JRL NEWSWATCH: “Playing With Fire in Ukraine; The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation” – Foreign Affairs/ John J. Mearsheimer

“Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus … [that the] Ukraine … conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually … a peace agreement … favor[ing] the United States … NATO allies … [and] Ukraine. … Few imagine … U.S. forces … directly involved … or … Russia[n] … use [of] nuclear weapons. … Although disastrous escalation may be avoided, the warring parties’ ability to manage that danger is far from certain. The risk … is substantially greater than … conventional wisdom holds. … [G]iven that … escalation could include a major war in Europe and possibly … nuclear annihilation, there is good reason for extra concern. … The dynamics of escalation in wartime are … hard to predict or control …. creat[ing] a powerful incentive to find a diplomatic solution …. [but] both sides are firmly committed to war aims that make compromise almost impossible. The Biden administration should have worked … to settle the Ukraine crisis before war broke out …. It is too late now …. One can only hope … both sides will manage the war in ways that avoid catastrophic escalation. …”

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