JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Elites Are Starting to Admit the Possibility of Defeat” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“The longer the conflict rages and the more resources the Russian regime throws into the furnace of war, the more isolated Putin may become in his bid for nuclear escalation.”
“… [A] fragile faith [held by the Russian elites] has been rocked by the humiliating Russian retreat from Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the … partial mobilization that looks likely to become a full mobilization, and growing doubts over whether Russia can actually win …. This raises the question of whether the Russian elites are prepared to stick with Putin until the bitter end, particularly amid growing threats to use nuclear weapons. … [T]he idea that Russia will inevitably prevail has started to be overshadowed by doubt over what price Russia is prepared to pay …. The longer the conflict rages and the more resources the Russian regime throws into the … war, the more divided Russia’s elites may become …. Another divisive issue … is the [feared use] … of nuclear weapons …. Putin is prepared to keep going until the bitter end and turn everyone into radioactive dust unless Russia is allowed to win in a way it deems satisfactory. The elites are … [presently] still prepared to support Putin against Ukraine, but their belief that victory is inevitable is fading. … [I]f there is … no victory, that leaves two options: defeat, which would mean the collapse of the Putin regime and … associated risks for the ruling elite, or the nuclear argument, which would mean a universal threat to physical survival. …”