“Russian leader is seen improvising after setbacks. ‘A degree of desperation,’ one academic says.” “… Russia’s repeated ultimatums and U-turns … [and] ever-shifting war aims[] have reinforced the belief among Western government officials that [] Putin is being forced to improvise in a war that has slipped out of his control…. [But] nonetheless they must take what [Putin] says seriously, […]
» Read more
“… Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration … accus[ing] … Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. … The biggest point of tension [recently]… has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal [European] objections … […]
» Read more
“… Zelenskyy said Russia’s new strategy to destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure … would not weaken the country’s resolve to liberate all occupied land, describing the conflict as a ‘war of strength and resilience.’ … insist[ing] there would be no lasting resolution to the war unless Russia withdrew from all [Russian-occupied] territories …. Kyiv has been pushing back at perceived pressure to […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – James Beardsworth – Nov. 24, 2022) As the first snow fell across Ukraine last week, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on Russian positions around Kreminna in a renewed — albeit so far unsuccessful — effort to retake the eastern town. At the same time, Ukrainian special forces were reportedly pushing back Russian troops in the islands […]
» Read more
“… A negotiated solution would … have dire consequences for civilians trapped under Russian occupation. … Ukraine would be expected to give up not just land, but also people. Virtually every settlement … liberated by Ukraine reveals horrifying evidence of torture chambers, large-scale sexual violence, murders of civilians, disappearances and countless other crimes. … Any cease-fire or a peace deal […]
» Read more
Are there prospects for peace in Ukraine amid Russian missile attacks and a winter battlefield stalemate? (opendemocracy.net – Paul Rogers – Nov. 22, 2022) Paul Rogers is Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies in the Department of Peace Studies and International Relations at Bradford University, and an Honorary Fellow at the Joint Service Command and Staff College. With its retreat from […]
» Read more
“… The situation in Ukraine’s … major cities has deteriorated drastically following the largest missile attack on the country’s power grid on Tuesday. … Ukrenergo reported that 40% of Ukrainians were experiencing difficulties, due to damage to at least 15 major energy hubs …. [w]arning that electricity outages could last anywhere from several hours to several days …. Blackouts were […]
» Read more
“Ukrainian officials are asking the U.S. and Europe for parts to fix its electric grid and gas systems.” “… Ukrainian officials have … asked … American counterparts and more than half a dozen European countries for assistance preparing for a prolonged period with limited electricity and gas …. Ukraine needs key components like generators, pipes and valves to repair … […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Alexander Kupatadze – Nov. 17, 2022) Alexander Kupatadze is a senior lecturer at King’s Russia Institute at King’s College London. Since the Euromaidan revolution of 2013-2014, Ukraine has made substantial progress against corruption, in my view. With the help of international donors and non-government groups, Ukrainian authorities have established anti-corruption infrastructure, adopted crucial legislation and […]
» Read more
“Western and Ukrainian officials have said Moscow’s stockpile of missiles was dwindling. But the assaults this week raise questions about that.” “The 96-missile barrage fired across Ukraine on Tuesday was Russia’s biggest aerial attack of the war …. Whether… long planned, as Ukrainian commanders say … a deadly response to Kyiv’s recapture of … Kherson … [it] raises questions about […]
» Read more
“The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict” “The rocket that landed in Poland on November 15th, killing two people, was … not … from Russia. But the Ukrainian interceptor which fell to the ground would never have been launched were it not for Russia’s brutal aerial assault on Ukraine that day — its […]
» Read more
“An argument on Russian state television is a ‘good sign’ that the country’s leadership is cracking, according to [] former U.S. [A]mbassador [McFaul]. Russia [reportedly] has threatened to nationalize assets of Western companies … pull[ing] resources from the country following its [Ukraine] invasion …. Hundreds of companies have already left Russia after expressing dissatisfaction with the war … [I]f the […]
» Read more
“‘There is clearly alarm among central Europeans that this is the beginning of a process that will force Ukraine to accept a deal,’ one analyst said.” “A split appeared to be opening this week among Ukraine’s supporters …. Some U.S. political and military officials have questioned whether the war could ever be concluded through force, with diplomatic talks the inevitable […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Nov. 20, 2022) Kyiv and Moscow on Sunday traded accusations of shelling on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that Russia controls in southern Ukraine. The UN atomic watchdog that has a team of experts at the plant — the biggest nuclear facility in Europe — said “powerful explosions” had occurred on Saturday and Sunday. […]
» Read more
“… Kherson, the only provincial capital captured by Russia since it invaded in February, is back in Ukrainian hands, though Moscow’s forces are still close enough to remain a menace. … [J]oy over the reclamation of Kherson … is tempered by punishing hardships … hunger and shortages of medicine as well as scant electricity, running water and communications. Criminal and […]
» Read more
“‘ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN’; Some are said to be fleeing the country, while others reportedly came extremely close to ousting him this week.” “Nearly nine months into Russia’s war against Ukraine, it seems some of … Putin’s strongmen are laying the groundwork to abandon ship. A human rights group that works closely with Russian inmates and investigates abuses by the security […]
» Read more
“Errant missiles from Ukraine are a reminder that wars can always escalate accidentally.” “If you think the risks of escalation in the Ukraine war are trivial, the tragic deaths of two Polish citizens from an errant Ukrainian air defense missile on Tuesday should give you some pause. … [E]ven if the adversaries are trying to be careful, big wars are […]
» Read more
“Russia’s first mobilization since World War II … is generating dissent and protest on the front lines – and back home. With the Russian government touting that at least 50,000 of the recently drafted are now in Ukraine, a long list of complaints is emerging: Lack of leadership from mid-ranking officers, tactics that lead to heavy casualties, non-existent training, promised […]
» Read more
(U.S. Department of Defense – Nov. 16, 2022) GENERAL MARK A. MILLEY: This is a war of choice — it’s a war of choice for Russia. They embarked on a tremendous strategic mistake. They made a choice in February of this year to illegally invade a country that posed no threat to Russia. In making that choice, Russia established several […]
» Read more
“Just days after the southern city of Kherson was liberated after eight months of Russian occupation, accounts of beatings, torture and disappearances are emerging.” “Olena Naumova’s descent into two weeks of terror began in late August, when three Russian soldiers with automatic rifles banged on her door in … occupied … Kherson. She said they ordered her to turn over […]
» Read more
“A Ukrainian hotline that helps Russian soldiers sent to the frontline surrender has been used thousands of times. Its traffic increased after Russia announced a partial mobilization of civilians. …” Click here for: “This Ukrainian hotline helps Russian soldiers surrender” – NPR
» Read more
“More than 100,000 Russian troops — and about as many Ukrainian troops — are estimated to have died or been injured in the war so far, according to [Joint Chiefs Chairman] Gen. Mark A. Milley. … Some 40,000 civilians have also been killed or injured in the war, [he] said. … Milley’s figure is a sharp increase from the Pentagon’s […]
» Read more
(The White House – Nov. 11, 2022) Q One last one. We’ve seen some more — the Russian pull-out in the Kherson region sort of play out on the ground over the last 24, 48 hours. Has there been any U.S.-Ukrainian contact, discussion, now after that pull-out — engagement regarding negotiations and, you know, sort of — everyone sort of […]
» Read more
“As its budget surplus melts away, so does the Kremlin’s ability to support the embattled economy and fund its offensive in Ukraine.” “Russia’s war in Ukraine and … sanctions … are depleting Moscow’s coffers, hurting … Putin‘s ability to support the economy and fund the military. … add[ing] pressure on the Kremlin, which had been using ample energy revenues … […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – Nov. 9, 2022) Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on Nov. 9 that it was withdrawing its forces to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Ukraine’s Kherson region. The withdrawal, which the Russian top brass began to hint about in mid-October, means that Russia is abandoning the city of Kherson, which has […]
» Read more
“… On today’s battlefields, [Leonid] Bondar’s skills [recovering the remains of fallen soldiers] are a vital part of the embattled nation’s war efforts as it resists Moscow’s invading forces, finding and bringing home Ukraine’s fallen heroes. … [He modestly] plays down his role, saying he does it for the fighters’ families and for the country. By late August, Ukraine’s military […]
» Read more
“… Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure …. successfully attack[ing] 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with … missiles and Iranian drones. … bomb[ing] energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, [reportedly] 80 percent of residents are without water …. Economists project … Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent […]
» Read more
“It’s difficult to discern any real growth in the influence of the hardliners. They are trying to push Putin down a narrow corridor of escalation, but there are no signs that the president is actually listening to them.” “The longer Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, the more prominent the party of war becomes …. Hardly a day goes by without […]
» Read more
“The encouragement is aimed not at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but ensuring it maintains a moral high ground in the eyes of its international backers.” “While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that … Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Michael Kofman – Nov. 4, 2022) Michael Kofman is research program director for the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization focusing on the safety and security of the U.S. This blog post (originally published as “Ukraine Trip Gives New Impressions on Course of the War”) has been adapted with the author’s permission […]
» Read more
“The Russian army is likely threatening to shoot deserters amid low morale as the war against Ukraine continues to expose weaknesses within … Putin’s military, according to a[] [British] assessment …. [T]he UK defense ministry said … that Russian forces have likely started deploying ‘barrier troops’ or ‘blocking units’ to deal with their own retreating soldiers … unwilling to fight […]
» Read more
“Can … Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither … is … very likely. … […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Nov. 4, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that the remaining civilian population should be evacuated from the city of Kherson in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine as all indicators suggested the battle for the strategically key city on the Dnipro River was imminent. “Now, of course, those who live in Kherson must be removed from the […]
» Read more
“… In one fundamental sense little has changed in this war since the end of February. Ukraine is determined to resist the Russian invasion and is both confident in its ability to do so and fearful of the dire consequences should it fail. For the war to end Russia must accept that it cannot subjugate Ukraine and must give up […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Oct. 31, 2022) This is a transcription of an interview by Moscow-based analyst Fyodor Lukyanov for his television program Mezhdunarodnya Panorama that aired in Russian on Oct. 21. Moscow-based analyst Fyodor Lukyanov interviewed Harvard professor Graham Allison for a program that aired in Russian on Oct. 21. Allison, an expert on the Cuban missile crisis, believes the […]
» Read more
(U.S. Department of Defense – Oct. 31, 2022) SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Thanks very much for joining us. Today’s background briefers will include [REDACTED] and me, [REDACTED]. For attribution, please refer to [REDACTED] as “a senior defense official,” and to me as “a senior military official”. And with that, I will turn it over to the senior defense official for opening […]
» Read more
“Diplomatic efforts salvaged a wartime agreement … allow[ing] Ukrainian grain and other commodities to reach world markets, with Russia saying Wednesday it would stick to the deal after Ukraine pledged not to use a designated Black Sea corridor to attack Russian forces. … Russia suspended its participation in the grain deal over the weekend, citing allegations of a Ukrainian drone […]
» Read more
“… Ukraine is advancing on the battlefield and is growing only more determined to expel Russian troops. … [T]he Kremlin reinforces its beleaguered forces …, pounds Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, and hints at the possible use of nuclear weapons. … [T]he United States and its allies are speeding more weapons to Ukraine …. Ukraine, with the West’s help, has […]
» Read more
“While loyal to the Kremlin, a rising number of nationalist critics are taking aim at military commanders as they chart the Ukraine conflict on social media.” “… [There is] a burgeoning group of ‘patriotic’ critics in Russia who support the war, but are concerned by Moscow’s handling of it. They generally avoid criticising Putin directly and instead frequently take aim […]
» Read more
“Russia’s chaotic mobilization of troops has ended, its goals largely met. But the public is still coming to grips with the psychological stresses of the process – and of the ongoing war in Ukraine.” “Under Russia’s Constitution, men have the right to seek alternative service if their health or personal beliefs preclude being drafted into the army. … [T]he Movement […]
» Read more
“Ukrainian forces have … recaptur[ed] wide swaths of Ukrainian territory in the east and northeast. … now … bracing for what could be one of their toughest battles … for the strategically important southern city of Kherson. … For … Ukrainians, taking back this regional capital would be huge for morale — and a strategic win. … set[ting] the stage […]
» Read more
“Previous schedule for outages scrapped, with Zelensky urging residents to limit energy consumption.” “… Yasno, a Ukrainian energy company, wrote … on Thursday that Russia had again hit the power grid in the Kyiv region … Wednesday night. Overall system capacity was … down 30% in the area …. ‘The destruction is serious’ Yasno wrote. ‘Almost half of Kyiv may […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Oct. 27, 2022) The Kremlin blamed the United States for the breakdown in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday, claiming that Kyiv pulled out of negotiations on Washington’s orders. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the two warring sides had drafted a peace deal in March, one month into Moscow’s full-scale invasion, when Kyiv’s delegation suddenly […]
» Read more
“History shows that nothing causes fiscal and monetary instability quite like multiple big, long conflicts.” “… Large-scale war is simultaneously destructive of productive capacity, disruptive of trade, and destabilizing of fiscal and monetary policies. … Economists tend to treat wars as ‘exogenous shocks,’ generally omitting them from their models. From the historian’s standpoint, however, war is not exogenous, but the […]
» Read more
Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2022 From: Sarah Lindemann-Komarova <echosiberia@gmail.com> Subject: Farewell to the Mobilized Farewell to the Mobilized By Sarah Lindemann-Komarova Has lived in Siberia since 1992. Was a community development activist for 20 years. Currently, focuses on research and writing. Text with photos: echosiberia.medium.com/farewell-to-the-mobilized-11502c0d93c8 October 22 was an unseasonably warm Saturday night in the Altai Republic. 8PM and thousands […]
» Read more
“Thousands of Ukrainian children have been transferred to Russia. ‘I didn’t want to go,’ one girl told The New York Times from a foster home near Moscow.” “As … children fled bombed-out group homes and boarding schools[,] [s]eparated from … families, they followed neighbors or strangers heading west, seeking the relative safety of central Ukraine. … [P]ro-Russia forces intercepted them, […]
» Read more
(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Vazha Tavberidze – Oct. 22, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-ukrain-putin-nuclear-escalation-allison/32095783.html) Graham Allison is a Harvard professor and former U.S. defense official with expertise in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and […]
» Read more
“The next six weeks, before fall mud spreads, could allow Ukraine’s military to press forward in the Donbas and potentially retake Kherson, American officials said. But Russia may not be deterred.” “… American officials say there is little chance of a widespread collapse in Russian forces that would allow Ukraine to take another huge swath of territory, …. But individual […]
» Read more
“Belarus looks like it may be planning to enter the war in Ukraine. But that could endanger its own independence, if it hastens its integration with Russia.” “… Belarus appears to be edging toward directly joining in the war, under pressure from Moscow. … [E]xperts say … by doing so, it may ultimately be hastening its own absorption by Russia. […]
» Read more
” As NATO holds nuclear exercises, Western spooks watch Russia’s warheads for any sign of movement.” “… Russia’s and America’s … long-range ‘strategic’ weapons are closely monitored under … New [S]tart … [but] many … can be fired without warning. Satellites and ground radars would spot and track ballistic missiles only after they were fired; low-flying cruise missiles would be […]
» Read more