JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nukespotting: How to detect an imminent Russian nuclear attack” – The Economist
” As NATO holds nuclear exercises, Western spooks watch Russia’s warheads for any sign of movement.”
“… Russia’s and America’s … long-range ‘strategic’ weapons are closely monitored under … New [S]tart … [but] many … can be fired without warning. Satellites and ground radars would spot and track ballistic missiles only after they were fired; low-flying cruise missiles would be harder to detect. Using these weapons is unlikely … because they carry a much higher risk of provoking a war with [NATO], given that they could be mistaken for an attack on the West. … A more feasible option would … one or more of Russia’s 2,000-odd ‘tactical’ weapons, which generally have a smaller explosive power and a shorter range. … Russia’s tactical warheads are held in several dozen storage sites, separate from the planes and missiles … be needed to deliver them. Preparations for their use should thus be detectable. The key is to watch by satellite and other means for the movement of warheads from the storage sites. The warheads would be transported by train or lorry, guarded by … the 12th Main Directorate … responsible for maintaining warheads … accompanied by fire-engines and special recovery vehicles. Military units that would use the weapons might also show unusual activity. All this would probably generate more intense electronic chatter. Western countries know the tell-tale signs ….”