JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the EU’s ban on Russian oil will rock global markets” – Financial Times
“Refiners will face fierce competition to secure supplies as Brussels imposes sanctions on seaborne exports.”
“… [T]he EU’s 27 member states agreed to ban seaborne Russian oil imports. To placate landlocked countries such as Hungary, pipeline shipments will continue for now. … Germany’s and Poland’s willingness to taper … pipeline purchases by 2022’s close should, combined with the seaborne ban, see Russian oil exports to the EU decline by 90 per cent by the end of the year. … Russia, which produced more than 10 per cent of global oil supplies before the crisis, will need to find new buyers … or international oil markets [reportedly] could become dangerously undersupplied …. India has already stepped up purchases and China is expected to import more as its major cities emerge from Covid-19 ….”
However, it is unclear how suitable Chinese refineries will be for Russian grades of oil, or whether a desire to diversify suppliers will also impact how much Russian oil China will import.
Also unclear is whether the EU will unify to curb European imports of Russian natural gas. The European Commission estimated that outright elimination of Russian gas would reduce EU economic growth by 2.5 percentage points, down to just 0.2%.