JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin prefers ‘War-War’ to ‘Jaw-Jaw’” – Lawrence Freedman
“… In one fundamental sense little has changed in this war since the end of February. Ukraine is determined to resist the Russian invasion and is both confident in its ability to do so and fearful of the dire consequences should it fail. For the war to end Russia must accept that it cannot subjugate Ukraine and must give up on its attempt to do so. … By April Kyiv was less interested in helping Russia find a way out. Its behaviour in the occupied territories and persistent efforts to make life as miserable as possible for ordinary Ukrainians by attacking their homes and energy supplies, made it impossible to contemplate rewarding it by conceding … territory. … If … [Putin] fears having to order his troops to withdraw from all of Ukraine because o[f] the anger and recriminations that would follow, then he will struggle to take the initiative even if his forces continue to be pushed back …. If the military retreat at least he can still blame the generals and he has a ready-made excuses for Ukraine’s current strength – the range of support given by the U.S. and its allies to Ukraine. …. Letting events on the bat[t]lefield take their course carries its own dangers for Putin. The spectre of defeat will hang over the Kremlin. The decision-making process will malfunction and frustrations will grow among the elite. Potential successors will start jockeying for position. The military will get caught between their need to conserve forces while not abandoning strategic po[]sitions, between a system demanding success yet incapable of providing the necessary resources. …'”