster than it had planned — or is ready — to do. The U.S., Germany, Poland and other [Ukrainian] allies … said they would send […]
» Read more
“Germany will send 14 of its modern Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine as part of a coordinated push with the U.S. and other allies to escalate their support for Kyiv ahead of an expected Russian offensive …. follow[ing] … intense diplomacy between Berlin and Washington, which is expected to announce a donation of up to 50 U.S.-made Abrams M1 […]
» Read more
“As defense ministers of NATO and other nations met … and tried to resolve … divisions over supplying Ukraine with the heavy weapons it needs to drive Russian forces out of its territory … there are very different visions of the end state of the war and the region’s future. Among European countries, especially, there are stark differences … [with] […]
» Read more
“… Ukraine has won repeated and decisive victories …, clawed back some of its lands and cities and withstood lethal assaults on … infrastructure[] [but] the war is at a stalemate. Still, the fighting rages on, including a ferocious battle for … Bakhmut in … eastern Donetsk …. Cruel, seemingly random Russian missile strikes at civilian targets have become a […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Jan. 17, 2023) The Kremlin has given major Russian companies permission to disregard the votes of shareholders from so-called “unfriendly” countries this year as a means of combatting the effectiveness of Western sanctions. The decree, signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, stipulates that the regulations apply to big firms in the energy, engineering, and trade […]
» Read more
“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]
» Read more
“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]
» Read more
“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]
» Read more
“… Pressure had been building … for Brussels to come up with ways to seize Russian assets and hold top Russian leaders accountable for the war [in Ukraine]. European Commission officials … said that because of … state immunity, they were unable to confiscate central-bank assets, but were now proposing that member states and their international partners establish a fund […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Li-Chen Sim – Nov. 23, 2022) Li-Chen Sim is an assistant professor at Khalifa University in the United Arab Emirates and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. One of Vladimir Lenin’s most enduring phrases regarding political power has been “kto kogo?”1 — “who [will beat] whom?” This same question is […]
» Read more
“… Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration … accus[ing] … Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. … The biggest point of tension [recently]… has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal [European] objections … […]
» Read more
“Russia is using energy as a weapon. How deadly will it be?” “To win … in Ukraine … Putin needs the West to stop supporting his adversary. His best opportunity to drive a wedge between them will arrive this winter. … In August [] Putin turned off … a big pipeline to Europe. Fuel prices surged, squeezing the economies of […]
» Read more
(oilprice.com – Josh Owens – Nov. 21, 2022) Russia has already lost over 90% of its previous top European market—northern Europe—as shipments have slumped to below 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in recent weeks from more than 1.2 million bpd before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg’s estimates. The EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil […]
» Read more
“Ukrainian officials are asking the U.S. and Europe for parts to fix its electric grid and gas systems.” “… Ukrainian officials have … asked … American counterparts and more than half a dozen European countries for assistance preparing for a prolonged period with limited electricity and gas …. Ukraine needs key components like generators, pipes and valves to repair … […]
» Read more
“The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict” “The rocket that landed in Poland on November 15th, killing two people, was … not … from Russia. But the Ukrainian interceptor which fell to the ground would never have been launched were it not for Russia’s brutal aerial assault on Ukraine that day — its […]
» Read more