JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Make Peace With Putin; The West Must Move Quickly to End the War in Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs/ Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon

“… Western arms flowing into Ukraine will increase Russia’s already substantial losses … but Putin appears prepared to accept the cost …. [T]oppling [Putin] would not necessarily end [the war]. A popular uprising … is unlikely; the Russian state has formidable means of repression …. [After] a palace coup, a new leader could be more willing to talk but … hardly … interested in surrendering …. Those who advocate … [regime change from the outside] assume [either] … a new autocrat … willing to end the war without victory, or … mass protests … lead[ing] to a democratic Russia. They overlook a [possible] third outcome … prolonged political upheaval and violence … destabiliz[ing] a nuclear superpower. …”

The article raises concerns about how much further the United States and European allies can go with sanctions before encountering more severe economic repercussions themselves. The war already has contributed to rising prices for gas and wheat, and could further exacerbate inflation while also undercutting economic growth rates. Existing covid-related supply chain disruptions also have been worsened by the war. Container shipping companies now face higher insurance rates and cargo aircraft are being forced into longer routes because of Russia denying overflight rights to dozens of countries.

Among other concerns, the article also points out that the longer the Russian offensive lasts, the more it will inflict civilian casualties and economic damage upon Ukraine.

Additionally a longer war is said to increase the risk of the war spreading and drawing in NATO.

“…. Moscow has already declared that the convoys carrying Western arms to Ukraine are legitimate targets ….”

Click here for: “How to Make Peace With Putin; The West Must Move Quickly to End the War in Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs/ Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon