” As NATO holds nuclear exercises, Western spooks watch Russia’s warheads for any sign of movement.” “… Russia’s and America’s … long-range ‘strategic’ weapons are closely monitored under … New [S]tart … [but] many … can be fired without warning. Satellites and ground radars would spot and track ballistic missiles only after they were fired; low-flying cruise missiles would be […]
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“The United States and … European partners continue to provide military aid and arms to Kyiv in the hope that Ukraine can press its current advantage, reclaim territories seized by Russia over the past eight months and, at the very least, win itself a stronger hand whenever the warring parties do attempt meaningful negotiations. The Kremlin … has responded to […]
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“Moscow’s systematic targeting of the country’s energy infrastructure threatens residents’ ability to survive through the winter.” “A second front has opened … as Russia attempts to destroy [Ukraine’s] energy infrastructure hundreds of miles … from the military battlefield …. Kyiv says the systematic destruction of power stations and heating infrastructure across the country … aims to bend Ukrainians’ will by […]
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“Ukrainian power infrastructure takes heavy damage.” “Russia’s top military commander in Ukraine signaled Moscow’s hold on the southern city of Kherson was weakening, and Ukraine said Russian strikes since last week had knocked out some 30% of its power-plant infrastructure, raising concerns of countrywide blackouts. … Western military analysts have long said that Russian forces would be advised to leave […]
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“There are two basic ways to think about the war — and the world.” “… [K]ey decision-makers on both sides view the war as an all-or-nothing struggle with far-reaching global implications — worsening the risk of dangerous escalation the longer it lasts. … [W]hat happens in Ukraine is important but not likely to determine the fate of the planet. … […]
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“… [O]ne of the invasion’s central lessons had to do with something I had witnessed over the preceding two decades: what happens when a government is slowly warped by its own propaganda. … Russian diplomats were made to confront Washington and defend the country’s meddling abroad with lies and non sequiturs. … embrac[ing] bombastic rhetoric and … uncritically parrot … […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Peter Rutland – Oct. 17, 2022) Peter Rutland is Professor of Government at Wesleyan University. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law and strikes at the core principles of the UN. This has been widely accepted by political elites and the public at large in the United States and across Europe. […]
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“Call-up of more men to military service and talk of nuclear weapons are rattling citizens.” “… Putin’s massive military mobilization and escalating talk of nuclear weapons in the protracted Ukraine conflict are rattling many Russians, including urban elites for whom the war had seemed far in the background. … In some urban centers, apartments are being put up for sale […]
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“… Putin’s hail of missiles against civilian targets in Ukraine is both reprehensible and a desperate move in an unjust war he is losing. The question raised by … Navalny in a recent essay …: What will come when it is over? How Russia emerges from this disaster could shape the world for a long time. In addition to Russia’s […]
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“Russia’s attacks on a dozen Ukrainian cities … in what Moscow calls retaliation for the sabotage of the Kerch Bridge … bring the world ever closer to nuclear war, four U.S. government and military sources told Newsweek. The officials, all working on nuclear-weapons issues, said … not enough is being done to avoid nuclear escalation at a time that battlefield […]
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“Classic military operations and nimble battlefield decision-making are exploiting the incompetence and top-down command of Russian forces.” “… Ukraine’s command structure encourages junior officers to make in-the-moment battlefield decisions … to seize opportunities and quickly take advantage of enemy weaknesses. Russians, by contrast, have been slowed by a Soviet-era decision-making structure, in which orders trickle down the chain of command […]
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“As the alliance meets this week, leaders must discuss how they will react if Russia uses weapons of mass destruction.” “NATO defense ministers will gather this week for a ministerial meeting, but one topic of discussion will be anything but routine: the risk that … Putin might use nuclear weapons in Europe. The recent massive, disproportionate missile attacks launched against […]
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“Ukraine’s Westward drift since independence has been countered by the sometimes violent tug of Russia, felt most recently with Putin’s 2022 invasion.” “Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has set alight one of the bloodiest conflicts in Europe since World War II. A former Soviet republic, Ukraine had deep cultural, economic, and political bonds with Russia, but the war […]
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“For too long, the global democratic coalition supporting Kyiv has focused on what it should not do in the invasion of Ukraine. Its main aims include not letting Ukraine lose and not letting Russian President Vladimir Putin win — but also not allowing the war to escalate to a point where Russia attacks a NATO country or conducts a nuclear […]
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“… While it’s clear … Putin wanted to threaten Ukrainians and send a message of power with the bombings of Kyiv and Lviv, Kharkiv and Dnipro … the attack in fact shows … how weak [] Putin is. Among Ukrainians, there is an almost palpable feeling that Russia is losing the war. [] Putin might know it, too. … in […]
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“Putin has made it clear that the Kremlin hopes to end the ‘special military operation’ as quickly as possible. If Zelensky does not want to stop his counteroffensive and resume talks, then the Kremlin believes it must convince his Western partners to force him.” “Moscow desperately needs to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Russian troops are losing their combat effectiveness, barely hanging […]
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“… The war in Ukraine is not going as planned … Ukraine currently has the upper hand on the ground. … [E]xperts say there is no way Russia will seek to end the fighting. … [Russian political scientist] Andrey Kortunov … paints a bleak picture …. [and also] says the real issue … is: does [Russia] want long-term isolation from […]
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“Soon after Russian forces took her prisoner, the 52-year-old woman picked up a nail and carved her name into a brick wall. A-L-L-A, she wrote. Below, she scratched how many days she had been held in the shed outside a medical clinic in her hometown. Above, she wrote in simple words what she had endured in captivity: ELECTRICAL SHOCK. UNDRESS. […]
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“Ukrainians were beaten, electrocuted and forced to endure mock executions when Russia overtook Balakliya The interrogations were carried out by officials from Russia’s Federal Security Service Some Ukrainians were assisting Vladimir Putin’s war crimes and theft of their land, it has now emerged Kyiv has opened investigations into 1,309 suspected traitors and launched 450 prosecutions of collaborators Others accused of […]
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“… [T]his column has argued that (1) Ukraine, like Russia, is a deeply corrupt and oligarchic country, and Zelensky is a highly flawed leader; but (2) despite his myriad flaws and status as a pawn of the Davos/NGO globalist class, Zelensky remaining in power in Kyiv is preferable to the obvious alternative of a Belarusian/Alexander Lukashenko-style Moscow puppet state. But […]
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An unnamed member of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle has directly confronted him over mistakes and mismanagement of the war in Ukraine, The Washington Post reported Friday, citing U.S. intelligence. [washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/] The insider’s confrontation and identity were reportedly included in U.S. President Joe Biden’s daily intelligence briefing and shared with other U.S. officials. The individual’s identity could not be confirmed, […]
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“A new Ukrainian hotline set up to allow for Russian soldiers to surrender has already been utilized thousands of times. … [R]equests [reportedly] spiked due to … Ukraine’s counteroffensive, in addition to … Putin’s conscription of hundreds of thousands of soldiers as part of mobilization. Mobilizations have gotten off to a rocky start amid reports that Russians are intentionally breaking […]
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“… Putin signed more than 400 pages of legislation annexing four Ukrainian regions … forging ahead with a parallel reality in which Russia pretends to exercise sovereignty over thousands of square miles … that its military does not actually control. Russia’s economy ministry sought to attach real-world benefits to a largely illusory claim, forecasting that … annexation would raise Russia’s […]
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“… Putin … has doubled back on his word, sparking outrage across Russia. Declaring that 300,000 ‘reservists’ — nominally those with previous military service — would be mobilized, the deadly combination of unrest at home and an ever more limited military apparatus facing down an increasingly better-armed Ukrainian army means that even if Moscow can meet its recruitment goals, Putin’s […]
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“In an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government [reportedly] is now offering the U.S. full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets …. essentially giv[ing] the U.S. veto power over Ukrainian targeting of Russia … [That step seeks] to convince the [U.S.] […]
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“… The first miscalculation was the overestimation of the Russian military’s strength and effectiveness. … Putin apparently had been led to believe that the war would be over after a 72-hour blitzkrieg, Kyiv would fall, and Zelensky would surrender or flee and be replaced by a puppet government …. But the Russian military performed much worse than Putin (and apparently […]
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“The longer the conflict rages and the more resources the Russian regime throws into the furnace of war, the more isolated Putin may become in his bid for nuclear escalation.” “… [A] fragile faith [held by the Russian elites] has been rocked by the humiliating Russian retreat from Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the … partial mobilization that looks likely to become […]
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“The offensive in the south was the most highly anticipated military action of the summer. Ukraine is making gains, but the fighting is grinding, grueling and steep in casualties.” “… Ukraine’s southern offensive … [seeks] to push the Russians back from a strategic region along the coast, bolster the confidence of a battered citizenry and prove to allies that Ukraine […]
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“What do President Biden and his national security team know that makes them take Russian President Putin’s nuclear threat so seriously? Seven inconvenient facts.” “… Russia … has a nuclear arsenal that can literally erase the United States from the map. … Reagan summarized most succinctly the profound consequences …: ‘a nuclear war cannot be won, and therefore must never […]
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“Research Questions 1. What are the primary drivers of Russia’s coercive signaling behavior? 2. Are there trends or patterns in this behavior? 3. How do Russian military strategists think about signaling? 4. How can the United States best interpret future Russian actions? Moscow regularly uses limited military actions — far short of direct aggression but often creating escalatory risks — […]
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“…. Putin is rapidly losing legitimacy …. The secret police are angry over being] blam[ed] … for the military fiasco. The generals are angry that the war is destroying the armed forces. The pro-war faction … blames him …. The pro-peace faction blames him …. Russia’s foreign allies are … losing … respect … for Putin. … [I]nitial enthusiasm for […]
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(U.S. Department of Defense – Sept. 28, 2022) STAFF: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. This is Todd Breasseale from the Department of Defense. I’ve got a short statement I’d like to give you first before we go into this background call. Today we have joining us again, (redacted) and (redacted). Please refer to them as the Senior Military Official when you […]
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“The embassy warned that Russian-U.S. dual nationals could be conscripted by the Kremlin for military service.” “The U.S. Embassy in Moscow [warns] … ‘U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or traveling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain’ …. [A] week [ago] … Putin announced an escalation of Russia’s war in […]
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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg held a special meeting of the alliance’s arms directors to discuss ways to refill member nations’ weapons stockpiles. But ramping up defense production is no quick or easy feat. The U.S. has been by far the largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia, providing $15.2 billion in weapons packages to date […]
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“… Putin will sign documents … Friday proclaiming Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions … rush[ing] to lock in territorial claims that the Ukrainian army is threatening to reverse on the battlefield. The move, one of the legal steps Russia says will lead to formal annexation of 15% of Ukraine’s territory, confirms that Putin is doubling down … despite suffering […]
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“The Kremlin said on Wednesday its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine must continue at least until the capture of all of east Ukraine’s Donetsk region. … Though Russia already controls almost all of Luhansk region, the other half of the Donbas, it holds only around 60% of Donetsk region. The Moscow-backed entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, alongside two other Russian-occupied […]
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“Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation of reservists has provoked widespread protests across Russia and many are seeking to leave the country. Further discontent is likely as economic hardships grow.” “… The government had some success in managing popular expectations so as to avoid pressure on the Kremlin to get quick results. …. This allowed the Russian public to develop some immunity to […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 26, 2022) 1. Vladimir Putin’s public threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine must be received soberly if only because leaders occasionally do what they say they’ll do, according to Peggy Noonan. “American diplomats have believed Mr. Putin will never use tactical nukes because he’d fear the price. But they can’t know that, especially […]
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“… There has been one … diplomatic effort … agreed on and implemented by all parties involved (including both Ukraine and Russia) … [that] could also serve as a framework for preventing the war from worsening. … the Black Sea Grain Initiative … mediated by Turkey and the United Nations. … … [It] paved the way for a humanitarian maritime […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – Sept. 21, 2022) Vladimir Putin on Sept. 21 has done what hardliners inside and outside of the Russian government have repeatedly called for, calls that intensified after Russia’s military setbacks in eastern Ukraine: announced a mobilization of Russian reservists (though partial, not full) and officially blessed the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories […]
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“… Putin has taken a new, perilous step: mobilizing his military reserves. Amid a string of battlefield setbacks — and the announcement of fast-tracked ‘referendums’ … to annex territory … occupied in eastern Ukraine — Putin also reiterated … threats to use nuclear weapons …. We asked experts across the Atlantic Council for their reactions …. The U.S. and Ukraine […]
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“… The sham, hastily organized referenda in … Luhansk and Donetsk … of the Donbas … and occupied territories of … Kherson and Zaporizhzhia … will inevitably lead to their annexation by Russia …. Although no major country is likely to recognize the annexations … as far as the Kremlin is concerned[] [t]hat provides a legal basis in the Russian […]
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“After Russia’s defeat in Kharkiv, the pressure was on Vladimir Putin to respond. Today he did, by announcing the escalation of the war in Ukraine through the mobilization of 300,000 Russian troops.” “… Putin has been hearing … from a chorus of Russian nationalist hawks that the … 200,000-strong expeditionary force in Ukraine is too small to achieve victory. … […]
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“… Lavrov said Russia’s approach would include supporting the recently announced referendums in contested parts of Ukraine, such as the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics …. In order to counter Western pressure, Russia has fostered closer ties with other powers, especially China, nurturing a growing bilateral relationship Lavrov called a priority for Moscow, as both nations seek to promote […]
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“Complaints about the U.S. military’s influence operations using Facebook and Twitter have raised concern in the White House and federal agencies.” “The Pentagon has ordered a sweeping audit of how it conducts clandestine information warfare after major social media companies identified and took offline fake accounts suspected of being run by the U.S. military …. [T]he White House and some […]
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“The rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv reignited debate in Moscow over what to do next. While critics of the war have found new voice, even louder are those calling for escalation in Ukraine.” “Ukraine’s lightning offensive in Kharkiv last week recaptured a large swath of territory and humiliated the Russian army. … [I]t ignited a very public debate in […]
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(Moscow Times – Sept. 20, 2022) Authorities in separatist- and Russia-occupied regions of Ukraine on Tuesday said they will stage referendums on formally joining Russia in a matter of days. The announcement comes as Moscow’s forces face continued setbacks in their nearly seven-month war against Kyiv, with a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeast dealing a heavy blow to the Russian […]
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“For the first time in the war … Putin must contend with the serious prospect of losing …. [T]he near rout of Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region … and … rapid reconquest by Ukrainian forces … clearly showed … Ukraine was on top … destroy[ing] the illusion of Russian invincibility. … Suddenly, Western leaders and strategists have been able […]
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After Russian forces suffered their worst setback in months—driven from key towns by Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region—much of the response in Russia’s pro-war camp this week fell into three categories: spin, spleen and silence. The Kremlin mostly kept mum, minimizing Ukraine’s achievements even as Kyiv claimed it had liberated more than 2,000 square miles and vowed to press […]
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“… U.S. officials expect intense fighting … as both sides attempt to put themselves in the best possible position before … winter makes transport and combat more difficult. Russian forces still control vast sections of Ukraine … and U.S. officials anticipate Putin may use the coldest months to refit his spent, demoralized military before launching a renewed campaign in the […]
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