JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Sources of Russian Misconduct; A Diplomat Defects From the Kremlin” – Foreign Affairs/ Boris Bondarev
“… [O]ne of the invasion’s central lessons had to do with something I had witnessed over the preceding two decades: what happens when a government is slowly warped by its own propaganda. … Russian diplomats were made to confront Washington and defend the country’s meddling abroad with lies and non sequiturs. … embrac[ing] bombastic rhetoric and … uncritically parrot … what the Kremlin said …. [T]he target audience … [included] our own leadership. … The war is a stark demonstration of how decisions made in echo chambers can backfire. Putin has failed in his bid to conquer Ukraine, an initiative that he might have understood would be impossible if his government had been designed to give honest assessments. … Russian armed forces [plainly] were not as mighty as the West feared …. [Now] Russia’s military has been substantially weakened, and the country has lost many of its best soldiers. With broad support from NATO, Ukraine is capable of eventually beating Russia …. If defeated, Putin will face a perilous situation at home. … explain[ing] … why he betrayed … expectations. … [and] hav[ing] to tell … families of dead soldiers why they perished for nothing. … at a time when Russians [also] are even worse off [economically] …. He could fail at this task, face widespread backlash, and be shunted aside. He could look for scapegoats and be overthrown by … advisers and deputies he threatens to purge. … Outside analysts … should think twice about rooting for the country’s implosion … not only because it would leave Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal in uncertain hands. Most Russians are in a tricky mental space, brought about by poverty and huge doses of propaganda that sow hatred, fear, and a simultaneous sense of superiority and helplessness. If the country breaks apart or experiences an economic and political cataclysm, it would push them over the edge. Russians might unify behind an even more belligerent leader than Putin, provoking a civil war, more outside aggression, or both. …”