JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. officials think Ukraine could negotiate with Russia. Some Europeans aren’t so sure.” – NBC

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“‘There is clearly alarm among central Europeans that this is the beginning of a process that will force Ukraine to accept a deal,’ one analyst said.” “A split appeared to be opening this week among Ukraine’s supporters …. Some U.S. political and military officials have questioned whether the war could ever be concluded through force, with diplomatic talks the inevitable […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s economy enters recession with 4% contraction” – Financial Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Western sanctions after invasion of Ukraine contribute to sharpest downturn since pandemic.” “… The contraction follows sweeping restrictions from the U.S. and Europe on Russia’s energy and financial sectors, including a block on half of the central bank’s $640bn in foreign exchange reserves. About 1,000 western companies followed suit, curtailing … Russian operations, while hundreds of thousands of people left […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “In the global meme wars, it’s time to side with the elves against the trolls” – Washington Post/ Thomas Kent

File Image of Laptop Computer, Tables and Mobile Device, adapted from image at energy.gov

“The Kremlin’s intensive use of lies and conspiracy theories to defend its invasion of Ukraine has once again dramatized the need for smart policies to counter disinformation. …Perhaps it’s time we learned something from Eastern Europe’s online armies of nongovernment activists — many of them volunteers. They possess authenticity and expertise that outside governments cannot match. … Volunteer activists fight […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Can Ukraine Survive the Winter? What the Country Needs to Hold Out” – Foreign Affairs

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure …. successfully attack[ing] 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with … missiles and Iranian drones. … bomb[ing] energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, [reportedly] 80 percent of residents are without water …. Economists project … Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sabotage at sea; Vladimir Putin says the world’s energy infrastructure is ‘at risk'” – The Economist

Gas Flame file photo

“He would know. And internet infrastructure is vulnerable too.” “On October 12th … Putin … gave an ominous warning. Energy infrastructure around the world was now ‘at risk,’ he said. … a month after explosions tore through Nord Stream 1 and 2 …. Russia denies responsibility  …. But few doubt … the Kremlin did it. …. The attacks occurred just […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The uncomfortable need to talk about diplomacy with Russia” – Washington Post

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“The United States and … European partners continue to provide military aid and arms to Kyiv in the hope that Ukraine can press its current advantage, reclaim territories seized by Russia over the past eight months and, at the very least, win itself a stronger hand whenever the warring parties do attempt meaningful negotiations. The Kremlin … has responded to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Top Ukraine Commander Sees Invasion Faltering in South, but Missile Strikes Take Toll on Ukraine” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Ukrainian power infrastructure takes heavy damage.” “Russia’s top military commander in Ukraine signaled Moscow’s hold on the southern city of Kherson was weakening, and Ukraine said Russian strikes since last week had knocked out some 30% of its power-plant infrastructure, raising concerns of countrywide blackouts. … Western military analysts have long said that Russian forces would be advised to leave […]

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Why the West is Losing the Global Information War Over Ukraine and How It Can Be Fixed

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Peter Rutland – Oct. 17, 2022) Peter Rutland is Professor of Government at Wesleyan University. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law and strikes at the core principles of the UN. This has been widely accepted by political elites and the public at large in the United States and across Europe. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Defending the skies: How the West is helping Ukraine beat Russia’s missiles; and why such help has been so slow in coming” – The Economist

BUK SAM file photo adapted from image at army.mil

“… It was the second consecutive day of large-scale Russian missile attacks on civilian neighbourhoods and infrastructure, though … not nearly as serious as the first. On October 10th Russia launched 83 missiles at cities across Ukraine, killing at least 19 …. Ukraine said it had shot down 43 of those, but … still relies mainly on Soviet-era … systems […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Says ‘Ball in EU’s Court’ on Restarting Nord Stream Deliveries” – Moscow Times

Gas Flame file photo

(Moscow Times – Oct. 12, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said his country was a reliable energy supplier and blamed the West for disruptions on the market at an energy forum in Moscow. After the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Europe were damaged by explosions, Putin said “the ball was in the EU’s court” to resume deliveries. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Punishing Russians Won’t End the Ukraine War” -Washington Post

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“… Economic boycotts … are one way for democratic governments to demonstrate … opposition to tyranny and military aggression without … having to go to war. They also represent an effort to turn people against their autocratic leaders. Some European politicians have claimed that stopping Russians from travel[]ing to Europe will encourage them to demand an end to the war. […]

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Summer of Sanctions 2022

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

Subject: Summer of Sanctions 2022 Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 From: Sarah Lindemann-Komarova <echosiberia@gmail.com> Summer of Sanctions 2022 By Sarah Lindemann-Komarova Sarah Lindemann-Komarova has lived in Siberia since 1992. Was a community development activist for 20 years. Currently, focuses on research and writing. [With pictures: echosiberia.medium.com/siberian-summer-of-sanctions-2022-878f00f1e28b] Thanks to Fred Weir for the inspiration The summer of sanctions in Siberia has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Mikhail Gorbachev, the man who changed the world” – Christian Science Monitor

File Photo of Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan at Table Signing Documents

“Mikhail Gorbachev helped end the Cold War and oversaw the demise of the totalitarian Soviet Union, offering freedom and hope. But his dream of a ‘common European homeland’ has died.” “… Gorbachev … lived long enough to witness his greatest legacy, the peaceful unwinding of the USSR into 15 sovereign nation states, being destroyed. The current war in Ukraine is […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The World Putin Wants: How Distortions About the Past Feed Delusions About the Future” – Foreign Affairs/ Fiona Hill, Angela Stent

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Putin … invaded Ukraine not because he felt threatened by NATO expansion or by Western ‘provocations.’ He ordered his ‘special military operation’ because he believes … it is Russia’s divine right to rule Ukraine, to wipe out the country’s national identity, and to integrate its people into a Greater Russia. … He laid out this mission in a 5,000-word […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches” – WSJ

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Moscow is raking in more revenue than ever with the help of new buyers, new traders and the world’s seemingly insatiable demand for crude.” “Russia pumps almost as much oil into the global market as … before its invasion of Ukraine. With oil prices up, Moscow is also making more money. Demand from some of the world’s largest economies has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Are sanctions on Russia working? The lessons from a new era of economic warfare” – The Economist

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“… [A] war of attrition is taking place along a thousand-kilometre front …. … [A]nother struggle is raging — an economic conflict of a ferocity and scope not seen since the 1940s, as Western countries try to cripple Russia’s $1.8trn economy with a novel arsenal of sanctions. … [I]t … reveals a great deal about liberal democracies’ capacity to project […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is the U.S. mission to support Ukraine getting a named operation?” – Military Times

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

“Six months into the U.S. effort to bolster Ukraine’s military with equipment, while reassuring NATO allies with troops and aircraft throughout Eastern Europe and Germany, the plan is for troops to remain activated for the foreseeable future. … [T]he Biden administration [reportedly] plans to put a name on this support effort …. [b]ut a Pentagon spokesman couldn’t confirm …. ‘I’m […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe’s powers gave Ukraine no new military pledges in July, data shows; Europe’s military support for Ukraine has been decreasing since April, according to data from the Kiel Institute.” – Politico

Europe Map

“Throughout … July, Europe’s six largest countries[, the U.K., France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland, reportedly] offered Ukraine no new bilateral military commitments … the first month that … happened since Russia invaded in February. … [D]espite historic shifts in European defense policy — which have seen  once reluctant countries like France and Germany ship arms to Ukraine — military […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian visa issue” – Anders Åslund

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

(Anders Åslund Twitter – twitter @anders_aslund – Aug. 16, 2022 “I feel deeply disturbed by the agitation to refuse all Russians visa to the EU because most Russians support Putin’s war in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of liberal Russians who oppose the war have fled Russia. They must not be punished! Instead, the EU should interview all the Russian applicants for […]

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European Military Aid Commitments to Ukraine ‘Dry Up’ After 5 Months of War – Research

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

(Moscow Times – August 18, 2022) Major European governments promised no new military aid to Ukraine in July, the first month this has happened since Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbor, according to research published Thursday. Ukraine, which relies heavily on Europe’s military and economic aid, received only around 1.5 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in new pledges of support in July, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Playing With Fire in Ukraine; The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation” – Foreign Affairs/ John J. Mearsheimer

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus … [that the] Ukraine … conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually … a peace agreement … favor[ing] the United States … NATO allies … [and] Ukraine. … Few imagine … U.S. forces … directly involved … or … Russia[n] … use [of] nuclear weapons. … Although disastrous escalation may […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Stop Tiptoeing Around Russia; It Is Time to End Washington’s Decades of Deference to Moscow” – Foreign Affairs/ Alexander Vindman

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

“… Recognizing the poisonous Russocentrism of U.S. foreign policy is the first step toward a better approach to U.S.-Ukrainian relations. … Even if Putin is … replaced …, the United States should not assume Russia can change for the better; rapprochement must be earned, not given. By freeing itself from its Russocentrism, Washington will also be better able to engage […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Is Making Heaps of Money From Oil, but There Is a Way to Stop That” – New York Times

Oil Well file photo

“… Nations seeking to help Ukraine are aiming at the wrong target. … Russia’s energy exports instead of … Russia’s earnings from energy exports. Russia is exporting less oil but … [reportedly] earning more money …. [S]anctions have raised prices … offsetting … declin[ing] … exports. In May 2022, Russia earned 883 million euros per day from oil exports, up […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A dark state; Vladimir Putin is in thrall to a distinctive brand of Russian fascism; That is why his country is such a threat to Ukraine, the West and his own people” – The Economist

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… A decade ago [when][] Putin’s popularity began to wane[] [h]e … [started] drawing on … fascist thinking … caught up in a cycle of grievance and resentment that has left reason far behind. … culminat[ing] in a ruinous war that … defied the weighing of risks and rewards. … Without the rhetoric of victimhood and the use of violence, […]

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JRL NEWSBLOG: “The U.S. has admitted 100,000 Ukrainian migrants. It must keep going.” – Washington Post

Statue of Liberty Head and U.S. Flag, adapted from image at uscis.gov

“The United States has now met … [a] goal … to legally admit ‘up to’ 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing … Putin’s blood-soaked invasion. That … shouldn’t mark the end of … [a] commitment to shar[e] the burden of the … humanitarian nightmare …. The administration … should prepare for another 100,000. … [M]any … allies have shouldered a greater refugee burden […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Putin Fights For” – Andrew Doris, Thomas Graham/ Survival (IISS)

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reignited debate over the role of NATO expansion …. Robert Person and Michael McFaul dismiss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s NATO concerns as a ‘fiction,’ arguing that it was actually the expansion of democracy that threatened his autocratic regime. … Democracy and NATO expansion were not separate issues for Putin and the Russian elite, but mutually […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia” – WSJ

“After Moscow cuts gas flows again on Nord Stream, Washington and Brussels bet on longer-term effects of sanctions.” “Western governments are bracing for a protracted economic confrontation with Russia over … Ukraine, as Moscow fights back against … sanctions by disrupting energy and food supplies. On Wednesday, Russia cut natural gas … on the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany […]

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AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Are sanctions actually hurting Russia’s economy? Here’s what you need to know” – NPR

“Just over four months ago, the U.S. and several allied nations levied unprecedented sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. For weeks afterwards, the Russian ruble’s value tanked, foreign multinational companies pulled out of the country, and economic prospects began looking grim. But Russia responded aggressively. It shored up the ruble’s value and increased oil exports to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad” – Reuters

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad [reportedly] could return to normal within days …  as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow. Kaliningrad, … bordered by [EU] states[,] … relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods[] [and] has been cut off from some freight […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Official: Russia could see West’s sanctions as cause for war” – AP

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

“A senior Russian official warned Thursday that Moscow could see Western sanctions as a cause for war. Dmitry Medvedev, … deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by … Putin, denounced … Western [sanctions]  …. ‘Under certain circumstances, such hostile measures could be perceived as an act of international aggression, or even as a casus belli,’ Medvedev said … using […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “G-7 Summit Exposes West’s Challenges in Tackling Russia; Economic fallout is hampering further sanctions against Moscow as Ukraine demands more weapons to halt the Russian advance” – WSJ

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“[G7] rich democracies … agree[d] to discuss … new sanctions against Russia …. While weapons deliveries have made an immediate difference on the battlefield and Ukraine has been clamoring for more equipment to repel Moscow’s forces, sanctions have proven slow to take effect, some of them have backfired … and new ones have … been too complex to deploy quickly. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning” – RAND

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

[scroll down for embedded 181-page PDF] … Given the large military potential imbalance between the two sides, the continued cohesion of … NATO … will likely force Russia to resolve political grievances without … the use of force against NATO. NATO cohesion creates at least three operational problems for Russia. First, [NATO’s combined] preponderance of military potential that could prove […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions Push Russia to First Foreign Default Since Bolshevik Revolution” – WSJ

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“A debt default has been long in coming since Western sanctions created payment obstacles Moscow couldn’t overcome.” “Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds as of late Sunday …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is the West supplying Ukraine with enough weapons? The answer depends, in part, on what the goal is” – The Economist

Ukraine Map Highlighting Donbas, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit to Peggy Frierson, DOD

“… [Western] help is desperately needed. In recent weeks Ukraine has made some gains …. small consolations next to the steady gains that Russia’s army has made in the … Donbas. … Russia’s army is concentrating its forces and using them more methodically than it did in the first stage of the conflict …. Russia also has a big advantage […]

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Clues From Views: Russia’s National Security Chief Says Poland Preparing to Seize Land in Ukraine, Points Finger at ‘Selfish’ West

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – June 2, 2022) This post is part of a new “Clues from Russian Views” series in our blog and analysis sections. In it, we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying about Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking and/or messaging.The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the EU’s ban on Russian oil will rock global markets” – Financial Times

Oil Wells File Photo

“Refiners will face fierce competition to secure supplies as Brussels imposes sanctions on seaborne exports.” “… [T]he EU’s 27 member states agreed to ban seaborne Russian oil imports. To placate landlocked countries such as Hungary, pipeline shipments will continue for now. … Germany’s and Poland’s willingness to taper … pipeline purchases by 2022’s close should, combined with the seaborne ban, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian Assets to Help Ukraine Sets Off White House Debate” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“The cost to rebuild Ukraine is expected to be significant. … Zelensky, estimated [in May] that it could be $600 billion after months of artillery, missile and tank attacks — meaning that even if all of Russia’s central bank assets abroad were seized, they would cover only half …. [F]inance ministers from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia urged the [EU] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Russian Orthodox Leader at the Core of Putin’s Ambitions” – New York Times

Patriarch Kirill file photo

“Patriarch Kirill I has provided spiritual cover for the invasion of Ukraine, reaping vast resources for his church in return. Now, in an extraordinary step, the E.U. is threatening him with sanctions.” “… Kirill … has staked the fortunes of his branch of Orthodox Christianity on a close and mutually beneficial alliance with [] Putin ….  To his critics, the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Who will pay to put Ukraine back together again?” – Financial Times

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“Postwar reconstruction will hinge on reducing corruption and forging a genuinely close relationship with the EU.” “… [W]estern governments … are beginning to weigh up the costs and planning … needed for a postwar reconstruction effort [in Ukraine] that will rival anything … since [World War II]. The project … is going to be immensely complex and costly, running into […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Western leaders must prepare public for a war economy; The cost of living crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better” – Financial Times

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“… ‘Ukraine fatigue’ is a real risk in western democracies[,] [whose] citizens are repulsed by … Putin’s war of unprovoked aggression and are full of sympathy for the Ukrainian people. … But as things drag on … [i]t is easy to see how the cost of living crisis … compounded by war and snarled-up supply chains, … probably already putting […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Ukraine and the revival of the west” – Financial Times

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“The strength and unity of the response to Russia’s invasion surprised the Kremlin but some have accused the west of hypocrisy.” “… The speed, strength and unity of the western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine surprised the Kremlin …. [and] may even have surprised western leaders. … ‘[T]he west,’ as a geopolitical concept, is no longer defined by geography. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., allies plan for long-term isolation of Russia” – Washington Post

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“A new strategy would mark a return to containment after years of seeking cooperation and coexistence with Moscow.” “… At NATO and the [EU] … and at the State Department … Pentagon and allied ministries, blueprints are being drawn up … [for] new policies across virtually every aspect of the West’s posture toward Moscow, from defense and finance to trade […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “West set to toughen sanctions on Russia; Ukraine urges more” – AP

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Western governments prepared Wednesday to toughen sanctions against Russia and send more weapons to Ukraine, after … Zelenskyy pointedly accused the world of failing to end Moscow’s invasion of his country and what he said was a campaign of murders, rapes and wanton destruction by Russian forces. In scarred and silent streets of ruined towns around Ukraine’s capital, investigators collected […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO Intervention in Ukraine Won’t Spark World War III” – Foreign Policy

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

“A Western aversion to casualties and fears of Russian nuclear use are impeding NATO intervention against a vastly inferior opponent.” “… Russia’s indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian civilians … bombing hospitals and schools … [and] us[ing] of horrific weapons, such as cluster bombs and white phosphorus [] should drive the West to reevaluate … and take a more active role … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Proposes Neutral Status With Guarantees, but Zelensky Calls for More Western Help” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Cease-fire talks end inconclusively, while Ukraine’s president lambasts timidity of EU governments over sanctions on Russia.” “Ukraine outlined its proposal for accepting a neutral status … during cease-fire talks with Russia … Tuesday, demanding binding security guarantees from the U.S. and some European countries, while the five-week-old Russian war on Ukraine raged on …. [N]egotiations … in Istanbul over … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is the West deceiving itself about Russia’s ‘defeat’ in Ukraine?” – The Spectator (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he embarrassing underperformance of the Russian military in Ukraine and the bite of Western sanctions suggest that Putin is no genius mastermind strategist but a risk taker who has bitten off more than he can chew. … [T]he West has also made a dangerous gamble of its own: expecting that it can stay out of the war and also […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “West cranks up costs for Russia as war enters second month” – AP

NATO Meeting file photo

“… Opening the NATO summit, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is ‘determined to continue to impose costs on Russia to bring about the end of this brutal war.’ …. [I]nstead of swiftly toppling Ukraine’s government, [Russia’s] forces are bogged down in a grinding military campaign and its economy is laboring under punishing international sanctions. … [I]n many areas, Ukrainian […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Orders Europe to Pay Rubles for Russian Gas” – Moscow Times

Gas Flame file photo

Move is seen as a bid to get Europe to roll back heavy sanctions on Moscow. (Moscow Times – March 23, 2022) Russia will force Europe to start paying for gas supplies in rubles, President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday in televised remarks. “I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payments for our gas supplies to unfriendly […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Make Peace With Putin; The West Must Move Quickly to End the War in Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs/ Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… Western arms flowing into Ukraine will increase Russia’s already substantial losses … but Putin appears prepared to accept the cost …. [T]oppling [Putin] would not necessarily end [the war]. A popular uprising … is unlikely; the Russian state has formidable means of repression …. [After] a palace coup, a new leader could be more willing to talk but … […]

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