Category: Europe, EU

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Leadership Change in Russia: Contingency Planning Memorandum” – Council on Foreign Relations: Liana Fix, Maria Snegovaya

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, NATO, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.” “… Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 … Putin looked set to stay in power […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Frozen Russian Assets Over Ukraine War Wins Endorsement of Legal Experts” – Bloomberg

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

Letter from scholars backing seizure is circulating in G-7 ‘It would be lawful, under international law,’ 10 experts say “A group of legal experts sought to bolster the case for seizing frozen Russian central bank assets, arguing that such actions are allowed under international law given the scale of Russia’s continuing attacks in Ukraine. … The letter … is co-signed […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine” – Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world. No settlement will endure unless Ukraine, Russia, and the West all see it as sufficiently serving their interests and … preferable to continued war. … [W]e need not and should […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check?” – Brookings

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he outlook appears bleak: both sides have sustained horrific losses, millions of Ukrainians remain displaced or in exile, and there is no plausible sign of an end to the violence. Western capitals are struggling to supply funds and ammunition to Kyiv … [T]he Kremlin seemingly draws on limitless supplies and political support from authoritarian allies and continues to pound […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despair in Russia as Putin Spirals Out of Control” – Daily Beast

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Just this [past] week the Kremlin claimed it was at war with the United States and Putin’s No.1 enemy was found dead in prison. Russians are terrified about what’s next.” “…. Putin’s spokesman informed Russians this [past] week that … [Russia’s] ‘special military operation’ … was set to go on much longer because it is now ‘a war against the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden, lawmakers hammer Ukraine aid holdouts after Navalny death” – Politico

Assassinations, Beatings, Threats, Europe, EU, Headlines, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“At the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill, Ukraine backers amp up the pressure on Republican holdouts.” “… [T]he Pentagon … touted the impacts of U.S. and European aid to Kyiv on the battlefield and in the economic costs to Moscow, but also underscored worries that Ukrainian forces won’t have the weapons needed to fend off Russian forces […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

Armenia, Assassinations, Beatings, Threats, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, China, Corruption, Law, Police, Courts, Crime, Cybersecurity, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Foreign Policy, Security, Visas, Headlines, Human Rights, Military, NATO, Nonprofits, Activists, NGO's, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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UKRAINELINK: “A Long War Made Longer by the West’s Unaddressed Mistakes” – Kennan Institute: Victor Andrusiv

Europe, EU, Headlines, NATO, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv, Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration – Feb. 14, 2024) Two years of war in Ukraine is already a long time, but recent events suggest that all forecasts regarding the end of hostilities no longer apply. For the first time, in speaking of a “long war” we’re referring […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why NATO Needs Ukraine: Kyiv’s Survival and Europe’s Security Depend on a More Unified Front” – Foreign Affairs: Alina Polyakova, James Goldgeier

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
NATO Meeting File Photo

“… The July 2023 NATO summit … settl[ed] on an ambiguously worded communiqué declaring … NATO could invite Ukraine to join ‘when Allies agree and conditions are met.’ … The absence of a clear plan … has given Putin more confidence that he can wait out the West … in a war of attrition. … [T]he lack of resolve … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Seeks Revenge on a World Order He Once Wanted to Join” – Bloomberg

China, Europe, EU, Headlines, History, Soviet Union, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“The KGB agent turned warlord president has shaped Russia with resentment and force. As Donald Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies if he returns to the White House, Putin’s poised to take advantage.” “… Putin is attempting to strike his own decisive blow against the U.S. and Europe to reshape [the] global order to Russia’s advantage … backed by military […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “IMF warns that any action on Russian assets needs ‘sufficient legal support'” – Reuters

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
International Monetary Fund Logo Over Ukraine Flag

“… IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath … said decisions about what to do with [Russian] assets rested solely with countries holding them. She declined to offer an opinion on how they should be used. Gopinath said the IMF would evaluate the impact of any decisions … but the IMF would not be involved in the decisions. … [S]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End” – Bloomberg

Europe, EU, Germany, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog
Map of Germany adapted from cia.gov image

“As political paralysis grips Berlin, the energy crisis was the final blow for a growing number of manufacturers” “… Manufacturing output in Europe’s biggest economy has been trending downward since 2017 … accelerating as competitiveness erodes. … The U.S. is drifting away from Europe and is seeking to compete … for climate investment. China is becoming a bigger rival and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Germany Braces for Decades of Confrontation With Russia” – New York Times

Europe, EU, Germany, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Brandeburg Gate in Berlin, Germany, file photo adapted from image at state.gov

“Leaders are sounding alarms about growing threats, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is wary of pushing the Kremlin, and his own ambivalent public, too far.” “Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia … that they must speedily rebuild the country’s military in case … Putin does not plan to stop […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

Arms Trade, Military Aid, China, CIS, Customs Union, Eurasian Union, Cybersecurity, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, Human Rights, Iran, Military, Moldova, NATO, North Korea, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Oil, Gas, Energy, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Space, Terrorism, Turkey, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Washington Must Do for Kyiv Between Now and November” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [A]fter weeks of negotiation, the EU approved a 50 billion euro funding package for Ukraine … a much needed economic boost[] while the U.S. bill remains held up in Congress. On a recent episode of Carnegie Connects, host Aaron David Miller discussed … Russia’s war against Ukraine with Carnegie senior fellows Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella. … * * […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. and Germany Push to Delay Ukraine NATO Membership Invite; Ukraine and its Eastern European allies want the invite to come soon, but Washington and Berlin are wary.” – Foreign Policy

Arms Trade, Military Aid, Europe, EU, Germany, Headlines, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
NATO Meeting File Photo

“Ukraine and some of its strongest supporters are pushing NATO to formally invite Kyiv to become a member … during a major upcoming summit, but … [reportedly] are facing significant behind-the-scenes pushback from the United States and Germany …. Kyiv has backing from Eastern European [NATO members] … including Poland and the Baltic states … [think Ukrainian] NATO membership [would […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Leaders Agree to $54 Billion Ukraine Aid Package as Hungary’s Orban Backs Down” – WSJ

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United Nations
EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Ukraine aid decision comes against the backdrop of growing fears about Russia’s threat to Europe’s security” “[EU] leaders agreed to a $54 billion budget aid package for Ukraine … Thursday, locking in financing … for the next four years … [a mix of long-term loans and grants,] a major boost for Ukraine, which could have started to run short of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine says it uncovers mass fraud in weapons procurement” – Reuters

Corruption, Law, Police, Courts, Crime, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Ukraine’s SBU security service said on Saturday it had uncovered a corruption scheme in the purchase of arms … totalling the equivalent of about $40 million. … The fight to root out endemic corruption remains a major issue as Ukraine presses its bid to secure [EU] membership …. The SBU said an investigation … ‘exposed officials of the Ministry of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets – officials” – Reuters

Canada, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“The [EU] [reportedly] is unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe, despite G7 plans to discuss the legality of such a move at a meeting in February …. The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine … [including roughly] $200 billion … held […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s $30 Billion Problem: How to Keep Fighting Without Foreign Aid” – WSJ

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Image of Ukrainian Currency, adapted from file at usaid.gov

“Kyiv could delay salaries, return to printing money if funding from U.S. and EU falls through” “Ukraine [reportedly] will run out of money within months and be forced to take painful economic measures to keep the government running if aid from the U.S. or Europe doesn’t come through …. The U.S. and [EU] … have promised Kyiv billions of dollars […]

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Ukraine and West Can’t Count on Collapse of Russia’s Military-Industrial Sector as a Result of Sanctions, Inozemtsev Says

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, Military, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel” – Financial Times

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Nuclear Energy, Oil, Gas, Energy, Sanctions, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations

“Demand for atomic energy is surging but Moscow dominates the world’s supplies of enriched uranium.” “… Utilities companies have spent two years stockpiling nuclear fuel in case Russian supplies are disrupted. … Washington is undertaking a multibillion-dollar push to rebuild its nuclear supply chain …. More than a fifth of the fuel used by the 93 nuclear reactors in the […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

China, Corruption, Law, Police, Courts, Crime, Cybersecurity, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Environment, Europe, EU, Headlines, Military, NATO, North Korea, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Oil, Gas, Energy, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Desperate Hour: The World Needs a Russian Defeat” – Bloomberg

Europe, EU, Headlines, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Grabbing $300 billion of Russian assets is no panacea, West cautions in Davos” – Reuters

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Rules Out Nuclear Arms Talks With US Over Ukraine Support” – Bloomberg

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“No grounds for arms-control talks with U.S., Lavrov says Russia accuses U.S. of escalating confrontation over Ukraine” “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed the U.S. over … Ukraine and warned on the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers … [while] rul[ing] out … discussions on strategic security …. He accused the U.S. and … European allies of escalating … confrontation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The War in Ukraine Has Become a Peripheral Concern for the West” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“What seemed at first to be the start of a Third World War has turned out to be more akin to a Second Yugoslav War: a local conflict on the edge of Europe triggered by a slow-motion imperial collapse.” “Throughout 2022, Europe was in shock. … Russia, owner of the continent’s most powerful armed forces, really was capable of sending […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Can Europe arm Ukraine — or even itself?” – The Economist

Arms Trade, Military Aid, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Wars of attrition, … what large-scale conflicts between militarily sophisticated adversaries such as Russia and Ukraine tend to become, are usually decided by … the better arms industry. Russia’s economy is nearly 14 times the size of Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are so much greater that it should be able to win. … Both America and […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 5-12, 2024

Arms Trade, Military Aid, Belarus, China, Corruption, Law, Police, Courts, Crime, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Environment, Europe, EU, Headlines, Human Rights, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Palestine, Military, Nuclear Energy, Nuclear Proliferation, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Oil, Gas, Energy, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Sanctions, Spies, Spy Allegations, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT  reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s War Effort Is Stuck. This Heroic Battlefield Failure Shows Why.” – WSJ

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 2-8, 2024

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, Media, Internet, Social Media, Television, Military, North Korea, Nuclear Energy, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nord Stream Probe Hampered by Resistance From Poland” – WSJ

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Poland, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Gas Flame file photo

“Investigators hope Warsaw’s new government will shed light on gas-pipeline attack after previous administration’s reluctance to disclose potentially crucial evidence.” “Polish officials have resisted cooperating with an international probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines and failed to disclose potentially crucial evidence, according to European investigators …. [They reportedly] have been slow to provide information and withheld […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire” – WSJ

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Dec. 18, 2023-Jan. 2, 2024

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. and its European allies “are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war,” according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat interviewed by Politico. “Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian reserves is the right thing to do” – Financial Times

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Blatant violations of international laws require a response and reparations would be in line with historical precedent.” “… [One] geopolitical flashpoint[] … may be … pressure to seize Russia’s reserves in foreign central banks to fund Ukraine. Western nations … reported[ly] … have been actively exploring the move …. rais[ing] worries about … consequences for the financial system, … that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia exports almost all its oil to China and India – Novak” – Reuters

China, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, India, Oil, Gas, Energy, Sanctions, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine’s war against Russia could get even harder in 2024” – CNBC

Budget, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive would change the dial in the war …. It didn’t … 2024 could be even harder. Ukraine’s alliances with the U.S. and Europe could be destabilized further in 2024, putting the future of military aid packages in doubt. The amount of support and military hardware Ukraine receives […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 27-Dec. 4, 2023

Central Asia, China, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Environment, Europe, EU, Headlines, History, Soviet Union, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Palestine, Middle East, North Africa, Military, NATO, North Korea, Oil, Gas, Energy, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 21-Dec. 1, 2023

Baltics, Estonia, Europe, EU, Finland, Headlines, Human Rights, Iran, Military, NATO, North Korea, Nuclear, Missile Defense, Turkey, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, Caucasus, Central Asia, China, Cybersecurity, Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Germany, Headlines, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Palestine, Military, NATO, North Korea, Oil, Gas, Energy, Politics, Government, Protests, Elections, Turkey, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United Nations, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations, Women
File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia must be held to full account for its aggression” – Politico.eu/ Andreas Umland

Children, Adoptions, Orphans, Europe, EU, Headlines, Human Rights, JRL NewsBlog, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“On its own, a Ukrainian battlefield victory won’t be sufficient if Russia’s wrongs are left intact and its crimes unpunished.” “… [N]either Ukraine nor … international law and justice would be fully served if Russia’s wrongs were left intact and its crimes unpunished. … [L]arge-scale displacement and deportation of Ukrainian children is one of Russia’s most abhorrent offences … a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Avoid Defeat in Ukraine: For starters, step up military aid and break Putin’s global networks of influence.” – WSJ

Europe, EU, Germany, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Media, Internet, Social Media, Television, Military, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“The German tabloid ‘Bild’ said …. President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz … plan to force Ukraine into peace talks next year by denying it the weapons needed to win. … Team Biden is more interested in avoiding confrontation with Russia than in defeating it. To oppose aid to Ukraine is to ensure a Russian victory, but funding [] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A Containment Strategy for Ukraine: How the West Can Help Kyiv Endure a Long War” – Foreign Affairs/ Liana Fix, Michael Kimmage

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality … and prepare for a multiyear war and … the long-term containment of Russia…. Russia is not becoming … more amenable to compromise. … [T]he Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the … international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now …. Western and Ukrainian leaders need to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Volodymyr Zelenskyy: The marathon runner; Dreamer No. 1 — Ukraine” – Politico.EU

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Volodymyr Zelensky file photo, adapted from dhs.gov image

“… Every once in a while, a leader comes along and single-handedly changes the course of history … through the power of their words. … Zelenskyy is such a leader. From his defiant ‘We are here’ video … in the first days of the war outside his presidential office … and his iconic ‘I need ammunition, not a ride’ quip […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The West’s False Choice in Ukraine: The crossroads is not between war and compromise, but between victory and defeat.” – Foreign Policy/ Nona Mikhelidze, Nathalie Tocci

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy …. center[ing] on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling … a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads. Some believe … only two routes [lie] ahead: … the perpetuation of war — with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor — or negotiations that lead […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “More blood, less treasure; Ukraine’s new enemy: war fatigue in the West” – The Economist

Arms Trade, Military Aid, Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“Congress holds up military aid as unsupportive populists make gains in Europe.” “For more than 600 days of full-scale war, America has been Ukraine’s greatest saviour as it marshalled arms, money and more to help repel Russia’s invasion. Now … [i]ts aid for Ukraine is fast running out, and dysfunction in Congress is blocking new assistance. Nobody is sure when […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Some EU Nations Push to Weaken Russia Sanctions Enforcement Plan” – Bloomberg

Economy, Business, Investment, Trade, Europe, EU, Headlines, Sanctions, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“EU proposals include ban on re-export to Russia of key goods Proposals include penalties for breaches and fund for Ukraine” “… [EU’s] executive arm has proposed banning importers from reselling so-called high-priority items — like semiconductors used in weapons or needed to make them — to Russia or for use in Russia, and requiring a sum to be deposited in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Has Staked Russia’s Resources on Victory in Ukraine. Can the West Match Him?” – WSJ

Europe, EU, Headlines, History, Soviet Union, JRL NewsBlog, NATO, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Kremlin leader seeks to turn advantage in manpower and munitions into battlefield progress, while Western will and assistance for Kyiv waver “… [P]olitical paralysis in the U.S. and Europe … threaten[] … [Ukrainian] … [access to[] arms and money … [T]he Russian army’s limitations … suggest it is more likely to grind out [just] small gains …. The Ukrainian army […]

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NEW BOOK: Richard Sakwa, “The Lost Peace: How The West Failed to Prevent a Second Cold War”

Europe, EU, Headlines, History, Soviet Union, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
Bookcase file photo, adapted from image at nlm.nih.gov

New book: Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace: How The West Failed to Prevent a Second Cold War (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 2023). Professor Emeritus of Politics School of Politics and International Relations Keynes College, Division of Human and Social Sciences University of Kent Introduction PART I: FROM COLD WAR TO COLD WAR The promise of peace The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine” – The Economist

Europe, EU, Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War, United States, U.S.-Russian Relations
EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on.” “… [O]nly around 400 square km (154 square miles) of territory had been liberated [in the Ukrainian counteroffensive] …. Russia still occupies about 18% of Ukraine[.] [A]round half … it took in 2014 … annex[ing] Crimea and grabb[ing] the eastern Donbas[.] [T]he rest is … […]

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