JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is the World’s Foreign-Policy Rorschach Test” – Foreign Policy
“There are two basic ways to think about the war — and the world.”
“… [K]ey decision-makers on both sides view the war as an all-or-nothing struggle with far-reaching global implications — worsening the risk of dangerous escalation the longer it lasts. … [W]hat happens in Ukraine is important but not likely to determine the fate of the planet. … [A] far more important issue for the … world order is whether the United States continues to dominate … the world economy or gradually surrenders that position to China … [and] whether humankind can keep climate change from rendering … other problems trivial …. What happens in Ukraine won’t affect these issues that much unless a prolonged war becomes a costly distraction for the United States and a growing burden on … Europe[] … as China buys cut-rate oil and gas and remains happily aloof from yet another costly and dangerous global conflict. The other way the war in Ukraine could exert a dramatic effect … would be a shattering of the nuclear taboo, especially if … [that] leads to a significant nuclear exchange. … [Hopefully] people with sharply contrasting worldviews could still agree that … no political objectives that would justify [nuclear war].”