“From Moscow to Washington, a lack of clear and achievable strategic goals points to a long conflict.” “Russia’s war on Ukraine is in danger of becoming a protracted struggle … last[ing] several more years. … [F]ront-line combat is a slow-moving slog… [and] none of the main actors have political goals … both clear and attainable. Ukraine’s central war aim — […]
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“Is Russia’s future aligned with China? Many in Moscow think so, seeing the two countries’ visions aligning not just geopolitically, but also ideologically – though it may cost Russia considerably.” “… Russia’s turn toward Asia, and China in particular, has been greatly accelerated by souring relations with the West …. Western sanctions [have] made it a matter of urgent necessity […]
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“Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects.” “The Russian central bank’s jumbo interest-rate increase to halt a tumbling ruble … points to a new reality …. The government has flooded the Russian economy with money to keep … troops in Ukraine supplied […]
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“Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.” “… [T]otal … Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since … [the wholesale invasion] 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said …. caution[ing] that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate … […]
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“Recommendations Adopt more-specific ways of describing adversary actions than ‘malign influence.’ Tailored deterrence strategies require a more precise definition …. Align U.S. forward presence to reinforce clear deterrence logics …. Clarify the logic of bomber task force and naval presence missions to ensure that the deployments strengthen deterrence …. Consider cost in the implementation of force employment concepts, differentiating between […]
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“… Of course, none of us really understood what democracy was at that time, since generations of Soviet people did not have the experience. I didn’t understand that we have to fight for freedom every day — excellent laws and even parliamentary decisions are not enough. I did not suspect that under capitalism, which then seemed to many an ideal […]
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“Opinion research indicates that there are no red lines in Russian society, just passive conformity on national security issues.” “… The hard truth is that[,] at the moment, the Kremlin does not intend to use nuclear weapons and so the only hydrogen bomb rhetoric comes from the occasional pro-Kremlin commentator in the media. And yet, if the government did decide […]
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“[From July 12, 2023:] [NATO] leaders said they were removing obstacles on Ukraine’s membership path so that it can join more quickly once the war with Russia is over. For many, that argument gives Russia’s president a pretext to prolong the war, which … Putin ostensibly launched to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. But if Ukraine joins NATO in the […]
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“Russia added $600 billion of total wealth last year … [according to Swiss bank] UBS …. The number of millionaires and ultra-high-net-worth individuals also rose, despite the war in Ukraine …. … [T]he U.S. and Europe shed trillions of dollars worth of wealth, [UBS] reported. …” “UBS acknowledges … ‘wealth trends in Russia are difficult to determine …’ …. Rising […]
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“… Ukrainians have buried their political disputes in the name of national unity. But some are starting to believe that the tacit ban on discussion of controversial topics has outlived its usefulness. … Ukraine is fighting this war to maintain not only its statehood but also its democracy. … [S]urely the freedom to ask uncomfortable questions of those in power […]
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“It’s time to start taking the potential disintegration of Russia seriously. A number of analysts see the shattering of the Russian Federation as a possible aftermath of … Putin’s catastrophic war in Ukraine. Although the world would be better off with a much weakened Russia, its fall may not go smoothly. … Is unpredictability likely to increase if Russia experiences […]
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“Almost all Ukrainians think the country has a problem with corruption, survey suggests.” “… On Friday, Zelenskyy said he dismissed the heads of Ukraine’s regional-military committees as investigations into corruption in Ukraine continued, particularly in its armed-forces recruitment. ‘We are dismissing all regional military commissars,’ a [Zelenskyy Telegram] statement … said. ‘This system should be run by people who know […]
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“… NATO enlargement isn’t the cause of … Putin’s full-scale war against Ukraine. But Putin’s aggression is the primary cause of NATO taking Ukrainian membership more seriously, and it led Finland and Sweden to do something that was (highly) unlikely until February 2022: to seek to join the alliance. … NATO enlargement provided for greater security and stability across Central […]
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“As the Ukrainian military grinds forward in a costly summer offensive that hasn’t … produced a breakthrough, there’s … palpable frustration in Kyiv and … Washington. … Whatever else you might say about the Ukraine war, …. Ukraine has proved utterly indigestible for the Russian military. Putin’s assault on Kyiv in the early months was a disastrous failure. The porcupine […]
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“… [I]t is important to recognize that Russia was never a state in the common usage of the term. Unlike … modern Turk[ey] … or Great Britain, which acquired and lost an empire, Russia never had an identity separate from empire. As British historian Geoffrey Hosking observed, ‘Britain had an empire, but Russia was an empire.’ The … narrative of […]
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“For nearly 18 months, Ukraine has stood against its Russian invaders — rallying support … embracing last year’s battlefield victories in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Those wins carried beleaguered Ukrainians through a winter of airstrikes on civilian infrastructure and a brutal and symbolic battle for Bakhmut …. Ukrainian officials and … Western partners hyped up a coming counteroffensive […]
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“… Putin wants to lead Russians into a civilizational conflict with the West far larger than Ukraine. Will they follow him?” “I spent a month in Russia … searching for clues that might explain its nationalist lurch into an unprovoked war and its [current] mood …. The war … [reportedly] has … taken 200,000 lives since Feb. 24, 2022, roughly […]
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“According to the country’s historical experience, if the Russian state exists in its current form, it will not engage in sincere negotiations, or sign a peace deal in good faith.” “… Russia’s current war against Ukraine can’t easily end via negotiations. It falls into a long historical pattern … part of a larger pathology making stable peace unfeasible … [as […]
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“Mediation offers from China aren’t made in good faith.” “Skyrocketing costs for fuel and food in the global south due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are spurring mediation offers … from China, the African Union, and even Saudi Arabia. … Secretary of State Antony Blinken has welcomed these initiatives … to woo support from countries that have not condemned Russia […]
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“Russian soprano Anna Netrebko … sued the Metropolitan Opera and its general manager Friday, alleging discrimination when the company dropped her after Russia invaded Ukraine. The suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, includes claims of national origin discrimination, breach of contract and defamation. Netrebko [seeks] at least $360,000 in damages, citing lost […]
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“A Russian assassination would deprive Ukraine’s war effort of one of its most valuable assets.” “… While it’s a question Zelenskyy understandably isn’t eager to contemplate, it’s also one his supporters at home and abroad can’t afford to ignore. … Russian lawmakers and ultra-nationalist military bloggers have formed a chorus demanding he be targeted. Zelenskyy’s status as a symbol of […]
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“… 31 percent of eligible [U.S.] voters … support or strongly support American military forces heading to the battlefields of Ukraine, [according to] polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies …. A quarter of respondents neither supported nor opposed the idea … with 34 percent against …. Just under one in ten … did not know. … […]
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“… As long as Russian troops squat in a swathe of some 18% of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine cannot be a properly functional state. It has lost access to most of its shoreline. … [T]he seas are not safe for its vessels, even those transporting food …. No commercial aircraft can fly in or out … for fear of a Russian […]
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“… Ukraine [reportedly] now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades …. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots. … Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia [reportedly] will use artillery […]
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(Moscow Times – Aug. 3, 2023) At least 79 civilians have been killed on Russian soil since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, the independent news website 7×7 reported Tuesday. The Belgorod region which borders Ukraine, which has regularly been targeted by drone attacks and shelling, saw the highest share of civilian losses, with 48 people killed. Other […]
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“The report by Special Counsel John Durham makes clear beyond a shred of doubt that the Russia Hoax was the most atrocious weaponization of our government in American history. … a crime like no other. … [A]n unelected cabal in the senior ranks of our government, in concert with their chosen candidate, Hillary Clinton, and their allies in the media, […]
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“Ukraine fought back with determination and smarts … halting Moscow’s advances and … driving Russian troops back from roughly half of the territory they seized in the last year and a half. As a result, Ukraine’s military looks far more powerful and Russia’s looks far weaker than virtually everyone expected. … [T]he entire shape of the war is very different […]
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“… [R]etired Australian general [Mick Ryan] described the defensive lines … Russia … built in Ukraine as ‘much more complex and deadly than anything experienced by any military in nearly 80 years.’ … [and that] breaking through … would require the best of combined-arms operational skills …. [Earlier] [s]atellite imagery … showed Russia strengthening its 600-mile front line with minefields, […]
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“U.S. is competing with a partnership between the two countries but has fewer icebreakers and ports, and less experience” “… [I]n the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming … in a double line near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. … [T]he main Chinese ship [was] the Nanchang, one of a new […]
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“One of … Putin’s central — and false — justifications for invading Ukraine, that he was defending Russian-speaking people, has backfired …. [A]cross Ukraine, people started bringing … Russian literature to local recycling stations …. Street names have been changed to honor Ukrainian heroes instead of Russian writers. Russian dishes … have been relabeled on restaurant menus. Radio stations stopped […]
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“… U.S. officials had looked ahead to the … long-planned counteroffensive as the best hope for turning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a decisive failure, forcing Putin to sue for peace. …. At a minimum, Ukraine would emerge … as a strong and independent nation, boasting a Western-backed military more than capable of blocking any new Russian aggression …. [T]hings […]
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“Next week, Ukraine will begin negotiations with the United States on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees under the Joint Declaration of Support …. These guarantees will be valid until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO. This was announced by Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak at the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities …. Andriy Yermak emphasized [that] […]
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“… In the days before a Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg on July 27th, … Putin published an article … to justify why he has abandoned the grain deal …. Promising to make up the shortfall, he wrote that the ‘so-called’ deal solely enriched Western businesses, and that promises to exempt Russian exports from sanctions had been broken. Pretty much […]
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“After holding back many of its units trained and armed by the West, Ukraine is now committing them, the officials said, but it remained unclear whether a full-scale assault was taking place.” “… Other American officials cautioned … the latest Ukrainian attack might be preparatory operations for the main thrust or perhaps just reinforcements to replenish war-weary units. The challenge […]
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“Russia blames U.S. ‘pressure’ for absences at Africa summit Summit takes place after Russia quit Black Sea grain deal” “… Putin [met] African leaders 10 days after Russia ended the Ukraine grain-export deal brokered by the [UN] and Turkey that had ensured safe passage of almost 33 million tons of crops via the Black Sea, helping to cool surging world […]
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“Kyiv’s forces are backed by thousands of troops and Western arms as U.S. official says: ‘This is the big test’” “… An enlarged Ukrainian force, whose ranks are swelled with Western-trained troops, and around 100 Western-supplied armoured vehicles, hope[d] to advance south to sever a land bridge to Crimea. The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, […]
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“Throughout its history, the Russian currency has been a symbol and an instrument of centralized and autocratic power.” “When reading Ekaterina Pravilova’s original, fascinating and meticulously researched ‘The Ruble’ it is a good idea to keep in mind its subtitle: ‘A Political History.’ For [her] multi-layered account of the evolution of the paper ruble from … the mid-18th century until […]
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“Since [Putin] withdrew on July 17 from a year-old agreement that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting … wheat and corn through the Black Sea … Putin has compounded the harm not only to [Ukraine] but also to millions … across the world who rely on it for grain. … [W]ithin hours, Russia unleashed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s export […]
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“Administration’s hopes that Kyiv could negotiate with Moscow fade with slow progress on the ground.” “… A potential stalemate would test … Biden’s stated strategy of pouring billions … in military aid into Ukraine, to enable Kyiv to negotiate … from a position of strength. It could also challenge the West’s continuing ability to supply weaponry … already in short […]
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“… Putin is Xi Jinping’s No. 1 good fellow as the two countries make common cause against the United States[] [b]ut … would be wise to keep in mind China’s track record. … Mikhail Kapitsa, a top Soviet foreign ministry official, [said] in 1982, ‘The Chinese never befriend anyone for a long time.’ The Chinese Communist Party’s approach to geopolitics […]
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“U.S. and Kyiv knew of shortfalls but Kyiv still launched offensive” “… [M]inefields, extensive fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block significant advances by Ukrainian troops. … [T]he campaign risks descending into a stalemate with the potential to burn through lives and equipment without a major shift in momentum. As the likelihood of any large-scale breakthrough by […]
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“… Increasingly, various governing bodies are allowing [Russian athletes] back into Olympic qualifying competitions as neutral competitors without national flags or anthems. Most sports initially barred Russians from competing soon after last year’s full-scale invasion [of Ukraine]. The International Olympic Committee strongly backs those moves even as the body itself says it hasn’t decided if athletes from Russia and ally […]
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“CIA Director William Burns said that a recent uprising by a mercenary group in Russia exposed ‘signs of weakness’ in … Putin’s regime and contributed to growing discontent among Russians. … The spy chief said this turbulence in Russia, and growing disaffection with the war in Ukraine was creating fertile ground for the CIA to recruit Russians to spy on […]
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“Swift loss of several tanks and infantry fighting vehicles has jolted Ukraine and its Western backers” “Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched at the start of June, is aimed at retaking some of the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow. The West provided dozens of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and trained thousands of Ukrainian troops for the campaign. … Kyiv’s […]
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“… A gloomy mood has been gathering this summer about the war. Partly, it’s a matter of perceptions: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been advancing more slowly than many in the West had hoped, even though Ukraine is maintaining its deliberate strategy of patience … [T]he NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, was contentious, despite a pro-Ukraine commitment … that continues to […]
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Twenty-two countries … have formally applied to join bloc Putin skipping summit out of consideration for BRICS: Sooklal “More than 40 nations have indicated an interest in joining the BRICS bloc of major developing economies as it seeks to expand to grow its political clout, [according to Anil Sooklal,] South Africa’s ambassador to the group …. Brazil, Russia, India and […]
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“William J. Burns gave the most detailed public account yet by a U.S. official of the damage done to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia by last month’s uprising by the mercenary group” “… [C.I.A. Director] Burns … said that for much of the 36 hours of the [Wagner] rebellion last month, Russian security services, the military and decision makers […]
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“… Biden’s decision to give cluster munitions to Ukraine triggered widespread concern and protests, given that … the bombs … break up into smaller-sized bomblets … indiscriminately blanket[ing] the target area … result[ing] in the slaughter of civilians …. Even close allies like Canada and the UK bristled at the move to provide Kyiv with arms … banned by over […]
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“Russia and Ukraine both reluctant to cede territory, but some Western allies are losing patience.” “… The G7 recently made significant financial and military commitments to keep Ukraine armed and able to defend itself even after the conflict ends, however it may end. … sometimes called the porcupine approach, ensuring Ukraine has enough muscle to stop a re-invasion …. Ukraine […]
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“The recent public discussion in Russia on using nuclear weapons against the West was really a discussion about how Moscow can extricate itself from the difficult situation in which it finds itself—and what price it is willing to pay for a victory.” “Does Russia have the right to carry out a nuclear first strike, and has the time come to […]
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