JRL NEWSWATCH: “Strategic Procrastination: What’s Russia’s Game With Nuclear Signaling?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“Putin has made it clear that the Kremlin hopes to end the ‘special military operation’ as quickly as possible. If Zelensky does not want to stop his counteroffensive and resume talks, then the Kremlin believes it must convince his Western partners to force him.”
“Moscow desperately needs to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Russian troops are losing their combat effectiveness, barely hanging on to the territory they control, and increasingly being forced to ‘retreat to more advantageous positions.’ It is critical for the Kremlin to avoid obvious military losses: another high-profile failure could result in large-scale destabilization. … Simultaneously, Moscow is taking actions that can be interpreted by the United States as boosting the readiness of its nuclear forces …. For now, Moscow is not making any extraordinary steps, and the Pentagon is not taking the bait. This means that Washington is not motivated to rush in and stop Kyiv on the battlefield. … Russia needs to take some action … because strategic procrastination is growing more and more costly. Of the lessons learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most obvious is the need to create and maintain back channels for dialogue. …”